\n\tLead or supporting? It\u2019s the season\u2019s first real strategic inquiry among awards enthusiasts, and the Academy\u2019s own record book argues both ways \u2014 including one cautionary precedent from Nolan\u2019s last epic to which Hathaway\u2019s team will have to pay very special attention.<\/p>\n
\n\tUniversal is expected to mount an aggressive awards campaign, hoping to deliver Nolan a second best picture and best director victory just three years after \u201cOppenheimer.\u201d In Variety\u2019s Oscar analysis, our current projection shows a path that tops out at 17 nominations. Sixteen would tie the record set just last season by Ryan Coogler\u2019s \u201cSinners,\u201d which surpassed the long-standing mark of 14 shared by \u201cAll About Eve\u201d (1950), \u201cTitanic\u201d (1997) and \u201cLa La Land\u201d (2016).<\/p>\n
\n\tHowever, don\u2019t expect an answer anytime soon. Nolan has long avoided awards strategy conversations until well after a film opens, meaning category discussions with the studio and talent are unlikely to begin in earnest until later this fall \u2014 at least not formally.<\/p>\n
\n\tFor Hathaway, \u201cThe Odyssey\u201d anchors a busy year that has already included the blockbuster \u201cThe Devil Wears Prada 2,\u201d and the well-received (but financially disappointing) \u201cMother Mary.\u201d Still to come are the end-of-summer thriller \u201cThe End of Oak Street\u201d and the Colleen Hoover adaptation \u201cVerity.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tVote splitting across multiple films is unlikely to be Hathaway\u2019s biggest concern. The more pressing question is which category offers the clearest path to a nomination \u2014 and perhaps a second Oscar after \u201cLes Mis\u00e9rables\u201d (2012) in supporting actress. In addition, there\u2019s also the matter of whether her placement will help or hurt another viable contending co-star: Samantha Morton, whose Circe has drawn some of the film\u2019s loudest raves.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe good news for Hathaway is that whatever is ultimately chosen, there isn\u2019t a category fraud debate to be had. Every year we have a few contenders that can go either way, depending on how voters feel. Think back to examples like Maria Bello in \u201cA History of Violence\u201d (2005) or Meryl Streep in \u201cThe Devil Wears Prada\u201d (2006).\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tThere\u2019s a compelling argument for either category, based on audience reaction and on the voters themselves. And interestingly, the Oscar history books read like a coin flip.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t![\"\"](\"https:\/\/variety.com\/wp-content\/themes\/pmc-variety-2020\/assets\/public\/lazyload-fallback.gif\")
<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMelinda Sue Gordon<\/p>\n
\n\tLet\u2019s start with the basics. Across his entire filmography, Nolan\u2019s films have produced only four acting nominations. The good news for whoever gets campaigned: three of those four converted. Heath Ledger won supporting actor for \u201cThe Dark Knight\u201d (2008). Cillian Murphy won lead actor and Robert Downey Jr. won supporting actor for \u201cOppenheimer\u201d (2023). So while Nolan\u2019s performers rarely earn acting nominations, when they do, they often win.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe bad news is that fourth name, and it belongs to one of Hathaway\u2019s \u201cbesties.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tThe last time Nolan built a sprawling ensemble around a great man, making perilous choices and handing the wife the emotional load, that actress was Emily Blunt in \u201cOppenheimer.\u201d She campaigned in supporting, was nominated, and eventually lost to Da\u2019Vine Joy Randolph in \u201cThe Holdovers\u201d \u2014 on a night when \u201cOppenheimer\u201d won seven Academy Awards, including best picture, director and both of the other acting categories it was up for.<\/p>\n
\n\tThat is a scenario Universal and Hathaway\u2019s team have to game out. Like Blunt\u2019s Kitty Oppenheimer, Penelope serves as the emotional anchor while her husband\u2019s story unfolds elsewhere. It\u2019s a role the Academy frequently nominates but one that doesn\u2019t always translate into a win.<\/p>\n
\n\tOf the 90 supporting actress winners in Oscar history, 56 of them (or 62%) came from a film nominated for best picture. Still, only 14 (or 16%) came from the film that actually won it. Riding the year\u2019s juggernaut gets you on the ballot, but it does not, often enough, get you to the podium.<\/p>\n
\n\tBut if a studio wants to double dip in an acting category, supporting actress is where it works best \u2014 the race most likely to recognize two or more performers from the same film. It has happened 37 times, compared with 23 in supporting actor, 12 in lead actor and only five in lead actress. If Universal campaigns Hathaway in supporting alongside Morton, it\u2019s the most common double-double in Academy history.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe problem is how rarely one of those women walks away with the trophy. In those 37 cases, one of the two nominees won 13 times (or 35%). That means nearly two out of three times, a film lands two supporting actress nominations, and both women go home empty-handed. It happened as recently as last season, when \u201cSentimental Value\u201d put up Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and the category went to Amy Madigan for \u201cWeapons.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tWhen you sort those 37 films by how they fared in best picture, it actually reveals an illuminating pattern. I grouped every case into three buckets and tracked how often one of the two nominated actresses actually won:<\/p>\n
When the film won best picture: eight cases, six winners (or 75%).<\/p>\n
\u201cGone with the Wind\u201d (1939), \u201cMrs. Miniver\u201d (1942), \u201cGentleman\u2019s Agreement\u201d (1947), \u201cKramer vs. Kramer\u201d (1979), \u201cChicago\u201d (2002) and \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d (2022) all produced a supporting actress winner. Only \u201cAll About Eve\u201d (1950) and \u201cTom Jones\u201d (1963) went home empty-handed.<\/p>\n
When the film was nominated for best picture but lost: There were 17 cases, and five winners (or 29%).<\/p>\n
Helen Hayes for \u201cAirport\u201d (1970), Cloris Leachman for \u201cThe Last Picture Show\u201d (1971), Jessica Lange for \u201cTootsie\u201d (1982), Melissa Leo for \u201cThe Fighter\u201d (2010) and Octavia Spencer for \u201cThe Help\u201d (2011)<\/p>\n
When the film missed best picture entirely: There are 12 cases and only two winners (or 17%). Tatum O\u2019Neal for \u201cPaper Moon\u201d (1973) and Dianne Wiest for \u201cBullets Over Broadway\u201d (1994).<\/p>\n
\n\tSo in other words, the double is a strong play only if Universal genuinely believes \u201cThe Odyssey\u201d is winning the top prize. Short of that, it has produced far more consolation nominations than statuettes.<\/p>\n
\n\tSo what about a lead actress run? Well, no Nolan film has ever produced a lead actress nominee. Campaigning Hathaway in lead would ask Academy voters to recognize the first female lead performance of his career \u2014 and for a studio that has openly signaled it wants history alongside its trophies, that\u2019s the kind of hook voters can repeat back to one another. That would open up the possibility of \u201cThe Odyssey\u201d joining the list of 15 other films that have been nominated in all four acting categories, which began with \u201cMy Man Godfrey\u201d (1936) to \u201cAmerican Hustle\u201d (2013).\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\tThere\u2019s a risk to this move. <\/p>\n
\n\tCampaigning what some may perceive as a supporting role in lead can leave a performance just outside the lineup, as it did for Richard Gere in \u201cChicago\u201d (2002) and Chase Infiniti in \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (2025) \u2014 both best picture winners, and both had four other acting noms that missed out in a key category.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tUniversal Pictures<\/p>\n
\n\tObviously, Morton\u2019s possible return could complicate matters further. Nolan shared publicly that her Circe drew an on-set ovation from the crew, something he hadn\u2019t seen since Ledger on \u201cThe Dark Knight.\u201d That\u2019s a valuable endorsement for the season ahead. She\u2019s also carrying her own narrative that supporting actress can reward. Morton has two previous noms, supporting for \u201cSweet and Lowdown\u201d (1999) and lead for \u201cIn America\u201d (2003), and hasn\u2019t been on a ballot since. An overdue veteran with an unforgettable single sequence in a prestige juggernaut is, on paper, precisely what the Academy membership could find irresistible.<\/p>\n
\n\tIf forced to project today, I\u2019d lean toward supporting as the safer route to a nom, but whether it yields a win depends almost entirely on whether Morton\u2019s buzz turns out to be real.<\/p>\n
\n\tUniversal has until fall festival season to decide, and history offers compelling arguments for either strategy with no definitive answer. That\u2019s precisely what makes Hathaway\u2019s category placement one of the season\u2019s earliest \u2014 and most fascinating \u2014 Oscar questions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cIthaca\u2019s king is coming home.\u201d But when Oscar season arrives, where will the Academy welcome back its queen?…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":709892,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[9018,6491,2826,96,33357,22546,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-709891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-celebrities","tag-anne-hathaway","tag-celebrities","tag-christopher-nolan","tag-entertainment","tag-oscars","tag-the-odyssey","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=709891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709891\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/709892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=709891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=709891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=709891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}