By Indradip Ghosh <\/p>\n
BENGALURU, July 16 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will hold interest rates on July 23 but will hike for the second time this year in September as a renewed energy price surge raises the risk of more intense inflation pressures, according to a growing \u200cmajority of economists polled by Reuters. <\/p>\n
A 20% jump in oil prices following a re-escalation of war in the Middle East has prompted markets to price \u200cin two more rate hikes this year, compared to one until the latest ceasefire arrangement between the U.S. and Iran ended. <\/p>\n
The ECB has already raised rates once this year, unlike many of its peers \u200bincluding the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. <\/p>\n
While preliminary official data showed euro zone inflation eased to 2.8% in June, that is still well above the ECB’s 2.0% target, keeping alive the case for higher rates. But weak growth and limited evidence of second-round effects argue for caution. <\/p>\n
The bank faces a delicate balance as seen over the past decade or so. In 2011, it raised rates after energy prices spikes, which many consider a policy mistake. But a delayed response to supply-driven inflation after Russia’s \u200cinvasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered an aggressive tightening cycle. <\/p>\n
All \u206074 economists in the July 13-16 Reuters poll expected the ECB to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week, in line with market pricing. <\/p>\n
A 70% majority of respondents, 52 of 74, expected one more rate hike this year, probably in September, up \u2060from around 60% in last month’s poll. <\/p>\n
“The ECB probably would have needed to hike anyway even if we hadn’t had all of this extra noise around the Strait of Hormuz over the past week or so,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. <\/p>\n
“Gas prices are significantly higher and electricity power prices are higher as well. The ECB \u200bis \u200bgoing to have to take account of this when it next updates its forecast in September. \u200bBut for now it will judge there’s no urgency for \u200cit to raise rates just yet again.” <\/p>\n
Nearly 30% of economists still see rates unchanged for the rest of the year while only three expect two more hikes. <\/p>\n
Policymakers have struck a cautious tone on inflation risks, particularly second-round effects, but have called for vigilance. <\/p>\n
“The balance in the Governing Council today is slightly more on the side of the hawkish people even though everybody knows pretty well that because of the growth momentum we have today in the euro area they have to be very cautious with a policy rate hike,” said Alain Durre, head of Europe macro research at Natixis. <\/p>\n
However, economists lowered their 2026 inflation forecasts – largely before the latest Middle East flare-up – by \u200caround 40 basis points on average, marking the first downward revision in five months, according to \u200bpoll medians. <\/p>\n
Still, inflation was not expected to return to the ECB’s 2% target until the second \u200bquarter of 2027 with core price pressures forecast to rise. <\/p>\n
“It’s very difficult \u200bto be confident about anything right now. But it’s very clear to me the higher energy inflation goes … the bigger the risk \u200cof second-round effects on wages and subsequently prices as firms raise \u200btheir prices to pay a higher wage bill,” \u200bsaid Simon Wells, chief European economist at HSBC. <\/p>\n
“So yes, if we go into the September meeting with oil at $90 and still highly uncertain about where things are heading with possible upside risks to that, it may well be prudent for the ECB to hike again.” <\/p>\n
The euro zone economy contracted 0.2% \u200bin the first quarter but was expected to have grown \u200c0.2% last quarter and expand at a similar pace in this one and the next, the poll showed, putting 2026 growth at 0.5%. That \u200bmarked a fourth straight downgrade to forecasts. <\/p>\n
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) <\/p>\n
(Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Aman Kumar Soni, Jaiganesh \u200bMahesh and Rhea Abraham Rose; Editing by Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley and Susan Fenton) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Indradip Ghosh BENGALURU, July 16 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will hold interest rates on July…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":697662,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,6266,42084,814,581,12675,122797,53349,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-697661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-european-central-bank","tag-inflation-pressures","tag-interest-rates","tag-oil-prices","tag-poll","tag-price-surge","tag-reuters-poll","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/697661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=697661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/697661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/697662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=697661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=697661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=697661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}