{"id":711224,"date":"2026-07-25T23:53:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T23:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/711224\/"},"modified":"2026-07-25T23:53:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T23:53:00","slug":"architecture-in-a-k-shaped-economy-with-widening-differences-between-sectors-aia-says-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/711224\/","title":{"rendered":"Architecture in a K-shaped economy with \u2018widening differences\u2019 between sectors, AIA says | News"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Construction photo of The Broad Expansion in Los Angeles. Photo: Owen Kolasinski, courtesy The Broad.<\/p>\n

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The AIA\u2019s<\/a> latest Consensus Construction Forecast<\/a> has projected a 0.3% decline for U.S. nonresidential building construction spending in 2026 amid continued economic uncertainty and uneven performance across sectors. The forecast characterizes the market as \u201cK-shaped,\u201d with sectors tied to public funding, healthcare demand, and artificial intelligence investment outperforming interest rate-sensitive sectors.<\/p>\n

Through the first five months of 2026, nonresidential building construction spending fell 7% in nominal terms compared with the same period in 2025, following a 2% decline in 2025 to $846 billion. Institutional construction remains one of the strongest-performing sectors. After increasing 1.9% in 2025, institutional spending is forecast to rise 2.8% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with healthcare and recreation projects expected to lead growth.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Extract from the AIA’s latest Consensus Construction Forecast. The interactive data is available to view here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing construction received the largest downward revision, with spending now projected to fall 11.6% in 2026 after declining 6.7% in 2025. The forecast attributed the slowdown to reduced public investment following earlier federal funding initiatives, alongside uncertainty surrounding tariffs<\/a> and long-term capital investment decisions.<\/p>\n

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Related on Archinect: ‘Architects Are Lost as a Profession’: Former HOK CEO Patrick MacLeamy Speaks Out<\/a><\/p>\n

Commercial construction, meanwhile, is expected to increase 4.8% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027, largely driven by continued expansion of data centers. Excluding data center projects, the forecast would instead indicate a 1% decline in commercial spending this year.<\/p>\n

The report also points to persistent high interest rates, inflation, tariffs, labor shortages, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising oil prices as factors weighing on construction activity. In addition, earlier this week we reported that the AIA\u2019s Architecture Billings Index has continued to indicate weak demand<\/a> across much of the nonresidential market despite sustained project inquiries.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Related on Archinect:\u00a0Architecture billings improve slightly in June as industry slump enters 41st month<\/a><\/p>\n

Digging deeper into their characterization of a K-shaped market, the forecast noted that data centers, hotels, health care, and amusement and recreation projects are growing the strongest. Meanwhile, the bottom arm of the K-shaped economy contains retreating categories including traditional offices, warehouses, and manufacturing. The remaining sectors \u201ctreading water\u201d are retail and education.<\/p>\n

We want to hear from you: What is the business mood in your region and market? Does the report reflect what you are feeling in your practice? Share in the comments.<\/p>\n

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