Introduction: UK economy faces recession if strait of Hormuz remains closed<\/p>\n
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.<\/p>\n
EY has kicked off the week with a warning that the UK could fall into recession next year if the strait of Hormuz remains closed.<\/p>\n
The consultant\u2019s latest economic outlook has suggested that gross domestic product (GDP) could slow sharply to 0.5% this year and contract by 0.2% next year if the conflict is not resolved and the vital waterway \u2013 through which a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and gas is normally carried \u2013 remains shut until early or mid-2027.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, if the strait reopens by the end of the third quarter of this year, EY\u2019s base case forecast suggests growth will remain fairly resilient, at 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.<\/p>\n
Peter Arnold, EY UK chief economist, said although the UK economy was more resilient than many expected this year (which has prompted his team to upgrade its growth forecast for the year from an 0.8% estimate made in May to 0.9%), there is still uncertainty ahead.<\/p>\n
double quotation markOngoing disruption to global energy markets will now start to test this economic resilience. If the strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming months, we expect the UK to avoid a more pronounced downturn, but an extended closure into 2027 would raise inflation and could push the economy into contraction next year.<\/p>\n
As growth becomes harder to sustain, the UK is likely to rely increasingly on those sectors that have underpinned economic performance in recent years, particularly technology and high-value business services. At the same time, longstanding pressures in construction remain a concern. Rising project costs, persistent labour shortages and weak productivity growth risk constraining the delivery of major infrastructure projects at a time when demand remains high. Enhancing productivity in the sector will be critical if the UK is to deliver its infrastructure ambitions while supporting broader economic growth.\u201d <\/p>\n
The warning comes as oil prices have fallen back today, with the international benchmark Brent crude now down about 5% to $83.49 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East ebb.<\/p>\n
Over the weekend, Donald Trump<\/a> said he cancelled planned military strikes against Iran on the basis of \u201crapidly\u201d reaching a deal on its nuclear programme and the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz<\/a>.<\/p>\n The US president paused the strikes in expectation of a breakthrough and in response to requests from Iran<\/a> and other countries in the region, he claimed on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.<\/p>\n He wrote:<\/p>\n double quotation markBased on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.\u201d<\/p>\n Elsewhere this morning, there are reports that the UK drugmaker AstraZeneca is in talks to combine with US rival Bristol Myers Squibb, in a deal that would create a pharmaceutical group worth nearly $400bn.<\/p>\n The Financial Times first reported that the companies have held discussions about a tie-up in recent months, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n AstraZeneca, which is London\u2019s second most valuable listed company, has a market value of about \u00a3196bn, while BMS is worth roughly $133bn. A combination of the two would make one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world.<\/p>\n The agenda<\/p>\n 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI<\/p>\n 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI<\/p>\n 3pm BST: US manufacturing PMI<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.25 EDT<\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Hiring for UK graduates at lowest level since pandemicGraduates wait to be photographed after a degree ceremony at Birmingham university in the UK Photograph: Andrew Fox\/Alamy<\/p>\n Job postings for UK graduates hit their lowest level since 2020, according to a survey by the jobs platform Indeed.<\/p>\n It found that overall vacancies dropped 11% between the start of 2026 and 17 July, and were 32% lower than before the pandemic. Graduate job postings fell 7% year-on-year, and are at the lowest level for the time of year since 2020.<\/p>\n Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markThe UK\u2019s labour market is \u2060under sustained pressure. Hiring demand is falling across most parts of the economy, while posted wage growth is \u2060gradually cooling.<\/p>\n That is particularly challenging \u200bfor graduates and younger workers, \u200cwho are competing \u200cfor fewer opportunities to gain an initial foothold.\u201c<\/p>\n Meanwhile summer job postings, which are normally taken up by students and other young people, are at their weakest level in four years.<\/p>\n It comes as Andy Burnham faces a growing youth unemployment crisis, with roughly 1 million 16-24 year-olds (about one in eight) not in jobs, training or education.<\/a> The new prime minister said last week that schools across England should adapt their curriculums to the needs of local businesses as part of a devolution drive aimed at tackling the jobs crisis for young people.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>European stock markets rally as oil price drops<\/p>\n European stocks and bonds are rallying this morning as the oil price falls \u2013 the Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest companies on the continent, is up 0.5%.<\/p>\n The UK\u2019s blue chip FTSE<\/a> 100 index is however flat this morning, with shares in the likes of BP and Shell down 2.8% and 2% respectively on the back of a weaker oil price.<\/p>\n The mid-cap FTSE 250 is rising, up 0.8%, with shares in the shipping group Clarkson\u2019s shooting up 15% after it reported its best ever profit for the first half of the year on the back of disruption in the Middle East.<\/a><\/p>\n The drop in the oil price this morning is also helping gilt yields to fall back, with the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.98%.<\/p>\n Kathleen Brooks, of the broker XTB, says the drop in oil prices should help support markets today.<\/p>\n double quotation markOvernight, president Trump said that negotiations to find a peace deal with Iran could start today, which has led Brent crude to fall back towards $83 per barrel. This will ease inflation fears and could also act as a dampener on bond yields, which rose sharply last week, especially at the long end, where 30-year US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level for 19 years.<\/a><\/p>\n \u2026This is another huge week for financial markets. Firstly, there is a large amount of fresh economic data, including the latest labour market data from the US. 20% of the S&P 500 report earnings this week, including Palantir and SanDisk. SpaceX will also release its first earnings report on Tuesday. The market wants to know if the tech sell-off is over, what the yen will do next after unprecedented multilateral intervention to prop up the currency, and US Treasury yields are also in focus.<\/p>\n If anyone thought things would be quiet for markets this August, they are only heating up.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.26 EDT<\/p>\n EasyJet extends takeover deadline for suitor Castlelake<\/p>\n EasyJet has extended its deadline for suitor Castlelake to decide whether to make \u2060a firm takeover offer for the business.<\/p>\n Castlelake\u2019s \u201cput \u200bup or shut \u200cup\u201d deadline has been pushed to7 \u200cAugust from 3 August, matching rival bidder Apollo\u2019s existing deadline.<\/p>\n The budget airline said it has been providing diligence access to both Apollo and Castlelake since the last proposal was made. It most recently backed a \u00a35.7bn takeover offer from Apollo in July, which trumped an earlier \u00a35.5bn bid by Castlelake.<\/p>\n There are still some questions hanging over the deal, including a potential EU review of rules around airline ownership.<\/p>\n Last month the company reported a 70% slide in profits because of soaring fuel costs and later bookings as a result of the conflict in Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.25 EDT<\/p>\n The shipping group Clarkson\u2019s has reported its best ever half-year performance this morning, benefiting from disruption in the Middle East.<\/p>\n Its pre-tax profit shot up 56% to \u00a361.5m in the first six months of the year, compared with the same period in 2025.<\/p>\n While conflict in the region has introduced dangers and delays across the shipping industry, it has also triggered a sharp rise in tanker and gas carrier rates. Shares in Clarkson\u2019s have already risen by about 24% so far this year.<\/p>\n Chief executive officer Andi Case said:<\/p>\n double quotation markClarksons delivered a record first half performance, reflecting both the investment into our underlying business and the exceptional volatility caused by the disruption to global trade from global conflict including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. We expect the full year performance of the group to be materially ahead of market expectations.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Healey promises to ‘clamp down’ on supermarket price gouging<\/p>\n The warning from EY follows comments from the new chancellor, John Healey<\/a>, that the government is standing by to prevent the public from \u201cbeing taken for a ride at the pump or the till\u201d as the Iran war continues to hit prices.<\/p>\n While he said there had been \u201cno significant evidence of so-called price gouging\u201d during the crisis, he used a weekend column to tell the big retailers that ministers were \u201cwatching closely\u201d for any signs of profiteering.<\/p>\n Healey faces a difficult economic balancing act as the energy price shock caused by the months-long conflict<\/a> in the Middle East reignites the cost of living crisis.<\/p>\n Last week the Bank of England kept UK interest rates on hold<\/a> as it warned that a further escalation in the Iran war could drive inflation above 4% next year, adding to financial pressures on households.<\/p>\n Healey wrote in the Sunday Telegraph:<\/p>\n double quotation markThe conflict affects our national security, our UK bases, personnel and allies in the Middle East. But it also threatens our economic security: impacting the family finances of millions of British people.<\/p>\n And I know that many British businesses have been put under pressure by increasing costs too. Conflict and uncertainty increases inflation, threatens growth and pushes up costs for businesses and governments alike.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.32 EDT<\/p>\n Introduction: UK economy faces recession if strait of Hormuz remains closed<\/p>\n Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.<\/p>\n EY has kicked off the week with a warning that the UK could fall into recession next year if the strait of Hormuz remains closed.<\/p>\n The consultant\u2019s latest economic outlook has suggested that gross domestic product (GDP) could slow sharply to 0.5% this year and contract by 0.2% next year if the conflict is not resolved and the vital waterway \u2013 through which a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and gas is normally carried \u2013 remains shut until early or mid-2027.<\/p>\n On the other hand, if the strait reopens by the end of the third quarter of this year, EY\u2019s base case forecast suggests growth will remain fairly resilient, at 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.<\/p>\n Peter Arnold, EY UK chief economist, said although the UK economy was more resilient than many expected this year (which has prompted his team to upgrade its growth forecast for the year from an 0.8% estimate made in May to 0.9%), there is still uncertainty ahead.<\/p>\n double quotation markOngoing disruption to global energy markets will now start to test this economic resilience. If the strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming months, we expect the UK to avoid a more pronounced downturn, but an extended closure into 2027 would raise inflation and could push the economy into contraction next year.<\/p>\n As growth becomes harder to sustain, the UK is likely to rely increasingly on those sectors that have underpinned economic performance in recent years, particularly technology and high-value business services. At the same time, longstanding pressures in construction remain a concern. Rising project costs, persistent labour shortages and weak productivity growth risk constraining the delivery of major infrastructure projects at a time when demand remains high. Enhancing productivity in the sector will be critical if the UK is to deliver its infrastructure ambitions while supporting broader economic growth.\u201d <\/p>\n The warning comes as oil prices have fallen back today, with the international benchmark Brent crude now down about 5% to $83.49 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East ebb.<\/p>\n Over the weekend, Donald Trump<\/a> said he cancelled planned military strikes against Iran on the basis of \u201crapidly\u201d reaching a deal on its nuclear programme and the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz<\/a>.<\/p>\n