Millions of homes are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).<\/p>\n
As hotter, drier summers<\/a> driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property\u2019s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England\u2019s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.<\/p>\n Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, said: \u201cBy combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.<\/p>\n Most are in the London<\/a> area and that\u2019s also where you\u2019re going to see bigger changes in rainfall and temperature. It\u2019s a double whammy.\u201d<\/p>\n London also has a higher density of buildings. Harrison added: \u201cThese properties might have foundations that currently can withstand the changes in moisture, but you might find in future there\u2019s going to be more movement. It\u2019s probably going to get worse.\u201d<\/p>\n Subsidence can substantially reduce a property\u2019s value and lenders will often refuse to offer mortgages until it has been resolved. Signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. It can require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin a property. In some cases, utility pipes need to be replaced and trees and vegetation removed.<\/p>\n In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. There were \u00a3153m of subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months<\/a> of the same year. With climate crisis projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink-swell is on the rise.<\/p>\n The dataset forecasts that, by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned to the Paris climate agreement<\/a>. This rises to more than 1.8m properties under a medium scenario, closest to current global emissions trajectories.<\/p>\n