{"id":778544,"date":"2026-09-22T05:00:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T05:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/778544\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T05:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T05:00:14","slug":"what-it-takes-to-win-the-montreal-worlds-the-watts-behind-the-favourites-%f0%9f%94%8b-%f0%9f%8c%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/778544\/","title":{"rendered":"What it takes to win the Montr\u00e9al Worlds: The watts behind the favourites \ud83d\udd0b \ud83c\udf08"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Analysing the power from several key performances ahead of the World Championships road race. <\/p>\n

Hi Subscribers, <\/p>\n

Ever since my time at Velonews abruptly ended in 2022, I\u2019ve wanted to work with Zach Nehr again. One of the most analytical and data-driven freelance writers out there, he\u2019s carved out a niche by poring over and interpreting power data, both after races and ahead of major showdowns.<\/p>\n

You\u2019ve probably seen his name on plenty of titles over the last few years, so it\u2019s a huge honour to have him contribute to the Substack. And it\u2019s only possible because of all your amazing support. <\/p>\n

Here, Zach looks at the key favourites for this weekend\u2019s men\u2019s road race, using power data, historical performances, the course profile, and potential race scenarios to assess the contenders for what could be the most hotly contested men\u2019s Worlds in years.<\/p>\n

With Tadej Poga\u010dar out of the picture, the door is wide open for a new world champion. But who has the numbers to win? Paul Seixas, Isaac del Toro, Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock, Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel all bring very different strengths to the Montr\u00e9al course.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t forget: there\u2019s a 20% sale on all annual subscriptions right now, so if you want to read my in-depth, behind-the-scenes coverage through the end of next season, now\u2019s a great time to sign up.<\/p>\n

Daniel \ud83e\udef6<\/p>\n

Get 20% off for 1 year<\/a><\/p>\n

For the first time in three years, someone other than Tadej Poga\u010dar will win the men\u2019s elite title at the UCI Road Race World Championships. After the Slovenian crashed out of the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a, questions arose about the rest of his season. But it wasn\u2019t long before it was announced that Poga\u010dar wouldn\u2019t race in 2026, opening the door for another rider to win the rainbow jersey in Montr\u00e9al.<\/p>\n

Twitter<\/a> \ud83d\udfe2 \u2014 Instagram<\/a> \ud83d\udd34 \u2014 Bluesky<\/a> \ud83d\udd35<\/p>\n

The list of favourites is long and diverse, a testament to the wonderful course design in Canada’s second-largest city. The Worlds is held on a course nearly identical to the city circuits used in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montr\u00e9al. It is an Ardennes-style parcours with hardly a flat metre of road over the entire 13.2-kilometre loop. The circuit\u2019s main feature is the 1.7km climb of the Voie Camillien-Houde, with an average gradient of 7.9%. It isn\u2019t as steep as La Redoute in Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge, but it isn\u2019t as shallow as the Oude Kwaremont, either. That makes it the perfect climb for an all-rounder, someone who can generate massive power for four minutes, not just pure w\/kg.<\/p>\n

The elite men will complete 12 repetitions of the Voie Camillien-Houde, preceded by a flat 100-kilometre run-in. This suggests the early break will likely form on flat roads rather than on the climb, and fatigue will be lower than on a parcours that consists mainly of hilly roads. The closest comparison is Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge, which featured 4,365 metres of elevation gain in this year\u2019s 252-kilometre edition. That is a bit more climbing than the Montr\u00e9al Worlds, which has 3,595 metres of elevation gain over 273 kilometres.<\/p>\n

Crucially, both races feature decisive four-minute climbs in the final hour of racing: Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge has the C\u00f4te de La Redoute and C\u00f4te de Roche aux Faucons, while the Worlds features three reps of the Voie Camillien-Houde in the final 40km alone. When we start thinking about the Worlds road race favourites, we have to look at Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge and the GP de Montr\u00e9al.<\/p>\n

Browse the top 10 finishers in each of these races, and you\u2019ll find riders capable of producing world-class four-minute power after 5+ hours of racing. Names like Isaac del Toro, Paul Seixas, Tom Pidcock, Remco Evenepoel, and Quinn Simmons come to mind. But the list of Worlds favourites runs much deeper.<\/p>\n

The final climb up the Voie Camillien-Houde tops out 9km from the finish of the Worlds road race. From there, riders will fly down Montr\u00e9al\u2019s rolling, twisty roads before the uphill sprint to the line. The course is made for attackers, but not necessarily for lightweight climbers. You need lots of watts to win in Montr\u00e9al, and that\u2019s exactly what we\u2019ll see from riders like Mathieu van der Poel, Wout Van Aert, and Mads Pedersen. These riders are 10-15 kg heavier than del Toro, Seixas, and Evenepoel, but that is not an automatic disadvantage in Montr\u00e9al.<\/p>\n

Take Quinn Simmons, for example. The American weighs about 73kg, but that didn\u2019t stop him from finishing third and fourth in the 2025 and 2026 GP de Montr\u00e9als. Simmons even attacked on the penultimate climb, the Voie Camillien-Houde, in this year\u2019s GP de Montr\u00e9al, pushing 535w (7.4w\/kg) for just under four minutes.<\/p>\n