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<\/p>\nALMATY \u2013 Kazakhstan\u2019s transport sector maintained positive growth in January-July 2026, with the physical volume of transport and warehousing services increasing 7.4% year on year, down from 22.5% a year earlier. The slower pace of expansion, alongside diverging trends across transport modes, may signal a gradual shift in the structure of the country\u2019s logistics system, experts say.<\/p>\n
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Photo credit: shutterstock<\/p>\n
The latest figures from the Bureau of National Statistics\u2019 Aug. 12 report show that Kazakhstan\u2019s transport sector is still expanding, with freight transportation up 0.9% and freight turnover increasing 1.0%. Passenger transportation grew 4.5%, while passenger turnover rose 6.1%.<\/p>\n
However, the slower pace of growth does not necessarily indicate a weakening of the sector, according to financial economist Rassul Rysmambetov. He said the comparison with last year\u2019s 22.5% growth should be viewed in the context of a high base effect.<\/p>\n
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Rassul Rysmambetov, a financial analyst. Photo credit: Kazinform.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe slowdown from 22.5% to 7.4%, if calculated correctly, can\u2019t be explained as a crisis in transportation. Partially, it is a higher base effect, because last year\u2019s high growth rate cannot be sustained for long,\u201d Rysmambetov told the Astana Times.<\/p>\n
He described the current rate as still representing \u201crobust expansion,\u201d with the sources of growth becoming more diversified.<\/p>\n
\u201cNow we have domestic trade, road transportation, and Caspian shipping growing instead of high-volume transit and pipeline,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Different modes reflect different parts of the economy<\/p>\n
The overall figures conceal significant differences between individual segments. Road freight transportation increased 6.2% year on year, accounting for 37% of the sector\u2019s total freight volume. Freight turnover in the segment rose 6.5%.<\/p>\n
Maritime freight transportation increased 7.2%, while freight turnover grew 18%. Inland waterway transportation recorded particularly rapid growth, with freight volumes increasing 68.5% and freight turnover more than doubling, rising 109.6%.<\/p>\n
At the same time, railway freight volumes declined 1.7% to 190.1 million tonnes. Despite the decrease in physical volume, railway freight turnover increased 2.5% to 170.1 billion tonne-kilometres, accounting for 57% of total freight turnover.<\/p>\n
The combination of lower volumes and higher turnover may indicate that goods are being transported over longer distances. Pipeline transportation recorded a 2.6% decline in freight volumes, to 148.5 million tonnes, while freight turnover decreased 2.9%.<\/p>\n
According to Rysmambetov, however, comparing the performance of different transport modes too directly can be misleading.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe figures for different transportation means should be compared very cautiously. For example, a 2.6% decline in pipeline transportation reflects changes in oil production and export schedules rather than the same cargo, oil in this case, simply being moved to trucks, ships or rivers,\u201d he said, noting that different modes serve different parts of the economy.<\/p>\n
This distinction is important for interpreting the latest statistics. The decline in pipeline transportation coincides with an 8.9% year-on-year decrease in Kazakhstan\u2019s oil production during the first seven months of 2026, meaning that lower pipeline volumes cannot automatically be interpreted as evidence that oil cargo is shifting to alternative modes.<\/p>\n
Diversification rather than replacement<\/p>\n
The strong growth recorded by maritime and inland waterway transportation nevertheless raises questions about the changing role of alternative logistics routes. Rysmambetov cautioned that the particularly high growth rates in Caspian shipping and inland waterway transportation also partly reflect a low comparison base.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn general, the country is building diversified transportation options rather than replacing its traditional routes. Railways and pipelines will stay the backbone of the system, while road, maritime and river transport are becoming more and more important as complementary channels,\u201d Rysmambetov said.<\/p>\n
This distinction could be important for Kazakhstan\u2019s long-term transport strategy. A more diversified system would not necessarily mean moving away from railways or pipelines, which remain critical for large-scale freight and energy exports. Instead, it would give businesses additional options for moving goods and accessing different markets.<\/p>\n
Warehousing emerges as a critical part of the logistics system<\/p>\n