The inflation rate for this year could be higher than previous estimates, according to the T\u00e1naiste and Minister for Finance.<\/p>\n
Simon Harris has told the Budgetary Oversight Committee that the latest assessment from his department is that inflation for 2026 could reach 3.75%.<\/p>\n
This compares with an expected average of 3.3% outlined last month in the spring forecast.<\/p>\n
At that time, the Department of Finance outlined three possible scenarios for inflation for the year.<\/p>\n
Mr Harris told the Committee on Budgetary Oversight that while the most benign scenario envisaged headline inflation of 3.3%, “Under an adverse scenario involving a more prolonged period of elevated energy prices, inflation could average around 3.75% this year, and in a severe scenario, inflation could average around 4.5% this year, with year-end inflation significantly higher”.<\/p>\n
Minister Harris told the committee today that “while the situation remains fluid, my department’s latest assessment is that we are currently operating closer to the adverse scenario.<\/p>\n
“Though that assessment may evolve further depending on developments in the Middle East.”<\/p>\n
Mr Harris said that if it were not for the war on Iran, the Government would be revising upwards growth forecasts, rather than downward. <\/p>\n
The current 3.75% inflation projection is almost 2% higher than the Department of Finance forecast from earlier this year, which was 1.8%.<\/p>\n
However, the Minister for Finance also told the committee that “the central message is that the economy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but at a more moderate pace than we have seen in recent years and with higher inflation”.<\/p>\n
Latest figures from the Central Statistics Office from earlier this month show that consumer prices rose by 3.7% in the year to April – which is the highest annual inflation rate since the beginning of 2024.<\/p>\n
The increase was largely driven by energy-price rises – including for home heating oil, which has surged in cost by more than 80% in the past year.<\/p>\n
The inflation assessment was included in the Annual Progress Report 2026, on which Minister Harris and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers are updating the committee.<\/p>\n
Fine Gael TD Joe Neville raised the IMF’s concern over the relative weakness of Ireland’s tax base compared to increasing expenditure.<\/p>\n
Mr Harris welcomed the annual visit by the IMF, and questioned some media framing of that visit.<\/p>\n
The visit is a reminder of some of the challenges and vulnerabilities the economy faces, he said, adding that the IMF is an important voice and good discussions were held.<\/p>\n
Mr Chambers defended the Government’s charting of a “sustainable fiscal path”.<\/p>\n
Mr Harris also said the “prize” is to create “structural changes”, rather than frequent cost-of-living support measures, and that this is what the Government wants to achieve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The inflation rate for this year could be higher than previous estimates, according to the T\u00e1naiste and Minister…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":605346,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-605345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=605345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605345\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/605346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=605345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=605345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=605345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}