Societe Generale\u2019s Sam Cartwright notes that UK Headline CPI stayed at 2.8% year-on-year in May, undershooting both Bloomberg consensus and the BoE\u2019s April MPR projection, while core inflation edged up to 2.6%. He highlights that stronger services and fuel inflation were counterbalanced by weaker food and goods prices, with specific base effects and airfare dynamics driving services.<\/p>\n
Services and fuel drive May CPI mix<\/p>\n
“Headline CPI remained at 2.8% yoy in May, 0.2pp below the Bloomberg median estimate and 0.5pp below the BoE\u2019s estimate in the April MPR, while core inflation rose by 0.1pp to 2.6% yoy.”<\/p>\n
“Stronger services inflation was offset by downside surprises in food and goods”<\/p>\n
“Services inflation rose by 0.5pp to to 3.7% yoy, 0.2pp below the BoE\u2019s April MPR estimate.”<\/p>\n
“Within services, a positive base effect, stemming from the ONS correction to last year\u2019s overestimated rise in Vehicle Excise Duty, added 0.25pp to services.”<\/p>\n
“In addition, the Easter-related weakness in April airfares unwound, contributing a further 0.15pp to services inflation, while transport by sea added just under 0.1pp.”<\/p>\n
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Societe Generale\u2019s Sam Cartwright notes that UK Headline CPI stayed at 2.8% year-on-year in May, undershooting both Bloomberg…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275433,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-643511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/643511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=643511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/643511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275433"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=643511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=643511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=643511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}