{"id":738825,"date":"2026-08-15T12:42:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T12:42:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/738825\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T12:42:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T12:42:20","slug":"reform-could-slip-to-third-in-polls-pollsters-warn-as-farages-popularity-plummets-over-scandals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/738825\/","title":{"rendered":"Reform could slip to third in polls, pollsters warn as Farage\u2019s popularity plummets over scandals"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Reform UK is heading for third place in the polls and is being dragged down by its leader Nigel Farage<\/a>, leading polling experts have said. <\/p>\n

Labour<\/a>\u2019s Burnham \u2018bounce\u2019 has already seen the party leapfrog Reform in a number of national polls<\/a>, while the Conservatives<\/a>\u2019 recovery could see it do the same, they said. <\/p>\n

The forecast will come as a blow to the party, which topped the polls for more than a year until Andy Burnham<\/a> entered Downing Street, and Mr Farage himself, who on Friday secured his seat in Parliament again with victory in the Clacton by-election<\/a>. However, he could still be forced to fight for his political future if a restarted parliamentary investigation triggers another vote. <\/p>\n

\"NigelNigel Farage won the Clacton by-election on Friday (PA\/James Manning) (PA Wire)<\/p>\n

Peter Kellner, former president of polling company YouGov, told The Independent: \u201cAssuming nothing substantially changes and events take their course in the normal way, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reform sometime next year or the end of this year are in third place behind both Labour and the Conservatives.\u201d <\/p>\n

Tory peer and leading expert on polls Lord Hayward said: \u201cThere is no question in my mind that they’ve been surpassed by Labour already, and I’m quite surprised how fast they’re falling and that they might be surpassed by the Tories in the near future as well.\u201d <\/p>\n

Reform\u2019s slide began earlier this year, before Mr Burnham entered No 10, Mr Kellner said. Farage and Reform \u201cstarted sinking together,\u201d he said, which was \u201cnot surprising, because he is personally so closely identified with Reform that it would be surprising if their numbers didn’t rise and fall in parallel.\u201d <\/p>\n

Mr Farage has had a turbulent few months in which he has struggled to explain a \u00a35m \u2018gift\u2019 from a party donor and cryptobillionaire<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Under strict Commons rules, new MPs are required to register gifts worth more than \u00a3300 received in the previous 12 months, except where it \u201ccould not be reasonably thought by others\u201d to relate to their political activities .<\/p>\n

Mr Farage has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and said that he was not required to register the \u00a35m because it was purely personal. But if the parliamentary probe finds against him, it could trigger a second by-election. <\/p>\n

Mr Kellner said opinion polls showed the \u201csoftness\u201d of the Reform vote. \u201cAs for the story so far on that, in very round numbers, it seems to me that for every point the Conservatives climb, Reform has lost two. So Reform is clearly losing some people back to the Conservatives, but they’re also losing some back to Labour and now to Restore.\u201d <\/p>\n

\"Labour\u2019sLabour\u2019s \u2018Burnham\u2019 bounce has already put it ahead of Reform in four national opinion polls (Getty)<\/p>\n

He said he was \u201cnot sure\u201d there was anything Reform could do to arrest the slide.<\/p>\n

The party appeared to be occupying the role that the Lib Dems used to play \u201cof being the repository of protest votes in mid-term\u201d, he said. But, unlike the Lib Dems, their vote is not concentrated, but spread out across the country, meaning that, under a certain level of national support it is harder for them to win seats in Parliament. <\/p>\n

Lord Hayward said Reform were tied \u201cin a way that no other party is tied to the ratings of the leader.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was the announcement of Nigel Farage<\/a> to be leader in that unbelievable moment in the general election in 2024 and suddenly Reform became a serious contender. And so therefore yes, he has provided the motor for their rise, and unfortunately for Reform, he is currently providing the motor for their decline.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cI think that Farage is damaged among what I would describe as comfortably middle-class potential Reform voters who have now switched back to the Conservatives, or are not voting, or whatever it may happen to be.\u201d <\/p>\n

\"ExpertsExperts say Reform could be in third place behind Tory leader Kemi Badenoch\u2019s party (PA) (PA Wire)<\/p>\n

Luke Tryl told The Independent it was \u201cdifficult to know\u201d if the Conservatives could overtake Farage\u2019s party but \u201cthe Tories have definitely stabilised themselves and the question now is can Kemi turn her bounce into a party bounce? If she can, Reform are in serious trouble.\u201d <\/p>\n

On the question of whether Reform could soon be third in the polls, leading polling expert John Curtice told The Independent: \u201cI think I have already signalled that possibility (but no more than that).\u201d <\/p>\n

He added that when it comes to analysing Reform\u2019s slide \u201cyou cannot easily distinguish between Reform drop and Conservative gain: given most Reform voters are ex-Tories they tend to be two sides of the same coin.\u201d Reform have been approached for comment. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":738826,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-738825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/738825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=738825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/738825\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/738826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=738825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=738825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=738825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}