![\"Dark](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Dark20roasted20coffee20beans20with20scoop20by20Rattanapol20via20Shutterstock.jpg\")
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Dark roasted coffee beans with scoop by Rattanapol via Shutterstock <\/p>\n
September arabica coffee (KCU26<\/a>) closed up +18.30 (+5.30%) on Tuesday, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26<\/a>) closed up +85 (+2.32%).<\/p>\n Coffee prices added to Monday\u2019s sharp gains on Tuesday, with arabica surging to a 6.5-month high.\u00a0 The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is limiting coffee supplies and pushing prices sharply higher.\u00a0 Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that the Brazil 2026\/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%. \u00a0Brazil’s arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.\u00a0Meanwhile, the harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 74.6% complete as of August 7, behind last year’s comparable figure of 80.4%, according to a report released last Wednesday.<\/p>\n Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 229,214 bags on Tuesday.\u00a0 By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 5.25-month high of 4,622 lots on Tuesday.<\/p>\n Coffee prices also have support from last Monday’s devastating earthquake in Colombia, the world\u2019s second-largest producer of arabica beans.\u00a0 Among the areas hit by Monday’s 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production.\u00a0<\/p>\n Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report last Thursday quoting the head of Colombia’s coffee exporters association, Asoexport.\u00a0 Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.\u00a0 The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters.<\/p>\n Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should speed up the pace of the country’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.\u00a0 Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-coffee growing region.<\/p>\n Concerns that an El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices.\u00a0Coffee trader Commercial said the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026\/27 coffee crop.\u00a0On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.\u00a0This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.\u00a0<\/p>\n Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.\u00a0 On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y\/y to 1.31 MMT. \u00a0Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y\/y to 1.58 MMT.\u00a0Also, Vietnam’s 2025\/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y\/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).<\/p>\n The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.\u00a0 On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.\u00a0 The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y\/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y\/y.\u00a0 World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.\u00a0 On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026\/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y\/y.<\/p>\n On the date of publication, Rich Asplund<\/a> did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Dark roasted coffee beans with scoop by Rattanapol via Shutterstock September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up +18.30 (+5.30%)…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":530737,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[1397,43461,90,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-742376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-n-a","tag-science","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/742376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=742376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/742376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/530737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=742376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=742376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=742376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}