On a wall inside Andy Burnham\u2019s buzzy campaign centre, the signatures of hundreds of MPs, peers and councillors show the scale of the operation to return him to parliament. \u201cMPs are like buses round here these days,\u201d says one Labour volunteer. \u201cYou don\u2019t see one for ages then hundreds turn up at once.\u201d<\/p>\n
The voters of this long-neglected corner of Greater Manchester<\/a> will on Thursday decide whether Labour\u2019s love-bombing has paid off in the most consequential UK byelection in decades.<\/p>\n Constituency polls have given the Greater Manchester mayor between a three- and 12-percentage point lead over Reform. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Barely 24 hours before voting begins in Makerfield, the polls suggest Burnham will triumph, and Labour<\/a> figures sound increasingly confident.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s really positive,\u201d beams the Labour MP Rachael Maskell as she climbs into a car piled with Burnham-branded leaflets on Tuesday afternoon. \u201cI\u2019ve had people take down Reform posters and come back to Andy because they can see it\u2019s so divisive. In the last minutes of reaching a decision [voters] are turning to Andy because he\u2019s bringing people together.\u201d<\/p>\n Maskell, who led a rebellion<\/a> against disability cuts last July, says Labour has \u201cfound its values and purpose again\u201d in Makerfield and urged Burnham to launch an immediate leadership challenge if elected.<\/p>\n Asked whether he could be prime minister by the Labour party conference in September, Maskell says: \u201cI\u2019m optimistic that can happen very quickly \u2026 This country is crying out for his leadership.\u201d<\/p>\n Constituency polls<\/a> have given the Greater Manchester mayor between a three- and 12-percentage point lead over Reform. While the \u201cBurnham bounce\u201d is real, the result may be decided by another party entirely: the rightwing Restore Britain.<\/p>\n Rupert Lowe\u2019s hardline party, which calls for the death penalty and mass deportations, is predicted to win about 7% of the vote in what would be an astonishing result for an outfit that launched only four months ago. It would also be enough to stand in the way of Reform.<\/p>\n Restore is predicted to win about 7% of the vote. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n \u201cIf Restore weren\u2019t around Reform would walk it,\u201d says Darren, the Reform-supporting owner of the Triangle snooker club, where Farage hosted a party event last week.<\/p>\n Darren, who declines to give his surname for fear of losing customers, says Labour has \u201chammered\u201d the ground war but the split among the rightwing vote is likely to prove decisive: \u201cRestore will take those votes that will push it Andy Burnham\u2019s way.\u201d<\/p>\n On the streets and on social media, the energy appears to be going in two directions: to Burnham and Restore. A Guardian analysis shows Restore has bought more Facebook and Instagram advertising on Makerfield than any other party \u2013 and more than double the number of Reform.<\/p>\n Graphic depicting the number of Facebook ad campaigns by party<\/a><\/p>\n Outside the Triangle club in Stubshaw Cross, Reform\u2019s open-top battlebus, plastered with posters of its candidate, Rob Kenyon, a plumber, sits empty.<\/p>\n Its driver, Trevor Jones, was elected as the Reform leader of Bolton council in May and takes the bright teal bus across England for party events. He is used to the odd insult but this campaign, he says, has been \u201cmore aggressive than I\u2019ve ever seen\u201d.<\/p>\n Trevor Jones, the Bolton council leader and Reform UK bus driver, outside the party\u2019s campaign headquarters in Ashton-in-Makerfield. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Restore Britain activists were filmed<\/a> last week blocking Reform\u2019s bus with a union flag-branded Land Rover and Jones says some had tried to plaster it with Restore posters: \u201cWe should be fighting the same cause not one another. I bet Burnham is laughing his head off.\u201d<\/p>\n Voters across this semi-rural stretch of former mining villages south of Wigan, where 95% of the population is white British, said the byelection had become increasingly toxic.<\/p>\n There were reports of Labour placards being torn down, neighbours falling out and divisive rhetoric on local Facebook groups, which a study found this week<\/a> have been swamped with pro-Reform misinformation.<\/p>\n Speaking beside a Reform placard outside her neat semi in Stubshaw Cross, Pam Flaherty, 70, says people are \u201cturning against each other\u201d. \u201cI had one man spit at my poster,\u201d she says. \u201cHe stood there effing and blinding and I\u2019ve known this man for years.\u201d<\/p>\n Pam Flaherty worries about \u2018letting every Tom, Dick and Harry in on the boats and taking over\u2019. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Flaherty, a retired nursery cook, and her husband, Ian, 69, were lifelong Labour voters but joined Reform over concerns about immigration. Pam is now a member of Restore Britain but will vote for Farage\u2019s party on Thursday.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople say I\u2019m racist but I\u2019m not. My knee surgeon was Pakistani, he\u2019s a lovely man; my dentist is Egyptian and my doctor is Indian \u2013 I love them,\u201d she says, adding that she worries about \u201cletting every Tom, Dick and Harry in on the boats and taking over\u201d.<\/p>\n