{"id":687973,"date":"2026-07-12T17:45:29","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T17:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/687973\/"},"modified":"2026-07-12T17:45:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T17:45:29","slug":"canadian-dollar-jobs-and-boc-caution-shape-outlook-ing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/687973\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Dollar: Jobs and BoC caution shape outlook \u2013 ING"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ING\u2019s Francesco Pesole highlights that Canada\u2019s June jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown in hiring and a pickup in wage growth. He argues the bar for a hawkish shift by the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains high, with benign inflation and USMCA-related risks limiting hike prospects. ING sees CAD supported near term but does not expect <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/currencies\/usdcad\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">USD\/CAD<\/a> below 1.40 in coming months.<\/p>\n<p>Data and policy temper Loonie upside<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Canada releases jobs data for June today. Expectations are for a marked slowdown in hiring to 10k after May\u2019s big 88k, with unemployment staying at 6.6%. The focus will be on permanent employees\u2019 hourly wages, which are expected to increase from 3.2% to 3.6%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We think the bar for a material hawkish turn by the Bank of Canada is high, and we don\u2019t expect surprises at next week\u2019s meeting. Unless oil rallies back to April-May levels, the inflation outlook remains too benign to hike, especially considering downside risks for jobs and activity related to USMCA uncertainty.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;For now, some revamped BoC hawkish bets and some support for oil prices are helping CAD, which is outpacing USD <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/economic-calendar\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">this week<\/a>. We still think USMCA-related risk premium can be added throughout 3Q and don\u2019t expect a return below 1.40 [USD\/CAD] in the next couple of months.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/info\/how-fxstreet-uses-ai?utm_medium=internal&amp;utm_source=ai-disclaimer\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Know more.<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ING\u2019s Francesco Pesole highlights that Canada\u2019s June jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown in hiring&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":687974,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-687973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/687973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=687973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/687973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/687974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=687973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=687973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=687973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}