Moody\u2019s Ratings has changed Nigeria\u2019s credit outlook from stable to positive while affirming the country\u2019s B3 long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings.\n<\/p>\n
Positive outlook, the agency said, reflected improvements in Nigeria\u2019s external position and stronger-than-expected economic growth, which, if sustained, could improve the country\u2019s ability to absorb external shocks and strengthen its economic resilience.\n<\/p>\n
It announced the change in a rating action published on its website on Friday.\n<\/p>\n
According to the agency, the improvements were driven by sizeable current account surpluses, increased foreign exchange reserves, improved foreign exchange market functioning and more effective monetary policy transmission.<\/p>\n
It added that gradually higher oil production was expected to support economic growth in 2026 and 2027.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cThe change in outlook to positive from stable reflects improvements in Nigeria\u2019s external position and stronger-than-expected economic growth, which, if sustained, would enhance the country\u2019s capacity to absorb external shocks, strengthen economic resilience and, over time, support a gradual increase in government revenue,\u201d Moody\u2019s said.\n<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s is a leading global credit rating firm that independently assesses the creditworthiness of governments and companies to help investors gauge the risk of default.<\/p>\n
The agency said Nigeria\u2019s external position had strengthened significantly over the past year, noting that the current account surplus had exceeded its previous expectations.\n<\/p>\n
It forecast Nigeria\u2019s current account surplus to widen to about 6.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2026 before narrowing to 4.1 per cent in 2027.\n<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s also said Nigeria\u2019s gross foreign exchange reserves, excluding gold, Special Drawing Rights and the International Monetary Fund position, rose to about 31.2bn a year earlier.\n<\/p>\n
The reserves, it said, now cover about six months of imports.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cTaken together, the large current account surpluses and the reserve accumulation, if maintained, would materially reduce Nigeria\u2019s external vulnerability,\u201d the agency said. <\/p>\n
On economic growth, Moody\u2019s said Nigeria\u2019s real GDP growth reached four per cent in 2025, compared with its previous assessment that medium-term growth would remain closer to three per cent.\n<\/p>\n
It expects growth to remain around four per cent over the next few years, supported by continued strength in the non-oil economy and gradually higher oil production.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s also said headline inflation declined to 15.4 per cent in July 2026 from 25.3 per cent a year earlier.\n<\/p>\n
It attributed the decline partly to the fading effects of price adjustments that followed exchange rate liberalisation and fuel subsidy removal, as well as the Central Bank of Nigeria\u2019s restrictive monetary policy stance.\n<\/p>\n
The affirmation of the B3 ratings, however, underscores persistent fiscal pressures stemming from still-limited revenue-generation capacity and weak debt affordability, despite a moderate debt burden.\n<\/p>\n
The rating firm noted that general government revenue stood at around 10 per cent of GDP in 2025, among the lowest globally,\n<\/p>\n
The positive outlook follows earlier upgrades in June 2025 when Moody\u2019s raised Nigeria\u2019s long-term issuer ratings<\/a> to B3 from Caa1 and shifted the outlook to stable from positive.\n<\/p>\n