Hannah Al-Othman<\/p>\n
Thank you so much for all of your brilliant questions, I\u2019ve really enjoyed answering them, and some of them have given me plenty to mull over in the final hours of the campaign!<\/p>\n
My colleague Josh Halliday and I will be at the count tomorrow night, so please do follow our coverage for the latest updates from Makerfield.<\/p>\n
I hope that at least some of my predictions will prove to be correct! We should find out in the early hours hours of Friday morning…<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Where is the Restore candidate?<\/p>\n FiniteMonkey<\/a> asks: I have a question – is there any evidence that the Restore candidate actually exists?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: I haven\u2019t personally met her! But then I haven\u2019t been given any time with Andy Burnham during the campaign either, and I have met him many times before, so I know he definitely does exist.<\/p>\n I have noted that there appear to have been fewer public-facing events during this campaign, for example hustings. We\u2019ve also seen less from the party leaders; it stands to reason that Keir Starmer would remain absent, and I sure Burnham would probably prefer it that way, but we\u2019ve also seen a lot less of Nigel Farage during this campaign than we did in Gorton and Denton.<\/p>\n Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd, existing Photograph: Peter Powell\/AFP\/Getty ImagesShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.37 EDT<\/p>\n When do we get the results?<\/p>\n irreverentnurse<\/a> asks: When do we get the results?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: We\u2019re expecting a result around 4am – 5am, but we may have an indication earlier than that. With Gorton and Denton it was clear that the Greens had won a good couple of hours before the declaration.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>How much say does the Labour membership have in choosing the leader?<\/p>\n ADH1969<\/a> asks: How much does the Labour party membership have over who is elected leader of the party? In other words how is the voting split: what percentage is it MPs, unions and ordinary members?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: While there used to be voting blocks in Labour leadership elections, the voting system changed in 2015, and is now one-member-one-vote. This includes MPs, who only have one vote, so can be largely outweighed by the membership. Both Labour party members and members of affiliated unions are able to vote in the election, but need to opt in first \u2013 and each person can only vote once, even if they are a Labour member and also a trade union member. However, MPs do still have a significant role to play, as candidates need the support of 20% of MPs to launch a leadership challenge. (Or if a leader resigns they need the support of 20% of MPs, plus 5% of constituency parties, or 5% of affiliates, such as trade unions. This was increased from 10% of MPs in 2021, when the option to vote as a registered supporter was also scrapped.)<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s leadership elections have been one-member-one-vote since 2015 Photograph: Russell Hart\/AlamyShare<\/a>How close is it really?<\/p>\n IscoBusquet<\/a> asks: Q 1: Are Reform campaigning on local issues at all in Makerfield?<\/p>\n Q 2: Is it really as close as it looks? In previous byelections since 2024 tactical voting was seemingly completely underestimated by polling, especially Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton.<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: 1. I have definitely noticed Reform shift to more local issues throughout the campaign. The illegal waste dump<\/a> is a big issue in Makerfield, as are neglected high streets, and towards the end of the campaign, we\u2019ve heard a lot from Reform about issues like fly-tipping, illegal waste dumping, and holding businesses like takeaways accountable for litter.<\/p>\n 2. Election experts I\u2019ve spoken to have said that Labour should win it, and the mood in the Labour camp in these last few days has definitely seemed optimistic, while the Reform side from what I\u2019m hearing is more downbeat. However, nobody I\u2019ve spoken to is anticipating an easy win, and it may be very close.<\/p>\n I actually think we didn\u2019t see much tactical voting in Gorton and Denton \u2013 I live there and from speaking to people locally, I don\u2019t think either Labour or the Greens had successfully convinced people on any large scale that they were the tactical vote to beat Reform. I think the Greens won here simply because they were more popular. However, you\u2019re absolutely right that it was a factor in Caerphilly. <\/p>\n I think we\u2019re definitely seeing evidence in Makerfield of Green and Lib Dem voters lending their voters to Burnham, so I think it will play a big role in this election too. (And what the evidence suggests is that Restore voters are not as likely to do the same for Reform, which will also help Labour.) I think those tactical voters have already been factored into a lot of the Makerfield predictions though, which suggest that Burnham will win, but with Reform not too far behind.<\/p>\n Election experts are predicting a Labour win in Makerfield Photograph: Adam Vaughan\/EPAShare<\/a>Will turn out size affect the outcome?<\/p>\n RichienotsoRich<\/a> asks: What is your prediction in terms of turn out and what difference could large versus median vs small make to the outcome?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: I don\u2019t like making myself a hostage to fortune by predicting anything, but I think that turnout will be relatively high. Turnouts are often lower in byelections than general elections. Burnham ally Lucy Powell was elected in Manchester Central in 2012 on a turnout of just 18% \u2013 the lowest since World War Two. <\/p>\n In the Gorton and Denton byelection the turnout was I think 47-48%, which was roughly the same as at the general election. In Makerfield in 2024 turnout was a bit higher at 52.5%, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if turnout was similar tomorrow \u2013 maybe even higher, as this byelection has been so high profile.<\/p>\n If I had to say, I\u2019d suggest a higher turnout will benefit Burnham as I spoke to quite a few people who had said they hadn\u2019t voted last time, but would be voting for him on Thursday.<\/p>\n Turnout in the Makerfield byelection may be relatively high Photograph: Ian Forsyth\/Getty ImagesShare<\/a>Should Burham wait to make his leadership move?<\/p>\n Alexis2782<\/a> asks: Would it be a better tactic for Burnham to wait until the Mayoral Election to launch a leadership bid?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: Would it damage Burnham\u2019s leadership chances if he was in the middle of a leadership campaign with Reform winning his old job?<\/p>\n Whereas waiting would mean any loss to Reform would only have Starmer\u2019s fingerprints all over it.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a really interesting question, and you make some very good points. It is quite difficult to answer what his intentions may be because Team Burnham remain incredibly tight-lipped about their plans post-Thursday. It has been suggested that he may until Labour Party conference time, in the Autumn.<\/p>\n I can totally see the wisdom in it for him to wait a few weeks or months, and also logistically, he would be expected to be present during the mayoral campaign, and so it would be difficult for him to fight both at the same time.<\/p>\n However, as Wes Streeting has talked about launching a leadership bid as early as next week, the decision may be taken out of his hands\u2026<\/p>\n Andy Burnham delivering a speech in Wigan Photograph: Temilade Adelaja\/ReutersShare<\/a>What would a Burnham win in Makerfield mean for Manchester?<\/p>\n ndl4321<\/a> asks: If Andy Burnham wins and becomes an MP how quickly does an election have to be held for the new Mayor of Greater Manchester?<\/p>\n Following on from that, what is the likelihood that Labour<\/a> might not win that election?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: We\u2019re expecting it to happen pretty quickly, and there has already been a date floated, which off the top of my head I think was 30 July 30. So we\u2019re pretty much planning to go straight from one byelection into the next if Burnham wins tomorrow. If a mayor has policing powers (as opposed to mayors with separate police and crime commissioners), they are not allowed to also be an MP, so Burnham would have to resign pretty much straight away, triggering the byelection.<\/p>\n British politics is so unpredictable at the minute that I would never dare to even try to predict an election result! However, I think the accepted wisdom is that Reform would be Labour\u2019s biggest challenger. Reform are likely to do well in a lot of the outer boroughs like Tameside, Rochdale, and Wigan. However, my understanding is that Manchester city council has the biggest electorate by quite some way, and while there are parts of the borough that vote Reform, there are more progressive voters here.<\/p>\n Labour has reintroduced the supplementary vote system for mayor elections, which was scrapped by the Tories, so that will give Burnham an advantage. If no one candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, second preference votes will then be counted. I would expect that the Greens in particular would do well in a mayoral election, particularly in south Manchester, but I\u2019d imagine a lot of Green voters may be willing to second preference Labour to stop Reform.<\/p>\n I think Labour will need to choose their candidate carefully, as personality politics is so important these days. I know that the party is already war-gaming and taking the threat from Reform seriously. It will be an interesting contest\u2026<\/p>\n Andy Burnham speaking in Manchester earlier this year Photograph: James Speakman\/PAShare<\/a>Out for the Count<\/p>\n IscoBusquet<\/a> asks: Has anyone asked Count Binface his opinion?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: I must admit that in this election, I have not. (Although I have interviewed him previously when he stood against Rishi Sunak in Richmond at the last general election). I must try harder next time!<\/p>\n Bin there, done that Photograph: Toby Melville\/ReutersShare<\/a>Is Burnham soft left and what does that mean in 2026?<\/p>\n MistakeNot<\/a> asks: I\u2019ve heard it described that Burham represents the soft left of the Labour Party, what does that mean these days?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: The soft left has always been harder to define in Labour politics, and rather than referring to a specific faction, it can really mean anyone who is neither hard left (who were formerly known as Corbynites), or the more right-leaning \u201cBlairite\u201d or \u201cNew Labour\u201d wing of the party. Obviously these terms are linked to previous leaders and are now quite outdated, but broadly we could say \u201cdemocratic socialists\u201d for the hard left and \u201csocial democrats\u201d for the Labour right. The \u201csoft left\u201d tends to be used for anyone and everyone in the middle. <\/p>\n The situation is perhaps complicated by the fact that Keir Starmer was previously seen as soft left, but his policies in government have often been more right-leaning, for example on immigration, and cracking down on protest, which I think makes it even more hard to define these days.<\/p>\n However, with Burnham it is perhaps a little easier. He has been an advocate for electoral reform, which is an idea that has been historically popular with the soft left, and soft left ideas like bringing transport under public control are also aligned with Burnham \u2013 one of, or perhaps even his most \u2013 popular policies as Manchester mayor has been to set up the Bee Network, bringing public transport under central control and bringing down fares. <\/p>\n Burnham\u2019s \u201cManchesterism\u201d brand of politics is perhaps a really good example of \u201csoft left\u201d politics \u2013 devolving power away from Westminster. public ownership of essential services, and capping the price of basic necessities to deal with the cost of living; but also being friendly to business. All of this probably sits somewhere between free-market New Labour, and more radical Corbynism.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Could shy Reform voters skew the polls?<\/p>\n PHHemel<\/a> asks: Should we worry that \u2018shy Reformers\u2019 may skew poll results? In some previous elections the \u2018shy Tory\u2019 effect meant that the Tory vote was higher than expected.<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: Polling is by no means an exact science, and pollsters have got it wrong many times. It is of course a possibility, but I have seen Reform voters are generally quite happy to nail their colours to the mast, talk to me about why they\u2019re voting Reform etc., and they\u2019re probably even more happy to share their views with a pollster than with a journalist. So I wouldn\u2019t necessarily be expecting it in significant numbers \u2013 but I could be wrong!<\/p>\n A Reform campaign sign in Makerfield Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The GuardianShare<\/a>Why have the left lost the disadvanted?<\/p>\n StanEthel<\/a> asks: There is a correlation between left behind, disadvantaged voters and support for Reform and Restore. These people\u2019s lives will be worse under a rightwing regime<\/p>\n Why have the left lost these people?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: I think it is a mix of factors; part of it was complacency, as we saw in Scotland, where Labour lost to the SNP, and the North East, where they lost to the Tories in 2019. Makerfield is also a former mining community, so has something in common with those North East seats. I really don\u2019t think there\u2019s any such thing as a safe seat anymore, for any party, but I think Labour perhaps took those votes for granted for too long. Also, I have heard a lot (not just in this constituency, but others with similar demographics) \u201cwell we\u2019ve always had a Labour MP and nothing has got any better\u201d \u2013 so even if Labour aren\u2019t in government, people place a lot of stores in who they have actually personally voted for.<\/p>\n However, I also think it is a lot to do with the fact that people\u2019s lives have got worse; it is harder to see a GP, bills have gone up, social housing waiting lists have got longer. Parties like Reform and Restore have done a good job of pinning the blame for that on other people, (often immigrants), and I think people who are struggling to pay the bills and have seen their area decline may be looking for someone to blame for that.<\/p>\n I think if the left want to win back those voters they need to convince them that voting for a progressive party will make their lives better. We have seen Labour pass some important legislation that may work towards this; eg. on workers rights, and renters rights, but I think while so many people are struggling with the cost of living, and see public services as lacking, that message hasn\u2019t really filtered through yet.<\/p>\n Have the left lost disadvantaged voters to Reform and Restore? Photograph: Christopher Furlong\/Getty ImagesShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.27 EDT<\/p>\n Is there a controversy over some Jimmy Savile posters?<\/p>\n IscoBusquet<\/a> asks: Has there been much controversy locally over councillors being photographed next to a poster<\/a> saying \u201cI would Rather vote for Jimmy Savile than Labour\u201d?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: I have seen some controversy over it locally, it is in very poor taste and I think a lot of people are quite outraged by it \u2013 but that outrage seems to be mostly coming from people who are opposed to Reform anyway. I don\u2019t know whether it will cost them any votes.<\/p>\n I believe the councillor who posted it has faced some backlash, and may have removed her social media profiles.<\/p>\n Perhaps a sign of the age we are living in with so many AI-generated images floating around, I\u2019ve seen a lot of people asking \u201cIs this real?\u201d I believe some Reform politicians had said it was a fake, but later retracted that.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.25 EDT<\/p>\n Over for Burnham or over for Starmer?<\/p>\n VirgilHilts<\/a> asks: If Reform win is it over for Andy Burnham? And if Labour win is it over for Sir Keir Starmer?<\/p>\n double quotation markHannah: If Andy Burnham doesn\u2019t win tomorrow night, I think there will be a lot of soul searching for Labour, because effectively it will mean that no Labour politician is able to beat Reform in areas where Reform are strong. The Reform candidate was not particularly strong, and there were plenty of negative stories about his online posts in particular, so with a fairly weak Reform candidate, and a very popular Labour candidate, if Reform still win, that will surely be crisis point for Labour.<\/p>\n Wes Streeting is already talking about launching a leadership challenge as early as next week, and I think a Reform win would give him the confidence to do that, and also other MPs the incentive to support him, so I think Keir Starmer would be in serious trouble if Burnham loses.<\/p>\n As for Andy Burnham, that one is a bit harder to foresee. I\u2019d imagine he\u2019d slot back into being Manchester mayor, at least for now, but what his next move would be, and whether he\u2019d try again for a (safer) parliamentary seat, or whether he\u2019d choose to step away from politics altogether, I just don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n Both Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham face uncertain futures as a result of the Makerfield byelection Composite: James Manning\/PA WireShare<\/a>Would a Burnham loss affect his popularity in Manchester?<\/p>\n