{"id":635447,"date":"2026-06-12T20:15:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T20:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/635447\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T20:15:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T20:15:09","slug":"united-kingdom-growth-resilience-but-softer-inflation-deutsche-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/635447\/","title":{"rendered":"United Kingdom: Growth resilience but softer inflation \u2013 Deutsche Bank"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank\u2019s Sanjay Raja says the UK economy is tracking close to the Bank of England\u2019s Scenario A, with stronger\u2011than\u2011expected early\u20112026 GDP<\/a> but a cooling labour market and easing price pressures. GDP is seen around 1% in 2026\u201327, while CPI is projected slightly below Scenario A and potentially under the 2% target at longer horizons.<\/p>\n

Scenario A path for growth and CPI<\/p>\n

“The economy – at least on the surface – has been stronger than the Bank assumed. GDP growth, to start the year, was stronger than the Bank anticipated. But the labour market has softened a touch, relative to the Bank’s expectations.”<\/p>\n

“Relative to the MPC\u2019s scenarios, we see GDP growth tracking closer to Scenario A, with output a little more resilient on the back of stronger catch up in Q1-26. Q2-26 GDP growth looks poised to push closer to 0.1-0.2% q-o-q. And annual GDP growth this year looks set to be at the BoE<\/a> staff projection of 0.9%, with growth likely to push upwards of 1%.”<\/p>\n

“Based on current market conditions, GDP growth is expected to push a little past all three Bank scenario projections this year. Incorporating the stronger Q1-26, we would expect Bank projections, under current market conditions, to have increased to 1% (Scenario A: 0.8%). GDP growth in year 2 (2027), we expect, would also stay steady at 1% \u2013 broadly consistent with the Bank’s Scenario A & B.”<\/p>\n

“On inflation, based on current market conditions, we would expect CPI to remain slightly below the Bank’s Scenario A projections. If we applied the same conditioning assumptions to Scenario B, headline CPI would likely sit 0.1pp to 0.15pp below the Bank’s projections at both the two-year and three-year forecast horizons \u2013 pushing headline CPI below the Bank’s 2% target.”<\/p>\n

“Based on current market pricing and recent outturns, the UK economic trajectory remains closest to the Bank’s Scenario A.”<\/p>\n

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank\u2019s Sanjay Raja says the UK economy is tracking close to the Bank of England\u2019s Scenario A,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":590531,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-635447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/635447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=635447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/635447\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/590531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=635447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=635447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=635447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}