Councils are warning of potentially \u201ccatastrophic\u201d debts, which are forecast to reach a record \u00a310bn over the next 18 months, as a result of rapid growth in demand for special educational needs and disability (Send) support in English schools.<\/p>\n
Although the government recently cleared more than \u00a35bn in historic council Send debts, a surge in requests<\/a> has led to authorities predicting they will have re-accrued that debt figure by April, and doubled it by 2028.<\/p>\n The recent acceleration in applications for education, health and care plans (EHCPs), which mandate support for conditions such as speech and learning difficulties, autism or ADHD, is thought to partly reflect a rush by parents and schools to secure support<\/a> before the government\u2019s changes to Send provision take effect.<\/p>\n The prospect of council finances being overwhelmed by schools\u2019 Send spending reflects similar concerns in the NHS and the benefit system over the strain the rising prevalence of mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions has put on public services.<\/p>\n graphic of Send deficit forecast<\/a><\/p>\n The government-commissioned Fonagy report, published last week, found the increase in these conditions was real and a cause of distress<\/a> to many who have them, but the resulting demand for support would be unsustainable<\/a> without introducing new ways to manage the pressure on public services.<\/p>\n The County Councils Network (CCN), which published the forecasts on Tuesday, said the overspending was not the fault of councils and called on ministers to guarantee future Send debts run up by local authorities, some of whom would be otherwise left effectively bankrupt as a result of meeting their legal duties.<\/p>\n Linden Kemkaran, the CCN\u2019s Send spokesperson, said: \u201cThese deficits have not accumulated because councils have chosen to spend recklessly: they are the result of having to meet rapidly growing statutory demand, which has only intensified this year, without funding keeping pace.<\/p>\n \u201cIf councils are left carrying billions of pounds of Send debt, it will not just be a problem for local authorities. Taxpayers and local communities will ultimately bear the consequences as councils face impossible choices about how to protect frontline services while managing debts that have accrued through no fault of their own.<\/p>\n She added: \u201cAs well as councils absorbing skyrocketing costs, children and young people will face increasingly long waits for support and educational outcomes will continue to flatline. New ministers now need to provide certainty that they will deliver the full package of reforms needed to ensure the system works much better for young people, schools and councils.\u201d<\/p>\n The government\u2019s reforms aim to gradually replace the current system in England with a more inclusive approach of Send support<\/a> in mainstream schools that in principle obviates the need for an EHCP. However, parents appear to be rushing to secure formal support now to avoid any future uncertainty.<\/p>\n Without a ministerial guarantee to wipe future overspending, councils say they are at risk of bankruptcy when those accumulated debts \u2013 currently kept off town hall balance sheets under a special \u201coverride\u201d arrangement with the Treasury \u2013 go back on to the books in April 2028 when the override is due to expire.<\/p>\n Ministers have agreed to pay 90% of English top tier councils\u2019 Send debts accumulated to March 2026, but it is unclear how far future Send debts will be covered. Ministers have previously said future debt support would be \u201cappropriate and proportionate\u201d but that it would \u201cnot be unlimited\u201d.<\/p>\n The CCN said anything less than a ministerial commitment to pay down 90% of future Send debt would be a \u201cfinancial catastrophe\u201d for councils \u2013 and some authorities would struggle with solvency even if they retained just 10% of their Send debts.<\/p>\n Publicly available internal reports by local authorities show a number are predicting overspends of more than \u00a3100m in 2026-27 alone. Hampshire county council is forecasting a \u00a3200m deficit for this year. Others include Surrey, East Sussex, Kent, Worcestershire and Norfolk county councils.<\/p>\n The EHCPs are legal documents agreed between local authorities and families in England detailing the support required for children and young people up to the age of 25, allowing access to extra funding or places in special schools.<\/p>\n In January, the number of young people with EHCPs reached 718,000, after a 12.5% increase over the past 12 months. This was the largest year on year increase since the plans were introduced in 2014. An additional 1.3 million young people have identified special needs<\/a>, according to official data<\/a>.<\/p>\n Many councils are anticipating annual double digit increases over the next three years, with several now projecting that at the current rates of increase, nearly one in 10 pupils will have an EHCP by 2029.<\/p>\n The Fonagy report said the growth in EHCPs had \u201csubstantially outpaced the capacity\u201d of the education system to respond. Of the 105,300 statutory assessments carried out in 2024, 94% resulted in the award of an EHCP.<\/p>\n