{"id":791642,"date":"2026-10-04T11:46:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-04T11:46:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/791642\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T11:46:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T11:46:23","slug":"will-ai-really-kill-most-desk-jobs-within-the-next-12-to-18-months-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/791642\/","title":{"rendered":"Will AI really kill most desk jobs \u2018within the next 12 to 18 months\u2019? \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is not often that someone makes a prediction that strikes you as profoundly incorrect yet also quite useful.<\/p>\n

But so it was when Microsoft\u2019s Mustafa Suleyman said that \u201cwhite-collar work, where you\u2019re sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person \u2013 most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI (artificial intelligence)<\/a> within the next 12 to 18 months\u201d.<\/p>\n

It is not clear whether he meant that AI would actually have swept away all this work in 12 to 18 months, or just that it would be capable of doing so. <\/p>\n

Either way, bold predictions like these reveal an underappreciation of what other people\u2019s jobs actually entail. Tech leaders are particularly susceptible to this error but, to an extent, we all do it, which is why people often say in surveys that AI will probably replace a lot of jobs but not theirs.<\/p>\n

The truth is that most white-collar professional roles do not just involve \u201csitting down at a computer\u201d, from lawyers attending court hearings to project managers going on site visits. Then there are the meetings (internal and external). <\/p>\n

A recent study of Norwegian workers found that meetings consumed an average of 12 per cent of work hours and 14 per cent of company wage bills.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0That\u2019s not your job: AI ushers in a blurring of the lines at workOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

There will be those who say that most meetings are just performative busywork, but if that is the case, it is strange that the most successful companies seem to do more of them. <\/p>\n

The authors of the Norwegian study found that planning, problem solving, information sharing and project co-ordination accounted for most meeting activity, that high-paying and high-revenue firms devoted more resources to meetings, and that meeting frequency and intensity were positively related to worker wage growth. <\/p>\n

They concluded that meetings were like broccoli: \u201cwidely disliked, but probably good for us anyway\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"\"Ireland\u2019s economic outlook ahead of Budget 2027 and agentic AI going rogue<\/p>\n

It is not obvious that AI agents could eliminate the need for this type of work, since it involves persuasion, contestation and the exchange of tacit knowledge and experience that is spread across different departments, and often exists inside people\u2019s heads rather than in a neatly codified handbook on the intranet.<\/p>\n

Indeed, AI\u2019s ability to supercharge some forms of output could generate the need for more co-ordination and decision-making work. I have written before about the case of software development, where those with \u201cglue\u201d skills to co-ordinate AI agents and see the wood for the trees are now in higher demand. <\/p>\n

In the same vein, an analysis by PwC of one billion job adverts from six continents found that employers of AI-exposed entry-level roles were increasingly looking for skills such as management, strategy and teamwork, combined with an increased demand for face-to-face presence.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s hope this does not mean that the future white-collar professional will just sit in back-to-back meetings arguing about what AI has produced. I suspect there will still be a need for human experts to do computer-based work. <\/p>\n

But to the extent that we see ourselves as in competition with AI, then the best strategy is surely to add some value to one\u2019s computer-based work that large language models cannot. We, after all, can step away from our screens, enter the embodied world, form and sustain relationships, and find out information that does not exist on the internet.<\/p>\n

That will require us to unlearn some habits we developed in recent decades in the name of \u201cgetting more done\u201d. The phone call that saved the need to meet. The email that saved the need to call. The Slack message that saved the need to email.<\/p>\n

I am perhaps predisposed to this advice because my own role has always rewarded stepping away from the computer. Since time immemorial, editors have admonished reporters: \u201cIf you\u2019re sitting at your desk all day, you\u2019re not doing your job properly.\u201d But to some extent, the same is true of many professional jobs, and will become more so over time.<\/p>\n

Which brings us back to Suleyman\u2019s prediction. I tend to take a dim view of AI \u201cexposure\u201d scores, but as a personal rule of thumb, \u201cwhat proportion of the day did I spend glued to my computer?\u201d is probably a useful metric to keep an eye on.<\/p>\n

So steer away from employers who conflate \u201cbums on seats\u201d with productivity (especially if they monitor desk occupancy, mouse movements and keystrokes). Swap the Pret sandwich at your laptop for a meal with a contact or colleague. And stop resenting all the meetings you have \u2013 they might just be keeping the robots at bay. \u2013 Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It is not often that someone makes a prediction that strikes you as profoundly incorrect yet also quite…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":791643,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[554,733,4308,86,56,54,55,1908],"class_list":["post-791642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-technology","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom","tag-work"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/791642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=791642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/791642\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/791643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=791642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=791642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=791642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}