{"id":672995,"date":"2026-07-04T06:47:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T06:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/672995\/"},"modified":"2026-07-04T06:47:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T06:47:11","slug":"uk-and-ireland-leaders-fear-for-unions-future-under-farage-led-government-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/672995\/","title":{"rendered":"UK and Ireland leaders fear for union\u2019s future under Farage-led government | Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

The rise of Nigel Farage has prompted political leaders across Ireland, Northern Ireland<\/a>, Scotland and Wales to game the unthinkable: the break-up of the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

Unionists who wish to save the union and nationalists who wish to end it are bracing for constitutional turmoil if Reform UK<\/a> emerges triumphant \u2013 with Farage as prime minister or official leader of the opposition \u2013 after the next election.<\/p>\n

Representatives from each side believe a Farage-led government could trigger a hasty referendum on Irish unification and usher in Trump-style anti-immigration crackdowns that alienate the Celtic nations. The possibility of a strong Reform opposition or coalition spooks the nations just as much.<\/p>\n

It is conceivable that \u201cin just a handful of years\u2019 time, people on the island of Ireland will be looking across the Irish Sea to a country where ICE-like snatch squads are arresting people off the streets\u201d said Mark Drakeford<\/a>, the former first minister of Wales, referring to the US Immigration \u2060and Customs Enforcement agency.<\/p>\n

Drakeford, who has repeatedly said he would fight to retain the union, worries that politics in Britain has irrevocably changed and fears there \u201cthere may not be time\u201d for a considered debate about the UK\u2019s future if Farage reaches Downing Street or Reform significantly boosts its number of parliamentary seats from the eight it now holds.<\/p>\n

Mark Drakeford, speaking at a conference in Belfast, said English nationalism risked pushing out Scotland and Northern Ireland, leaving Wales a \u2018progressive pimple\u2019 in a rump UK. Photograph: Liam McBurney\/PA<\/p>\n

\u201cThe United Kingdom is a voluntary association of four nations, and in any voluntary association there must be choices that people can make to stay in and choices that people can make to leave.\u201d<\/p>\n

The former Welsh Labour leader made the warnings last week at a conference in Belfast organised by the Social Democratic and Labour party (SDLP), during which figures from across the UK and Ireland<\/a> voiced concern about the risk of being \u201cbounced\u201d into a vote on Irish unification.<\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s justice minister, Jim O\u2019Callaghan, said Dublin should begin preparing for unification rather than wait for English nationalism to set the timetable. \u201cThe future may not go down the predictable pathway of discussions and harmony,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Irish leaders think the UK\u2019s annual subvention for Northern Ireland, estimated to range between \u00a36bn and \u00a320bn, could become a rallying cry for Farage, similar to the Brexit-era claim that the EU cost Britain \u00a3350m every week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWait till he sees our bill,\u201d said Claire Hanna, the SDLP leader. \u201cI think if English nationalists really dive deep into the resources that Northern Ireland requires, that could become a political football, a political problem.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cBrexit was a lesson in how not to do constitutional change, and since then British politics had changed in a structural way,\u201d said Hanna. \u201cWe can no longer say the Nigel Farage<\/a> phenomenon is a flash in the pan, unfortunately. It\u2019s a feature now of UK politics. So it is prudent for us to think about our own constitutional future and not be passengers in wherever politics wishes to take us.\u201d<\/p>\n

SDLP leader Claire Hanna: \u2018We can no longer say the Nigel Farage phenomenon is a flash in the pan.\u2019 Photograph: Liam McBurney\/PA<\/p>\n

Sinn F\u00e9in has campaigned for a unification referendum \u2013 which a British government can call at any time \u2013 but wants consultation and preparation. \u201cWe can\u2019t afford to take chances on what might come next from London,\u201d said Conor Murphy, a former Stormont Sinn F\u00e9in finance minister at Stormont who is now an Irish senator.<\/p>\n

Murphy estimates the subvention for Northern Ireland is lower than \u00a36bn but said Farage could weaponise the \u00a320bn estimate. \u201cHe could say: \u2018We\u2019re going to save that by letting the Irish go and good luck to you and goodbye.\u2019 He could do that. I\u2019m not suggesting that he will but it\u2019s kind of the nature of their policies. It\u2019s Trump-like. It\u2019s unpredictable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sinn F\u00e9in was urging Dublin to engage with UK counterparts \u2013 \u201cwhile there might be someone sensible in Whitehall\u201d \u2013 to clarify the terms and conditions of a referendum, said Murphy. \u201cEstablish the groundwork, establish the ground rules and make sure that they at least are insulated from whatever chaos might arise.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fine Gael, part of Ireland\u2019s ruling coalition, recently said it would publish a blueprint for a unified Ireland at the party\u2019s annual conference in November.<\/p>\n

Leo Varadkar, a former taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, said he did not think a Farage-led government was likely but if it did come to pass, he believes Ireland could be \u201cbounced\u201d into a border poll. \u201cAn accelerator could be a UK government led by Reform that doubles down on Brexit<\/a>, that takes this view that Brexit failed because it wasn\u2019t done properly and looks for a harder separation from the EU and reopens these questions around the ECHR [European convention on human rights].\u201d<\/p>\n

Farage has said he wishes to leave the ECHR \u2013 and renegotiate the Good Friday agreement<\/a> the convention underpins \u2013 in an attempt to stop small boat crossings to England.<\/p>\n

In their 15th survey on the UK and the EU in Northern Ireland, the Queen\u2019s University Belfast professors Katy Hayward and David Phinnemore found support for the removal of ECHR much higher in Northern Ireland (36%) than the wider UK (29%).<\/p>\n

skip past newsletter promotion<\/a>Free newsletter | Every weekday<\/p>\n

Sign up to First Edition<\/p>\n

Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what\u2019s happening and why it matters<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Elements of loyalism in Belfast found common cause with the English far right during race riots in Belfast last month. Photograph: Isabel Infantes\/Reuters<\/p>\n

Indicating it is a new frontier for Brexiters, that support rises to 77% among Democratic Unionist party (DUP) voters and 93% with Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), with whom Farage had an electoral pact.<\/p>\n

In a separate context, elements of loyalism found common cause with the English far right during race riots in Belfast<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n

Jon Burrows, the leader of Northern Ireland\u2019s Ulster Unionist party (UUP), expressed concern that Farage\u2019s brand of English nationalism \u201cmight galvanise\u201d nationalism in Northern Ireland, Scotland<\/a> and Wales. \u201cIt could create more fertile ground for those who want to tear apart the United Kingdom.\u201d<\/p>\n

Unionists must promote the economic and national security advantages of the UK, he said. \u201cI\u2019m increasingly trying to get our message out about what Northern Ireland brings to the union.\u201d<\/p>\n

Control of seas and underwater cables were vital to the UK\u2019s national security, he said. \u201cI think behind the scenes the security services would be concerned about Northern Ireland leaving the UK. The island of Ireland would be a national security vulnerability.\u201d Northern Ireland has 3% of the UK\u2019s population but produces 10% of its food, said the UUP leader. \u201cThere\u2019s so much that Northern Ireland is good at \u2013 we should be making that argument.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s justice minister, Jim O\u2019Callaghan: \u2018The future may not go down the predictable pathway of discussions and harmony.\u2019 Photograph: Liam McBurney\/PA<\/p>\n

Nationalists and unionists have contested Northern Ireland\u2019s constitutional status since its foundation, but the question mark over other countries in the UK indicates this as a different moment in time.<\/p>\n

Stephen Gethin, a Scottish National party MSP, told the conference that, while living in England, he was struck by the lack of engagement in the UK\u2019s constitutional future. \u201cHow do we bring England and English people into this conversation? Because they\u2019re an important part of our shared islands.\u201d<\/p>\n

Drakeford, who served as first minister in Cardiff until 2024, expressed hope the UK would endure and strengthen but said English nationalism risked pushing out Scotland and Northern Ireland, leaving Wales<\/a> a \u201cprogressive pimple\u201d in a rump UK.<\/p>\n

Under that scenario, Wales could hope to associate with Ireland and Scotland in a new Celtic union modelled on the Nordic Council, he said. Even those who favoured the union should consider the possibility of break-up, he said. \u201cWe have to think ahead and prepare.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reform may not win over the majority of voters in the next general election in the UK \u2013 but it does not need to, said Drakeford. \u201cThe perversity of the first-past-the-post election system means that you can get a government, as we have now, with a big majority on 34% of the vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

In that scenario, he said, Wales might find the \u201cUnited Kingdom has changed so radically that its component parts\u201d may find \u201cthey will be better off elsewhere\u201d. \u201cFrom a Welsh point of view, this could lead to the worst of all possible outcomes \u2013 not one in which the people of Wales choose to leave the United Kingdom, but in which the United Kingdom has left Wales.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The rise of Nigel Farage has prompted political leaders across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to game…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":672996,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-672995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=672995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/672996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=672995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=672995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=672995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}