Rate hikes by year-end<\/p>\n
RBNZ: 55 bps (62% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)Fed: 31 bps (30% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 27 bps (69% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 20 bps (86% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoJ: 19 bps (97% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 18 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 8 bps (87% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 5 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting)Last week’s market pricing here<\/a><\/p>\n If you check last week’s pricing, you can notice that we got a dovish repricing across the board. The likely culprit is the quick selloff in oil prices which have already reached pre-war levels. The market is expecting inflation to ease going forward which would require less or no hikes at all. <\/p>\n There’s another scenario though where the negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock now that the war ended and oil prices dropped significantly. That could boost economic activity further and keep inflation higher for longer, eventually requiring rate hikes anyway.<\/p>\n The data will have the final say…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 55 bps (62% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)Fed: 31 bps…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":659328,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-659327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=659327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659327\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/659328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=659327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=659327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=659327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}