Andy Burnham has spent his first two weeks as prime minister in a blitz of hyperactivity. Bus fares, business rates, energy bill cuts, defence, Ukraine and devolution \u2013 he has been everywhere.<\/p>\n
But at his speech on Wednesday at Jewish Care in north London, there was a stark reminder of how much even the most energetic prime minister can cut through.<\/p>\n
One resident in the care home asked Burnham if he was the local candidate, and was amazed when told there was \u2013 yet again \u2013 a new prime minister.<\/p>\n
Despite that amusing hiccup, Labour<\/a> MPs broadly feel a renewed sense of optimism in the \u201cBurnham bounce\u201d and in the party seizing its first polling lead since March 2025 in two polls released this week.<\/p>\n Bar chart of recent increase in Labour’s polling<\/a><\/p>\n Both the Conservatives<\/a> and the Liberal Democrats say they had been expecting a Labour surge, especially with Reform UK\u2019s Nigel Farage in trouble over donations and fighting a byelection.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have consistently said internally we thought Labour would overtake Reform within a fortnight of Burnham becoming PM, it\u2019s actually been pretty spot on,\u201d one Conservative official said.<\/p>\n \u201cI think it is clear now that there are two parties who have the upward momentum \u2013 us and Labour \u2013 and two whose support is falling \u2013 Reform and the Greens.\u201d<\/p>\n Is it a honeymoon or is it a sustainable trajectory? In new MRP polling of more than 10,000 voters \u2013 seen by the Guardian \u2013 Burnham has received a bounce of six points in voting intention compared with mid-June, taking Labour to 26%, ahead of Reform on 23%. The poll puts Labour ahead on seats, though still some way short of a majority.<\/p>\n According to the poll, Labour would win 245 seats, with Reform on 174 seats, the Conservatives on 99 seats, and the Lib Dems on 67 seats. This would mean a hung parliament where a coalition would probably require at least three parties to form a majority.<\/p>\n The poll from Convergent suggests the bounce comes primarily from droves of progressive voters lost to the Greens and Lib Dems returning to Labour (more than half of 2024 Labour voters who voted Green and Lib Dem in the May elections now say they would vote Labour again). In contrast, less than a fifth of those 2024 Labour voters who voted Reform in May have come back to the party.<\/p>\n Dylan Spielman, co-founder of Convergent, led Labour\u2019s data science team through the 2024 general election. He said: \u201cThe Andy Burnham bounce is real but not yet big enough to put Labour back on course for a majority. So far the recovery has mainly come from reuniting the progressive bloc.<\/p>\n \u201cBut Labour is making much less progress winning back Reform voters and Conservatives who are pivotal in marginal seats, and squeezed voters remain Labour\u2019s weakest group. Sustaining the recovery will depend on Labour continuing to demonstrate that its cost-of-living agenda is delivering, and broadening its appeal beyond progressives.\u201d<\/p>\n The analysis shows Labour has regained most ground in the north of England, particularly the north-west where Burnham has his roots and Yorkshire and Humber.<\/p>\n But the recovery is so far minimal in Wales and Scotland \u2013 where Burnham will spend some more time this summer after heavy losses to the SNP and to Plaid Cymru in May. Labour also lost control of the Senedd for the first time.<\/p>\n More than half of those polled were unable to identify particular policies that they had heard of \u2013 despite the early blitz of cost-of-living measures and announcements on social care and youth unemployment. It was the first policy Burnham announced \u2013 \u00a32 bus fares<\/a> and VAT off energy bills<\/a> \u2013 which were the policies that voters say they have heard about.<\/p>\n But uniting that bloc is a key first step, argues James Baggaley from UCL\u2019s Policy Lab, which has done significant work with the renowned Democrat pollster Stan Greenberg on Labour\u2019s progressive problem.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat was striking from our polling before Andy Burnham entered Downing Street was the fact that despite media focus, a majority of voters outside of the north-west didn\u2019t have a clear idea of him. That meant the early days and weeks were both opportunity and a risk,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n