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The world is edging dangerously close to the Paris Agreement\u2019s 1.5\u00b0C warming threshold, with human-induced warming reaching 1.37\u00b0C in 2025, a major new report warns.<\/p>\n
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If emissions continue at current levels, the 1.5\u00b0C limit will be crossed around 2030, according to the analysis by more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries.<\/p>\n
The fourth edition of the Indicators of Global Climate Change<\/a> (IGCC), published today (11 June) in the journal Earth System Science Data, tracks the key measurements that tell us how fast the climate is changing and why. It paints a clear picture: the Earth is warming at an accelerating rate, driven almost entirely by human activity.<\/p>\n \u201cOur study shows greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels,\u201d says Dr. William Lamb, Senior Researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany. <\/p>\n \u201cThe good news is that solutions are already available. By investing in renewables<\/a> and electrification, governments can cut emissions while building cleaner, more reliable and more secure energy systems.\u201d<\/p>\n World\u2019s carbon budget will be exhausted in three years<\/p>\n The carbon budget \u2013 the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted while keeping warming less than 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels \u2013 now stands at just 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026. At current emissions<\/a> levels, that will be exhausted in around three years.<\/p>\n The 1.5-degree limit is the cornerstone of the 2015 Paris Agreement<\/a>, an international treaty designed to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis.<\/p>\n Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, driven mainly by the burning of fossil fuels<\/a>. Concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases \u2013 carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide \u2013 have all risen since 2019, with CO2 now at 425.6 parts per million.<\/p>\n \u201cIt comes down to a simple principle: we are emitting more greenhouse gases<\/a> than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance,\u201d says Dr Matt Palmer, science fellow at the UK Met Office.<\/p>\n The report also found that the Earth\u2019s energy imbalance \u2013 the gap between the heat entering the planet and the heat escaping it \u2013 has more than doubled in recent decades and is now at a record high. This means the planet is storing heat faster than at any point in modern measurements.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Earth\u2019s energy imbalance is growing fast, driving changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and continental warming<\/a>, permafrost thawing, ice loss, and sea level rise,\u201d says Dr Karina Von Schuckmann from French research institute Mercator Ocean International.<\/p>\n Sea are rising and getting warmer<\/p>\n Global sea levels<\/a> reached a new record in 2025 \u2013 23cm of rise since 1901 \u2013 and the rate is accelerating. The oceans are absorbing much of the excess heat, with average sea surface temperatures hitting their second highest level on record last year.<\/p>\n