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Over half (55%) of British adults believe the United Kingdom will exist in its current form in five years\u2019 time, up from 42% in October 2019.The public are split on whether the Union will still exist in ten years\u2019 time though, with just 35% saying it will and 34% saying it won\u2019t.Only 24% believe the current constitutional set-up will be in place in twenty years\u2019 time, down from 34% when first measured in June 2014.<\/p>\n
Ipsos, London: Newly released data from Ipsos in the UK, following May’s elections and building on political polls across the nations of the UK, reveals that while a majority of the public expect the Union still to exist in its current form in the short and medium term, there is growing public scepticism over its long-term viability.<\/p>\n
This polling arrives as nationalist party leaders across Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland sign a joint declaration stating that \u2018Westminster\u2019s time is coming to an end\u2019 and that each nation will determine its own future \u2018in its own way and in its own time\u2019, signalling a shifting constitutional landscape. \u00a0<\/p>\n
Commenting on the findings, Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland said:<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve been tracking the public\u2019s expectations for the UK\u2019s future since 2014 and as the leaders of Plaid Cymru, Sinn F\u00e9in and the SNP meet today to discuss just that, we reveal shifts in the British public\u2019s view of the future of the Union. \u00a0<\/p>\n
The immediate future of the United Kingdom is taken as a given by most Britons, but public certainty evaporates the further we ask them to look into the future.<\/p>\n
The fall in those expecting change over a five-to ten-year horizon suggests that the public by and large do not expect the break-up of the Union in the medium term. The longer-term picture looks more concerning for Andy Burnham and the UK Government, however, with more of the public expecting the UK not to exist in its current form in 20 years\u2019 time than expect it still to exist. \u00a0<\/p>\n
Only time will tell whether, in hindsight, the declaration in Cardiff Bay will come to be seen as an event that hastened the break-up of the Union or not.<\/p>\n
Long-term erosion of confidence in the union’s current structure<\/p>\n
The latest Ipsos tracking data highlights a decline in public expectation regarding the long-term future of the Union.<\/p>\n
Over a five-year outlook, 55% of Britons think the UK will still exist in its current form, a significant increase from 42% recorded in October 2019 but down from 62% who believed it would survive back in June 2014.Looking 10 years ahead, the British public are divided in their expectations for the Union\u2019s future: 35% believe the UK will still exist in its current form, while 34% expect it will not and 31% don\u2019t know. \u00a0Again, this is a rise compared with the 29% in October 2019 who expected the UK still to exist in ten years\u2019 time, but down from the 45% who said the same in June 2014. \u00a0Over a 20-year horizon, doubters outnumber believers significantly, with 41% stating the UK will not still exist in its current form compared to just 24% who expect it still to exist, while 34% don\u2019t know.\u00a0
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The view from Scotland\u00a0<\/p>\n
Scots remain divided on the constitutional question, with around half of the public saying they would vote Yes in an immediate referendum while half would vote No (48% Yes\/ 52% No in Ipsos\u2019 poll taken 1-4 May). Ipsos data tracking Scottish public sentiment released in June<\/a> shows more public support for the Scottish Government working closely with the Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government than with the Sinn F\u00e9in-led Northern Ireland Executive. Notably, more Scots said they would be unhappy with the Scottish Government working closely with the UK Government at Westminster than would be unhappy about them working closely with either the Welsh Government or Northern Ireland Executive. \u00a0<\/p>\n 43% would be happy about the Scottish Government working closely with the Welsh Government (led by Plaid Cymru), compared to 17% who would be unhappy.\u00a0Similarly, 38% of Scottish adults would be happy about the Scottish Government working closely with the Northern Ireland Executive (led by Sinn F\u00e9in), against 29% who would be unhappy.\u00a0However, sentiment regarding close working between the SNP-led Scottish Government and \u00a0the UK Labour Government at Westminster remained more divided, with 30% of Scots happy with this while 34% would be unhappy.\u00a0<\/p>\n Notes:<\/p>\n