The stupidest game in politics is predicting a new cabinet, because it is literally one person\u2019s call – Burnham\u2019s tomorrow – and weirdly he hasn\u2019t shared his almost-decisions with me.<\/p>\n
Also, even if – when he is PM tomorrow – Burnham thinks he knows precisely who he wants in which job, he\u2019ll be aware that the picks of his predecessors had an annoying habit of saying \u201cno thank you\u201d. Best laid plans, and all that.<\/p>\n
In this instance, several Labour MPs who 100% will be in the cabinet have told me – and I believe them – that even now, just hours before the cabinet will be announced, they have no clue what Burnham will offer them.<\/p>\n
And to be clear, I am not talking about obscure friends of the northern king. I am talking about household names.<\/p>\n
But with all those caveats, my working assumption is the current home secretary Shabana Mahmood will be the new chancellor. <\/p>\n
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to become the new chancellor. Credit: PA<\/p>\n
If such weren\u2019t the case, given all the prior briefing, we\u2019d know through nods and winks – because Burnham is presumably savvy enough not to want to destabilise the markets after all his colleagues\u2019 conditioning for Mahmood in recent days.<\/p>\n
If it is Mahmood, it is a racing certainty that the eminent economists Jim O\u2019Neill and\/or Andy Haldane will have big advisory roles.<\/p>\n
This could be some kind of economic growth council spanning Downing Street and the Treasury \u2013 to compensate for Mahmood\u2019s lack of Treasury experience and economic expertise.<\/p>\n
As for foreign secretary, those close to Burnham think it will be Ed Miliband, and that Yvette Cooper – current incumbent – would return to being home secretary.<\/p>\n
It would be bizarre if Labour\u2019s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, didn\u2019t become deputy prime minister, and if Louise Haigh – so important to his elevation from Manchester mayor to PM – didn\u2019t become his chief enforcer as chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. <\/p>\n
Finally, there is still loads of chatter that Ed Miliband\u2019s brother David Miliband will return to government from his self-imposed New York exile in some or other senior capacity.<\/p>\n
But if he\u2019s not reprising his erstwhile role as foreign secretary, God knows what he will do.<\/p>\n
Cards on table. This could all be nonsense. But perhaps it is useful nonsense, because it is an insight into what senior members of Burnham\u2019s soon-to-be-government think is likely.<\/p>\n
And if they are wrong, that says something important about the tightness (lack of leakiness) of his circle of trust.<\/p>\n