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El Ni\u00f1o, nature’s chaotic climate agent, has formed in a warmed-up Pacific Ocean and is expected to grow to historic strength, meteorologists announced on 11 June.<\/p>\n
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Experts said the El Ni\u00f1o, a natural warming cycle, should further heat a globe already warming from fossil fuel pollution and will likely turbocharge extreme weather across the planet. <\/p>\n
Meteorologists forecast it will rival \u2013 or exceed \u2013 a record El Ni\u00f1o that began in 1997 and helped trigger billions of dollars in damage from heatwaves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires.<\/p>\n
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed the existence of the El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, which is a warming of the Pacific near the equator that affects weather patterns across the globe. NOAA’s announcement said there’s a 63 per cent chance that the El Ni\u00f1o will get so intense this late fall and early winter that it \u201cwould rank among the largest El Ni\u00f1o events in the historical record going back to 1950\u201d.<\/p>\n The warm, deep waters of an El Ni\u00f1o affect weather patterns by bringing \u201ca lot of extra heat to the surface, fuelling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world,\u201d says Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier.<\/p>\n She says, especially in the Pacific, \u201cit can get dire very quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres described El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> as an \u201curgent climate warning.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,\u201d Guterres said in a video message.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o’s impacts spawn winners and losers<\/p>\n The weather pattern’s effects vary by region. El Ni\u00f1o often dampens \u2013 but doesn’t eliminate \u2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the US East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger, Frazier says.<\/p>\n The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists say. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America \u2013 where the first El Ni\u00f1os were noticed decades ago \u2013 often get heavy rain and floods<\/a>, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heatwaves, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia.<\/p>\n Northeastern Africa is likely going to get weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains, says Columbia University climate scientist and El Ni\u00f1o expert Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.<\/p>\n In the US, El Ni\u00f1os can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but they also tend to generally benefit the US agriculture industry, says Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.<\/p>\n Michael Ferrari, meteorologist and head of research at the investment research firm Moby, says conditions for grains and seed, especially soybeans, look favourable in 18 major growing states, but are more mixed when it comes to dairy and cattle.<\/p>\n The northern Rockies and Southwest \u2013 where there\u2019s an \u201coff the charts\u201d snow drought<\/a> \u2013 could get some strong summer rains, Gottschalck says. The biggest effect in the US is often in the winter, when the south can get wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.<\/p>\n But overall, temperatures raised by the weather pattern can dampen American economic growth, says Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke. Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of lagging effects of this El Ni\u00f1o, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have pretty clear evidence that the US economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal,\u201d Burke says.<\/p>\n Strong early signs of El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n The weather extremes caused by an El Ni\u00f1o also depend on when it develops.<\/p>\n Usually El Ni\u00f1os form in the summer, peak in the late fall or early winter, and peter out the next spring, scientists say.<\/p>\n However, Ehsan’s team forecasts that this El Ni\u00f1o will peak a month or two earlier based on strong early signs from recent weeks. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi says large El Ninos like these also tend to last longer<\/a>.<\/p>\n The early indications \u2013 including warmer water pushing toward the surface of the Pacific \u2013 have been so strong and noticeable that forecasters have all been predicting the same ultra strong El Ni\u00f1o, Vecchi says, adding that El Nino forecasts often are all over the place at this time of year.<\/p>\n Scientists predict stronger El Ni\u00f1os as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas<\/a>, Frazier and others say. But she says it is too early to say if this El Ni\u00f1o is part of that.<\/p>\n Even before it officially formed, this El Ni\u00f1o has gotten nicknames ranging from \u201csuper\u201d to \u201cGodzilla\u201d.<\/p>\n