Maja Chwalinska v Mirra Andreeva (1400 BST)<\/p>\n
I never thought I\u2019d see the day when a qualifier won a Grand Slam title but that\u2019s exactly what Emma Raducanu did at the 2021 US Open.<\/p>\n
It was a stunning, jaw-dropping achievement. Unique.<\/p>\n
It may not be come Saturday evening for, less than five years later, we have another qualifier in a final, namely Maja Chwalinska.<\/p>\n
As world number 114, Chwalinska is the lowest-ranked player to reach the Roland Garros final, taking that record from her compatriot Iga Swiatek, who was ranked 54 when she won in 2020.<\/p>\n
This will actually be her first-ever tour-level final. The only other players to reach their maiden tour-level final at a Grand Slam are Venus Williams and Raducanu.<\/p>\n
These fact and stats may be mind-blowing but, of course, I\u2019m here to write about how this contest might unfold.<\/p>\n
Well, Chwalinska will surely look to stick with her winning formula \u2013 strong on defence and mix things up with slices and her remarkable drop shots.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a game which has already taken down seeds Diana Shnaider and Anna Kalinskaya (only one set has been lost in nine matches during her Roland Garros run) but the quality rises a notch or two here.<\/p>\n
In fact, this will be Chwalinska\u2019s first-ever meeting with a top-10 player and, frankly, it\u2019s hard to pick holes in Andreeva\u2019s game right now.<\/p>\n
The 19-year-old has demolished her opponents in the last four rounds, losing a total of just 17 games across those matches. Even when she did drop a set in round two against Marina Bassols Ribera, she duly won the next two 6-1 6-1. <\/p>\n
Andreeva is a more aggressive player than she was when making the semis here two years ago, yet the court craft remains and she\u2019ll ensure Chwalinska isn\u2019t the only one showing off her shot variety on Court Philippe Chatrier.<\/p>\n
She\u2019s been particularly strong on serve, holding 87% of the time at the tournament so far. That\u2019s well ahead of Chwalinska (76%) and she also holds the advantage in return games won (57%-53%).<\/p>\n
One area where the Pole has out-performed Andreeva has been on second serve points won (59-53) but I\u2019m still thinking this match is largely in the hands of the Russian.<\/p>\n
She\u2019s looked very comfortable throughout the tournament with her semi-final foe Marta Kostyuk saying after being vanquished: “I think that this court suits her best of all the tournaments that exist.”<\/p>\n
One potential issue is nerves.<\/p>\n
Andreeva did admit to being “very, very nervous” before her clash with Kostyuk and you never really know how players will react when competing in a Grand Slam final for the first time. I\u2019ve seen several fail to cope at all, most memorably Amanda Anisimova in last year\u2019s Wimbledon final.<\/p>\n
However, one thing in the favourite\u2019s favour here is that her coach, Conchita Martinez, brings plenty of experience on that score.<\/p>\n
The Spaniard is a former Wimbledon champion, one who also reached the final here in 2000.<\/p>\n
The grounded Martinez certainly seems to have kept her teenage charge in check, adding a solid tactical base to her game.<\/p>\n
It was interesting to hear Andreeva talk confidently about that aspect after her semi-final victory.<\/p>\n
She said: “Now I feel like I’m getting closer, I’m getting older, a little bit more mature every match I play, a little bit more experience.<\/p>\n
“I think that now I’m able to approach every match differently and try to really focus on the opponent that I’m going to play against and the game plan that I’m going to have to use on the court.”<\/p>\n
With a bigger, more-experienced team behind her, Andreeva should be well prepared for what lies ahead and, in any case, the nerves factor could just as easily be an issue for her opponent.<\/p>\n
The Chwalinska story has been a brilliant one for the sport but I don\u2019t think it gets its fairytale ending.<\/p>\n
My eyes tell me Andreeva has the extra quality here. She herself has spoken about being “in the zone”, while the rankings show a gap of more than 100 places.<\/p>\n
Andreeva has been a comfortable winner in all her matches so far and so the bet for me is the straight-sets one \u2013 you can get 3\/4 about a 2-0 Andreeva success.<\/p>\n
Under 20.5 games at a slightly-better 5\/6 is an alternative to consider given how easily Andreeva has been winning this past fortnight.<\/p>\n
In the sub-markets, I thought we might get another shot at the Chwalinska \u2018no aces\u2019 bet, one I highlighted earlier in the week.<\/p>\n
She\u2019s now failed to serve an ace in 16 of her last 20 matches.<\/p>\n
Sadly, the bookies have wised up and are no longer offering odds-against about this outcome, so I\u2019ll stick with the one bet here.<\/p>\n
Posted at 15:45 BST on 05\/06\/26<\/p>\n
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