SpaceX went public with a lot of hype and fanfare. This was reflected in its post-IPO stock price movements, which were rather erratic. However, now that we’re a few months removed from the blockbuster IPO, the stock has settled into a fairly tight trading range around $150 per share — the price at which it opened on its first day of trading. <\/p>\n Still, if you ask some investors (like me), that puts a very high premium on the stock. The reality is that there’s a ton of hoped-for future growth already priced into it, so for it to reach $5 trillion will require a monster growth rate. <\/p>\n First, let’s start with a core question: What valuation should this stock trade at when the company’s profit margins are fully optimized? During SpaceX’s IPO roadshow, it floated a target profit margin of 45%. That’s a bold target, and with SpaceX’s space business unlikely to be fully developed by 2030, expecting the company to achieve it by then is overly optimistic, at best. <\/p>\n So for now, I’m going to base my calculations on the idea that if all goes well, it could hit a profit margin of 35%. As for a valuation, I think pricing SpaceX stock at 35 times earnings would fair assessment, given the significant upside potential it has within a growing space economy.<\/a> <\/p>\n For the company to see a $5 trillion market cap, valued at 35 times earnings, with a 35% profit margin, it would need to book $408 billion in revenue. While we don’t have SpaceX’s actual trailing-12-month total revenue figures, Wall Street analysts estimate SpaceX will produce about $44.5 billion in revenue this year. <\/p>\n So, for SpaceX to get to $408 billion in revenue by 2030, it would require the company to more than 9x its revenue, growing at a 74% compounded annual rate. That’s a very lofty target, but Wall Street analysts estimate SpaceX’s revenue will rise 153% next year. <\/p>\n For SpaceX’s market cap to hit $5 trillion by 2030 — and to have an underlying business that justifies it at that point — is an ambitious idea. However, if SpaceX delivers growth in line with analysts’ estimates for next year and maintains a similarly intense pace in the years that follow, it could do it<\/a>. A big piece of the puzzle will be its profit margin. If that ends up much lower than management has forecast, that would undermine this analysis. <\/p>\n Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? <\/p>\n Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: <\/p>\n The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks<\/a> for investors to buy now\u2026 and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. <\/p>\n Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $365,910!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,418,530!* <\/p>\n Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 930% \u2014 a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. <\/p>\n See the 10 stocks \u00bb<\/a> <\/p>\n *Stock Advisor returns as of October 2, 2026. <\/p>\n Keithen Drury<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/a> Image source: The Motley Fool. A ton of anticipated growth is already priced into SpaceX stock <\/p>\n