{"id":669543,"date":"2026-07-02T09:43:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/669543\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T09:43:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:43:09","slug":"uk-us-drug-deal-could-divert-45bn-from-nhs-care-analysis-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/669543\/","title":{"rendered":"UK-US drug deal could divert \u00a345bn from NHS care, analysis warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

The UK-US trade deal<\/a> could lead to \u00a345 billion of NHS funding having to be diverted from care over the next decade to pay more for new medicines, a new analysis has suggested.<\/p>\n

The BMJ analysis, published today, said that reduced NHS spending on other health interventions could increase excess preventable deaths by nearly 230,000 by 2036.<\/p>\n

This is more than the estimated 137,000 preventable deaths attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and June 2022, the authors said.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0trade deal\u00a0agreed with the US secured zero tariffs on UK pharmaceutical and medical device exports to the US for three years but also committed the NHS to higher spending on new branded medicines.<\/p>\n

The government described it as a \u2018landmark\u2019 deal that would \u2018safeguard medicines access and drive vital investment for UK patients and businesses\u2019.<\/p>\n

Experts have said it was a \u2018good piece of damage limitation\u2019<\/a> but still means spending more on medicines, while campaigners have threatened legal action<\/a> over measures to allow ministers to increase the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) cost effectiveness threshold.<\/p>\n

The BMJ analysis estimate that the cumulative additional cost to the NHS in England could reach \u00a344.7 billion by the end of 2036, with annual costs rising from \u00a31.3 billion in 2028 to \u00a38.8 billion in 2036, unless extra funding is made available to cover the additional costs.<\/p>\n

The authors argue that if the additional spending on branded medicines is met from existing NHS budgets, reduced investment in other healthcare services could result in an estimated 229,000 excess preventable deaths by 2036.<\/p>\n

Moreover, including the indirect impact on publicly-funded adult social care would increase this figure to 291,000.<\/p>\n

The changes introduced under the deal include an increase in the NICE cost-effectiveness threshold for new medicines from \u00a320,000-\u00a330,000 to \u00a325,000-\u00a335,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY).<\/p>\n

The agreement also changes the way health benefits are assessed by NICE and reduces the voluntary scheme for branded medicines pricing, access and growth (VPAG) rebate rate from 23% to 14.5%.<\/p>\n

The authors note that the government has also committed to increasing NHS spending on new branded medicines from 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) to at least 0.6% by 2036.<\/p>\n

According to the analysis, NICE already recommends more than 90% of medicines it evaluates, with the higher cost-effectiveness threshold expected to result in only two to five additional medicines being approved each year.<\/p>\n

According to the authors, this suggests the agreement is more likely to increase the prices paid for medicines already entering the NHS than substantially improve patient access.<\/p>\n

They also question the overall economic benefit of the agreement, noting that the UK remains a net importer of medicines and that the projected costs are expected to exceed the annual value of UK pharmaceutical exports to the US before 2031.<\/p>\n

The authors write: \u2018The government’s willingness to accommodate industry pressure while the NHS absorbs the resulting costs raises important questions about transparency and accountability.\u2019<\/p>\n

The authors note that the Department of Health and Social Care has undertaken an impact assessment on the wider costs of the agreement but has not made it public, and called on the government to publish the full details of the deal and the assessment to allow parliamentary scrutiny.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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