{"id":652278,"date":"2026-06-22T14:21:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T14:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/652278\/"},"modified":"2026-06-22T14:21:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T14:21:13","slug":"who-will-win-the-2026-tour-de-france-ranking-the-favorites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/652278\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Will Win the 2026 Tour de France: Ranking the Favorites"},"content":{"rendered":"

Updated June 22, 2026 04:20AM<\/p>\n

Who will win the Tour de France?<\/a><\/p>\n

We\u2019re finally at a point to lay our bets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Key altitude camps have been ticked off.<\/p>\n

Tune-up races are done.<\/p>\n

All that\u2019s left for Tadej Poga\u010dar<\/a> and the favorites to do before the grand d\u00e9part<\/a> on July 4 is a couple of sharpening workouts, a bit of recon, and taper.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s our yellow jersey form guide and power ranking, based on a magic formula of recent results, team strength, and editorial \u201csense.\u201d<\/p>\n

1. Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Emirates-XRG), 27
\n\"TadejTadej Poga\u010dar is chasing a record-equaling fifth yellow jersey, and it might be foolish to bet against him pulling it off. (Photo: LOIC VENANCE\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

11 single-day victories and 2 GC wins in 11 race days
\nOverall victory at Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie
\nVictories at Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge<\/p>\n

The golden rule of modern cycling? Never bet against Tadej Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n

The Slovenian just plowed through yet another near-perfect season and rates himself fitter than ever<\/a>. His grip on the WorldTour shows no signs of loosening.<\/p>\n

A record-equaling fifth Tour de France title is at his fingertips.<\/p>\n

OK, so there are some question marks for the Tour\u2019s two-time defending champion.<\/p>\n

Jonas Vingegaard looks better than ever, and Poga\u010dar hasn\u2019t truly been tested in a GC context this year. His opposition in Romandie and Switzerland were \u2013 no offense \u2013 hardly A-Tier.<\/p>\n

And who knows?<\/p>\n

Pogi may find himself distracted by the injury of his partner, Ur\u0161ka \u017digart. Or the ennui that zapped him in the back half of last year\u2019s race may resurface.<\/p>\n

But we\u2019re clutching at straws here.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t bet against Tadej Poga\u010dar, and don\u2019t do it at the 2026 Tour de France.<\/p>\n

2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), 29
\n\"JonasJonas Vingegaard completed the grand tour sweep at the Giro d\u2019Italia and is now chasing the Giro-Tour double. (Photo: Luca Bettini \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Overall victory at Paris-Nice, Volta a Catalunya, Giro d\u2019Italia
\n9 stage wins across the above 3 stage-races<\/p>\n

Jonas Vingegaard<\/a> might be back to his best. Maybe even back to his Tour de France-winning vintage of 2022 and 2023.<\/p>\n

He just won the Giro d\u2019Italia without really trying, and completed a season-long stage-racing unbeaten streak while he was at it.<\/p>\n

And for the first time in two years, the Dane powers toward the grand d\u00e9part without the hangover of recent injuries and training disruptions.<\/p>\n

It looks like Vingegaard could have cut his gap to Poga\u010dar in 2026.<\/p>\n

But, without having seen him square up to his arch-rival since last year\u2019s Tour de France, it\u2019s hard to believe the Dane has eliminated the deficit altogether.<\/p>\n

3. Isaac Del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), 22
\n\"IsaacIsaac del Toro is on a tear of GC and single-stage victories that his idol Poga\u010dar would be proud of. (Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Overall victories at UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico, Tour Auvergne-Rh\u00f4nes-Alpes
\n5 stage wins across the above 3 stage-races
\n3rd at Strade Bianche<\/p>\n

Isaac del Toro<\/a> deserves a lot more hype. The Mexican sensation was overshadowed this season by the phenomenal rise of Paul Seixas.<\/p>\n

But Del Toro proved this year he\u2019s the real deal. He won every stage-race he finished and blew everybody off his wheel at the Tour de France tune-up race, the Dauphin\u00e9.<\/p>\n

The only thing holding back Del Toro as he romps into his Tour de France debut?<\/p>\n

Tadej Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n

The superdomestique\u2019s fate<\/a> might be intertwined with that of his Merckxian leader.<\/p>\n

If Del Toro doesn\u2019t get stuck serving bottles to King Pog, it\u2019s hard to see anybody coming near him.<\/p>\n

The battle for fourth: Florian Lipowitz vs. Paul Seixas
\n\"ThePaul Seixas is one of the most exciting Tour de France debutants in years. (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images))<\/p>\n

Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 25<\/p>\n

Top-3 overall at Volta a Catalunya, Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie
\nOverall victory at Tour of Slovenia
\n2 stage wins across the above stage-races<\/p>\n

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA-CGM), 19<\/p>\n

Overall victory at Izulia Basque Country, 2nd at Volta ao Algarve
\n4 stage wins across the above stage-races
\nVictory at La Fl\u00e8che Wallonne, 2nd at Strade Bianche and Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge<\/p>\n

The chase for fourth will be a battle between Mr. Unspectacularly Consistent and the most exciting, unproven talent the Tour has seen in years: Florian Lipowitz<\/a> vs. Paul Seixas<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Lipowitz just doesn\u2019t miss, and he doesn\u2019t have any obvious weakness, either.<\/p>\n

After a slow start to the season at the Volta ao Algarve, he hit the podium of every stage-race he started. A dominant victory at the Tour of Slovenia put an exclamation point on it for the German star.<\/p>\n

But Lipowitz lacks the magic sparkle Seixas has so much of. He\u2019s never shown a hint of yellow jersey pedigree.<\/p>\n

By contrast, the sky might be the limit for Seixas, a French phenom who\u2019s inspired hope in an entire nation.<\/p>\n

He showed in skirmishes with Poga\u010dar at Strade Bianche and Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge he\u2019s afraid of nobody. And he\u2019s definitely got the physiology to pull off such youthful swagger.<\/p>\n

Seixas has all the tools to win the Tour de France.<\/p>\n

But it won\u2019t be this year.<\/p>\n

So much can go wrong for him as he shoulders the weight of a nation in not only his first Tour de France, but his first-ever grand tour.<\/p>\n

That said, if Seixas can deflect the home hype and race fault-free this summer, he could cause trouble for even his most experienced rivals.<\/p>\n

Leading the race for sixth: Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 26
\n\"EvenepoelRemco Evenepoel can crush anybody in a one-day race. Can he translate that to the Tour de France? (Photo: Luc Claessen\/Getty Images))<\/p>\n

Victory and 2 stage wins at the Volta a Valenciana
\nVictory at Amstel Gold Race
\n3rd at Tour of Flanders, Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge<\/p>\n

Time to address the elephant in the ranking.<\/p>\n

Where\u2019s Remco?<\/p>\n

On his day, Remco Evenepoel<\/a> is one of the best in the world. He reasserted that pedigree this year at the Amstel Gold Race.<\/p>\n

But the Olympic champion\u2019s GC resume for 2026 says it all.<\/p>\n

Victory at Valenciana, a disappointing 10th in the heat and steeps of the UAE Tour, and a typically dramatic 5th at the Volta a Catalunya.<\/p>\n

Evenepoel is a stage-racing wildcard that contrasts the steady hand of his teammate Lipowitz.<\/p>\n

If Evenepoel fixed his stage-racing faults in his controversial two-month training camp<\/a>, he could swing for the podium at this Tour de France.<\/p>\n

If not? He might finish 6th, 60th, or not even see the finish in Paris.<\/p>\n

Chasing a Tour de France top-10
\n\"JorgensonJorgenson finished top-10 of the last two Tours de France. He\u2019s got the form to do it again. (Photo: Anne-Christine POUJOULAT \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Lastly, shout-out to the dark horses, outsiders, and superdomestiques who will be in the GC mix.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the chasing pack, in approximate order of Tour de France potential:<\/p>\n

Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)
\nTobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)
\nMatteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)
\nLenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious)
\nCian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar)
\nTom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5)
\nRichard Carapaz (EF Education EasyPost
\nK\u00e9vin Vauquelin (Netcompany Ineos)
\nSepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike)
\nOscar Onley (Netcompany Ineos)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Updated June 22, 2026 04:20AM Who will win the Tour de France? We\u2019re finally at a point to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":652279,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[4985,45284,101,95483,114394,76552,64887,114507,45288,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-652278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-cycling","tag-cycling","tag-parent_category-road","tag-sports","tag-tag-analysis","tag-tag-florian-lipowitz","tag-tag-isaac-del-toro","tag-tag-jonas-vingegaard","tag-tag-matteo-jorgenson","tag-type-article","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=652278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652278\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/652279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=652278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=652278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=652278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}