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Image credit: SWPCVideo credit: NASA SDO\/AIA 304<\/p>\nSolar activity reached moderate levels on July 30 after Region 4492 (N15W82, Hax\/alpha) produced a long-duration M1.9\/Sf at 17L00 UTC. Coinciding with the flare was an approximately eight-degree-long filament eruption, centered near N20W67.<\/p>\n
Additionally, two Type II radio sweeps were observed \u2014 the first at 16:27 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 853 km\/s, and the second at 16:45 UTC, estimated velocity 1 681 km\/s. Other radio events included a Type IV sweep at 16:31 UTC, and a 17-minute-long Tenflare (190 sfu) that peaked at 16:43 UTC.<\/p>\n
The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux crossed the S1 \u2013 Minor solar radiation storm threshold at 18:45 UTC on July 30 and reached a peak of 18 pfu at 20:55 UTC. The flux fell below the S1 threshold by 00:30 UTC on July 31 and passed the threshold again at 13:27 UTC.<\/p>\n
SWPC said the proton enhancements were likely associated with the M1.9 flare from Region 4492. The agency retained a chance of renewed S1 conditions on July 31 and August 1, while the greater-than-2 MeV electron flux was expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through August 2.<\/p>\n
A partial-halo CME appeared in GOES CCOR2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 17:15 UTC, while STEREO COR2 imagery showed a full-halo signature beginning at 16:53 UTC. WSA-Enlil model runs placed a possible arrival at Earth early on August 2.<\/p>\n
Image credit: SWPCImage credit: SWPCVideo credit: NASA SDO\/AIA 304<\/p>\n
Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today. Total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT, solar wind speed was mainly between 300 and 330 km\/s, and the phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.<\/p>\n
SWPC said a diminishing chance of disturbed solar wind conditions remained on July 31 as CMEs launched on July 26 and 27 could still graze Earth. Another disturbance is possible on August 1 from a CME that left the Sun late on July 27, combined with weak influence from a coronal hole high speed stream. A more pronounced enhancement in solar wind parameters is likely early on August 2 as the July 30 CME passes by Earth.<\/p>\n
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are forecast through August 1, with isolated active periods possible under the combined influence of a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream and glancing or relatively weak effects from the July 26 and 27 CMEs.<\/p>\n
SWPC expects G1-G2 geomagnetic storm levels on August 2 due to the anticipated arrival of the July 30 CME. Under G2 geomagnetic storm conditions, high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, while prolonged storming can affect transformers.<\/p>\n
Spacecraft operators may need to make orientation corrections, and increased drag can affect satellites in low Earth orbit. High-frequency radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora may become visible as far south as New York and Idaho in the United States under favorable conditions.<\/p>\n
Solar activity is expected to remain low through August 2, with a chance of M-class flares and associated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.<\/p>\n
References:<\/p>\n