WASHINGTON: Employers in the United States likely stepped up their pace of hiring in July, showing a steady appetite for workers despite the overhang of geopolitical concerns and elevated inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Economists estimate the monthly jobs report on Friday will show an 85,000 increase in payrolls after the lower-than-expected 57,000 gain in June, according to the Bloomberg survey median.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The unemployment rate, which is based on a survey of households rather than establishments, is seen holding steady at 4.2%.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Job growth has accelerated this year compared with 2025, supporting consumer spending.<\/p>\n
In the second quarter (2Q), one measure of underlying demand in the US economy surged ahead at the strongest pace since early 2023, fuelled by households and businesses alike.\u00a0<\/p>\n
With the labour market and economy showing resilience, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are pushing to increase interest rates to tamp down inflation.<\/p>\n
While the US central bank kept rates unchanged this past week, three policymakers voted to raise them.<\/p>\n
Investors will have a slew of other labour market data to parse, including job openings tomorrow, ADP Research\u2019s estimate of private-sector payroll growth on Wednesday, and applications for unemployment insurance on Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Bloomberg Economics analysts Anna Wong, Stuart Paul and Eliza Winger said: \u201cThe labour market appears less stable than the headline unemployment rate suggests.<\/p>\n
Temporary hiring associated with the FIFA World Cup is likely to reverse, leading to declines in leisure and hospitality employment, alongside weakness in construction.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead to the fall, hiring increasingly will depend on state and local governments \u2013 and we don\u2019t see them as a particularly robust source of support, given tighter budgets and slowing growth in tax revenues.<\/p>\n
\u201dMeanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management\u2019s surveys of service providers and manufacturers will offer an updated look at economic activity in July.<\/p>\n
Fed officials speaking during the week include Kansas City\u2019s Jeff Schmid, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Alberto Musalem of St Louis.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, Canada\u2019s jobs report is also due, with economists expecting another increase. Central bankers in Brazil are likely to cut rates, while those in Mexico, India and the Czech Republic may stay on hold.<\/p>\n
Asia\u2019s latest economic data will test how well the region can withstand another Middle East energy shock, as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran keeps crude oil prices elevated and heaps pressure on most of the region\u2019s currencies.<\/p>\n
The Reserve Bank of India\u2019s rate decision on Wednesday is the week\u2019s centrepiece.<\/p>\n
Officials will likely keep their key rate unchanged, opting to \u201cwait and watch\u201d should higher energy prices spur persistent inflation in one of Asia\u2019s biggest crude importers.<\/p>\n
A raft of purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) data across Asia will be released today, offering a gauge of whether the conflict is beginning to ripple through supply chains, freight routes and business confidence.<\/p>\n
The continued boom in artificial intelligence should lift PMIs for those in the global tech supply chain, including Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.<\/p>\n
Trade releases from Australia and China may help paint a more complete picture of a broader deterioration in business activity. Inflation will also dominate the calendar.<\/p>\n
Faster price growth would complicate the policy outlook for central banks that may otherwise want to support slowing demand, while softer readings could offer only temporary relief if the Iran war drags on.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg Intelligence expects South Korea\u2019s inflation to slow into the high-2% range in July, then climb above 3% in August, keeping alive the case for back-to-back rate hikes.<\/p>\n
Also reporting inflation data are Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand \u2013 all of which are heavily reliant on energy imports from the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, growth figures from Indonesia on Wednesday and the Philippines on Friday will show how South-East Asia entered the latest escalation.<\/p>\n
The data largely predates the renewed conflict, but weak consumption, investment or exports would point to limited buffers against another external shock.<\/p>\n
A very quiet week in Europe follows 2Q output numbers that came in stronger than expected for the euro area.<\/p>\n
Scheduled releases include industry gauges for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and final PMI numbers across the region.<\/p>\n
Beyond the 21-nation currency area, inflation numbers will be the focus.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In Switzerland, today\u2019s figures for July are expected to show another deceleration, to 0.4%, supporting the central bank\u2019s expectations that it will be able to stick with rates at zero for some time.<\/p>\n
On the same day, Turkish data are likely to reveal that annual inflation continued easing in July, after previously slowing for the first time since the start of the Iran war.<\/p>\n
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the release to show that prices increased 31.9%, down from 32.1% in June.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Swedish inflation numbers come on Thursday, with analysts expecting a further slowdown that would buy the Riksbank additional time to leave its key rate on hold.<\/p>\n
On monetary policy, all eyes are on Prague, where the Czech central bank on Thursday will likely keep borrowing costs unchanged after delivering its first hike in four years in June to tame persistent domestic price pressures.<\/p>\n
Central bankers in Albania and Armenia also set rates.<\/p>\n
Central banks and inflation are the big-ticket items from Latin America, with Banco Central do Brasil the main attraction.<\/p>\n
Surprisingly low inflation figures for June in Brazil, followed by much lower-than-expected mid-month readings \u2013 the 4.52% year-on-year print was below all 33 estimates \u2013 have most Brazil-watchers looking for a fourth straight quarter-point rate cut, to 14%.<\/p>\n
In Chile, gross domestic product (GDP) proxy data for June may show a modest uptick after five straight negative prints amid slack domestic demand and investment.<\/p>\n
Local economists have marked down their 2026 GDP forecast to 1.3% from a previous 1.6% call.<\/p>\n
The minutes of Banco Central de Chile\u2019s July decision \u2013 where policymakers kept the key rate at 4.5% for a fifth straight meeting \u2013 will likely dovetail with the post-decision communique\u2019s cautious, data-dependent tone given the elevated level of geoeconomic turbulence buffeting countries worldwide.<\/p>\n
Some easing in energy prices in Chile last month more than likely slowed inflation from June\u2019s 4.3% reading, which was up from February\u2019s 2.4% pre-Iran-war print.<\/p>\n
Ahead of Colombia President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella\u2019s inauguration, the central bank will publish its quarterly monetary policy report, updating key economic forecasts, as well as the minutes of its July 31 rate meeting, where policymakers unexpectedly kept their key rate unchanged at 12%.<\/p>\n
In Mexico, Banxico would appear to have a clear path to keeping its key rate at 6.5% for a second straight meeting.<\/p>\n
Inflation has slowed to just above target, while the economy in the 2Q posted its fastest growth since the pandemic.<\/p>\n
Analysts see a unanimous vote by the board, led by Governor Victoria Rodr\u00edguez Ceja, to hold borrowing costs unchanged.<\/p>\n
Closing out the week, Mexico\u2019s July and bi-weekly inflation readings, now running at five-year lows, may both move ever closer to converging with the central bank\u2019s 3% inflation target. \u2014 Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON: Employers in the United States likely stepped up their pace of hiring in July, showing a steady…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":725240,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,2195,4235,1634,7641,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-725239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-employment","tag-job","tag-labour","tag-payroll","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=725239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725239\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/725240"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=725239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=725239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=725239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}