Ten years ago today, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.<\/p>\n
The helter-skelter in Westminster, where the Houses of Parliament are located, has been unceasing ever since. Just yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he will resign. His successor \u2013 likely Andy Burnham \u2013 will be the seventh PM in the last decade. For context: there were only five different leaders in the 37 years prior to the Brexit vote, dating back to the start of Margaret Thatcher\u2019s premiership.<\/p>\n
Brexit has directly contributed to the upheaval. Theresa May\u2019s tenure was blighted by it, as she was unable to force through a vote that would formally take the UK out of the trade bloc before she exited office in 2019. Ever since the UK left in 2020, the economy has been stagnant<\/a>. What\u2019s more, net migration has increased<\/a> over the last few years as the UK struggles to put a cap on non-EU movement \u2013 Brexiteers had argued that it would have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n As such, Burnham \u2013 assuming he enters office \u2013 may reverse some aspects of the UK\u2019s exit from the EU.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019ll be interesting, in particular, whether he signals a willingness to rejoin the single market or the customs union, which will only be for after 2029,\u201d said Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group\u2019s managing director for Europe. Rahman believes that Burnham could \u201cgo further\u201d than Starmer in terms of building links to the Union.<\/p>\n But Brexit is not the sole culprit of the UK\u2019s problems. The country has faced several crises since the vote: the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine \u2013 which sent energy prices soaring \u2013 and US President Donald Trump\u2019s return to office, which has generated new uncertainty for Europe\u2019s economic outlook and its defense. <\/p>\n So if Burnham succeeds Starmer, can he do any better? GZERO sat down with Rahman, an expert on UK politics, to get some insights on how the former Manchester mayor can learn from the outgoing PM\u2019s mistakes. This interview is edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n GZERO: Why did Starmer only last two years?<\/p>\n Rahman: Starmer\u2019s inheritance was an incredibly challenging one. Everybody knew that the economic picture was a real challenge. Public services are on their knees, with no fiscal space. That general picture was compounded by a couple of things. First, the government didn\u2019t really have a plan. Second, they made lots of mistakes. To the extent the government then delivered a plan, Starmer was way too cautious in light of the majority that he was sitting on. If you put that in the context of the picture he inherited, that explains the reason why it\u2019s all fallen apart so quickly.<\/p>\n GZERO: Is Burnham going to be the next Prime Minister?<\/p>\n MR: I\u2019d say so, 99.9%. There\u2019s a possibility there\u2019s a leadership contest. Labour MP Darren Jones is being pushed by many to run as a potential contestant in the race to force Burnham to articulate a plan for government and have his ideas subject to greater scrutiny. So, there may still be a contest. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s where this is going, but it\u2019s possible. Even if there is a contest, I suspect Burnham will win. It will just mean he’s in power in September, not mid-July.<\/p>\n GZERO: Which policies do you think Burnham will try to implement?<\/p>\n MR: The key areas of difference from Starmer will be a much greater focus on giving back power to the local level, given Burnham\u2019s belief that local government is best equipped and most accountable at addressing the challenges that the country’s regions are confronting. Also, electoral reform. I think they will do things on the domestic agenda, potentially be even more ambitious than investors and general commentators expect, potentially on the welfare bill. I think they\u2019ll do more on social care, more on social housing, and he may even do more on infrastructure, for example, reinvigorating the high-speed rail network that Rishi Sunak killed when he was prime minister.<\/p>\n Where I think he will struggle is on fiscal policy. Where is he going to generate the cash to spend on some of these priorities, given the straitjackets of the fiscal rules and the Labour manifesto? The best Burnham can probably hope for is a virtuous circle in which he convinces investors of the UK\u2019s growth prospects on the basis of a more compelling buy-side reform agenda. If there is a belief that growth will be stronger under a Burnham premiership, which may improve the outlook for public finances, it may create more fiscal space against these rules. That in turn enables him to spend more on some of these other political priorities he\u2019s talking about.<\/p>\n GZERO: What can Burnham do to survive longer than two years?<\/p>\n MR: He\u2019s got to have a narrative and political direction, and an ability to communicate with his party and with voters, so that he can take both of those constituencies, as well as investors, with him on this journey. That was obviously something Starmer was spectacularly unequipped to do. What is the goal of the government? What is its defining mission? Boris Johnson didn\u2019t deliver much, but we knew what he stood for: leveling up and getting Brexit done. We knew what Tony Blair stood for: third-way politics. We don\u2019t know what \u201cStarmerism\u201d really was, so Burnham\u2019s challenge is going to be defining and articulating his goals to the country, and making sure all the key and relevant constituencies stay with him on this journey.<\/p>\n He will be better at that than Starmer because he is a better retail politician. I think he is better at engaging and communicating with the electorate in a way most politicians aren\u2019t. You saw that reflected in the Makerfield result, where he won with a very large margin against Reform UK.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ten years ago today, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. 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