The governing party has remained consistently above Nigel Farage<\/a>\u2019s party for approval since Mr Burnham\u2019s coronation<\/a> in July, when Labour overtook Reform for the first time since March 2025.<\/p>\n The new leadership has also hit the ratings of Zack Polanski<\/a>\u2019s Green Party<\/a>, which has seen a drop in support over the past few months.<\/p>\n The government has said that it does not intend to call an early election. However, Labour sources told The Independent last week<\/a> that the by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is being seen as a test run for the possibility.<\/p>\n Sir Keir announced that he would be leaving parliament earlier this month after resigning as prime minister and Labour<\/a> leader to make way for Mr Burnham.<\/p>\n Mr Polanski has confirmed that he will stand as the Green candidate for the seat next month.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Opposition parties also appear to be preparing for the country to go to the polls early, with Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey having revealed a manifesto working group has already been formed.<\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t normally do it this early,\u201d he told The Guardian.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Reform sources have also suggested Mr Burnham could be convinced to call an early election depending on the outcome of the London by-election.<\/p>\n They told The i that if Labour\u2019s candidate beats Mr Polanski \u201cconvincingly\u201d, he could be dismissed a \u201cdud\u201d and convince Labour that the progressive vote was uniting behind them once again.<\/p>\n A Tory source also told the paper: \u201c[Burnham\u2019s] whole thing is to consolidate the left. If he continues to constrict the Green vote then it will tempt him into an early election whilst the right remains split.\u201d<\/p>\n Under Sir Keir\u2019s leadership, polling showed that Labour began to lose support from left-leaning voters over issues such as Gaza and welfare spending.<\/p>\n This coincided with a boost to the Greens, who recorded a high of around 14 per cent approval in April this year, based on an average of top pollsters, compared to a Labour low of 19 per cent in the same month.<\/p>\n Pollsters have broadly forecast that Labour will win the by-election, having taken nearly 50 per cent of the vote in the seat in 2024.<\/p>\n However, the picture has changed since then. The Greens took three London councils from Labour at the local elections earlier this year, and increased its share of seats in Camden \u2013 home to Holborn and St Pancras \u2013 from one to 11 at the contest, while Labour held overall control.<\/p>\n Will Labour call an early election?<\/p>\n There are clear upsides for Mr Burnham in calling an early election, particularly if Labour holds the seat of Holborn and St Pancras.<\/p>\n The new prime minister has pledged to make sweeping changes<\/a>. However, after he secured the role with just 24,000 votes from the people of Makerfield \u2013\u00a0and ran uncontested to be Labour leader \u2013 his opponents have argued that he does not hold a mandate from the nation to pursue his agenda.<\/p>\n A general election<\/a> victory would inarguably grant this, plus an extra two years to deliver the policies he has begun to set out.<\/p>\n Under present rules, the latest the next general election can take place is in 2029.<\/p>\n Polling suggests that it would also be an inopportune time for two of Labour\u2019s key political opponents \u2013 Reform and the Greens \u2013 given falling support for both parties.<\/p>\n Reform\u2019s approval now sits at its lowest in 20 months, at an average 24 points, and the Greens\u2019 at 10 points, down from 14 in April.<\/p>\n The Conservatives, meanwhile, have begun to plateau at around 20 points, and the Lib Dems at around 11.<\/p>\n However, polling expert Sir John Curtice has poured doubt on Labour optimism in the face of these trends, telling The Independent last week<\/a> that there is still a chance for Reform UK<\/a> to become the biggest party at a nationwide contest.<\/p>\n \u201cThe numbers are just not there,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Labour disastrous local election results \u2013 where it lost 38 councils \u2013 saw it drop support in places where it was previously the strongest party, Sir John explained. This pattern means Reform could \u201cstill do perfectly well in terms of seats\u201d.<\/p>\n Mr Burnham has also been \u201cdying [to become PM] for years\u201d, Sir John added.<\/p>\n \u201cHolding an election now means risking three years to gain two. It\u2019s a bad deal.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":777219,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-777218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=777218"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777218\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/777219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=777218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=777218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=777218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/d2e8cf7cbb01ea1264861e34cad0e25bY29udGVudHNlYXJjaGFwaSwxNzg5NDc5MzIy-2.85730188.jpg\")
A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election (PA Wire)<\/p>\n