\n\tPharmarack data indicates elevated stock levels across several recently launched brands amid slower-than-expected liquidation in the trade channel. The slowdown reflects a cooling in demand after the initial launch rush, with doctors limiting prescriptions and new patients not being added at the same pace as earlier. This is because doctors have become more selective in prescribing obesity drugs, and regulators, including the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation, have increased oversight around their use.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tDistributors could begin returning stocks if liquidation does not improve over the next one to two months, particularly because semaglutide products require cold-chain storage and are occupying refrigerator space typically used for vaccines and insulin.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tInventory data from Pharmarack, for May 2026, showed multiple generic semaglutide brands carrying more than 45 days of inventory, signalling an inventory overhang after the molecule went off patent earlier this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tAmong the highest inventory levels, Dr Reddy\u2019s Mashlo was carrying 71 days of inventory in May, while Glenmark Pharmaceuticals\u2019 Glipiq had 69 days and Obeda 57 days. Mankind Pharma\u2019s Semaglu was carrying 62 days of inventory, Abbott\u2019s Extensior 51 days, while Zydus Lifesciences\u2019 Mashema and Semaglyn had 53 days and 46 days of inventory, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tIn contrast, innovator brands Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus from Novo Nordisk maintained lower inventory levels of 27 days, 24 days, and 22 days, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tCompanies that entered the semaglutide market with annual sales targets of around \u20b9200 crore would likely have ensured sufficient inventory availability for at least the first six months after launch.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tHowever, monthly sales for most major players remain below the implied \u20b920 crore run rate, suggesting that inventory was front-loaded into the channel while liquidation has yet to keep pace with initial expectations. \u201cThe stocks lying at distributor level are significant and there has already been an inventory pileup,\u201d said Sheetal Sapale, vice-president (commercial), Pharmarack, adding that distributors are also facing cold-chain storage pressure because semaglutide products require refrigeration.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tA Mumbai-based pharma company executive, speaking on condition of anonymity, said companies typically stock inventory sufficient for four to six months after launch and the current trends are more reflective of evolving market dynamics in a newly launched and relatively niche therapy segment rather than a clear demand slowdown.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tPricing actions by innovators, including price reductions that have brought products closer to their generic counterparts, may also be influencing prescription patterns. Despite some inventory buildup, the executive claimed that on-ground feedback continues to indicate healthy physician interest and sustained patient uptake.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tSome industry watchers also believe that the current demand-supply dynamics in the semaglutide market are likely to stabilise over time. \u201cThere may have been some inventory buildup in the last month, but that does not define the overall market,\u201d said Nirali Shah, research analyst at Ashika Group. \u201cDemand on the ground remains robust and patient uptake is expected to increase further in the coming months.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tMore than 50 branded versions of generic semaglutide were launched by Indian drugmakers in March 2026 following patent expiry, as companies sought to capitalise on strong demand for obesity and diabetes therapies.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tThe broader market remains sizeable despite signs of inventory accumulation. According to Pharmarack data, India\u2019s glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonist market, comprising semaglutide and tirzepatide products, expanded to about \u20b91,906 crore in May 2026 from \u20b9565 crore a year earlier, driven largely by the launch of lower-cost generic semaglutide products after patent expiry. However, trade-channel checks suggest that while demand remains healthy, the pace of fresh patient onboarding may be moderating after the initial launch surge.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tShehla Shaikh, endocrinologist at Saifee Hospital, said the initial surge in semaglutide prescriptions was driven by pent-up demand from patients who had previously been unable to access the therapy because of its high cost. With lower-priced Indian versions entering the market, many eligible patients were initiated on treatment simultaneously, leading to a sharp spike in prescriptions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tHowever, she said that prescription growth is expected to gradually stabilise as the therapy becomes more targeted towards clinically appropriate patients requiring long-term treatment for diabetes and obesity. \u201cSemaglutide is not a short-term therapy and requires careful monitoring, dose titration, and follow-up,\u201d she said, adding that prescription volumes are likely to eventually plateau after the initial onboarding phase.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\tThe inventory buildup comes even as the broader GLP-1 market continues to expand rapidly. As reported earlier by Business Standard, growth in the segment has begun to moderate after the initial surge triggered by generic semaglutide launches, suggesting that the market may be entering a more sustainable phase of expansion.\u00a0
\n\t \u00a0<\/p>\n
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