{"id":704835,"date":"2026-07-22T07:31:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T07:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/704835\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T07:31:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T07:31:11","slug":"uk-inflation-falls-by-more-than-expected-to-2-6-in-lift-for-andy-burnham-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/704835\/","title":{"rendered":"UK inflation falls by more than expected to 2.6% in lift for Andy Burnham | Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">UK inflation dropped by more than expected in June to 2.6%, in a boost for Andy Burnham\u2019s plans to reduce the cost of living.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">The new prime minister has pledged to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2026\/jul\/21\/defence-uplift-national-care-service-andy-burnham-policies-funding\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">bring down the cost of living<\/a> to give households more disposable income and improve the outlook for the economy, announcing a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/money\/2026\/jul\/21\/what-will-andy-burnhams-vat-cut-on-energy-bills-mean-for-you\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">winter VAT holiday on electricity bills<\/a> and lowering the national cap on bus fares.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Last month\u2019s consumer prices index reading outdid economists\u2019 forecasts of a slide <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/may\/20\/uk-inflation-slows-energy-price-cap-softens-impact-of-rising-fuel-costs\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">from 2.8% in May<\/a> to 2.7%, amid a fall in the prices of fuel, particularly diesel, helped by the unstable truce in the Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/office-for-national-statistics\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Office for National Statistics<\/a> said clothing also dropped in price month on month along with the cost of transport and food, offsetting modest price increases in most other goods and services.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Grant Fitzner, the ONS chief economist, said: \u201cFood prices fell this month, driven by products including chocolate, margarine and beef. Clothing prices also fell with the start of summer sales, with bigger discounts than last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cThe cost of raw materials dipped for the first time since January, mainly due to the lower price of crude oil, while the increase in the costs of goods leaving factories slowed again.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">The new chancellor, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/john-healey\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">John Healey<\/a>, said the drop in prices growth was \u201cnews families want to hear\u201d but warned \u201cthere is much more to do to give people the breathing space they need\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">He added: \u201cThat is why yesterday we cut VAT on electricity bills and today we\u2019re announcing a \u00a32 cap on bus fares from January. We have chosen to focus on the cost of living in our first week, signalling that concern for working people will be at the heart of everything we do.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">The shadow chancellor, Sir Mel Stride, blamed the government for the fact inflation remained above the Bank of England\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cLabour\u2019s tax hikes and reckless borrowing stoked inflation, and Andy Burnham has already made billions of pounds of spending commitments without any plan to pay for them,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Joe Nellis, the economic adviser at the accountancy firm MHA, said the fall in inflation to 2.6% marked \u201ca welcome piece of good news for the incoming prime minister and his chancellor as they look to set out their policy agenda\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Nellis, an emeritus professor at Cranfield University, added: \u201cThe escalation of tensions in the Middle East in February led to fears of inflation spiralling out of control, as supply chains were disrupted and oil prices surged.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cHowever, while inflation has remained consistently above the Bank of England\u2019s 2% target, it remains far below expected levels \u2013 in its world economic outlook published in April, the IMF predicted inflation to head towards 4% by the end of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"#EmailSignup-skip-link-13\" class=\"dcr-76akua\">skip past newsletter promotion<\/a>Free newsletter | Every weekday<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-vf9hps\">Sign up to Business Today<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1r7my33\">Get set for the working day \u2013 we&#8217;ll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/500.jpg\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"dcr-xiq31o\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"EmailSignup-skip-link-13\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"after newsletter promotion\" role=\"note\" class=\"dcr-76akua\">after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Concerns that the Bank could increase interest rates later this month are likely to ease. Several members of the central bank\u2019s monetary policy committee have said they are worried about inflation running persistently above target unless they push up interest rates from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/jun\/18\/interest-rates-bank-of-england-hold-keep-iran\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">their current 3.75%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">The recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/jul\/21\/houthis-threaten-attack-tankers-saudi-arabian-ports-red-sea-shipping\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">escalation of hostilities in the Middle East <\/a>will also pose a problem for Burnham and the central bank after the conflict pushed the price of Brent crude back up above $90 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">The National Institute of Economic and Social Research expects inflation figures in the second half of the year to worsen, reflecting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/money\/2026\/may\/27\/energy-price-cap-great-britain-rise-july-gas-electricity-iran-war\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a 13% rise in the energy price cap<\/a> from the start of July and the deteriorating situation around Iran.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cNext month\u2019s data will uncover the impact of the long-awaited increase in Ofgem\u2019s energy price cap \u2026 we anticipate the October cap will remain elevated as we enter cooler months,\u201d said Charlotte O\u2019Leary, an associate economist at Niesr.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cA cut in household electricity VAT may alleviate some upward pressure later in the year, but its impact is likely to be limited, particularly as energy prices continue to feed into production.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cOverall, we forecast inflation to begin an upward trajectory from July through the first quarter of next year. With nominal pay growth continuing to cool, we expect limited spillover from higher inflation into wages, giving the Bank of England room to hold rates once again.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UK inflation dropped by more than expected in June to 2.6%, in a boost for Andy Burnham\u2019s plans&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":704836,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[84,59,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-704835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-gb","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=704835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/704836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=704835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=704835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=704835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}