Bama > Tian\u2019e 165km<\/p>\n
Big win today for Milan Fretin, his first at world tour level, in what was another messy sprint. Kooij\u2019s problems continued and Magnier unclipped during the sprint, but Fretin took a deserved win. Stage 4 is much harder than the first three stages, but the sprinters will still hope to fight for the win.<\/p>\n
Weather<\/p>\n
Max of 30 degrees and a relatively strong tailwind for most of the day.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Key Points<\/p>\n
This is the first categorised climb of the day, 6.4km at 3.6%.<\/p>\n
The next two are 8.6km at 3.3% and 8.2km at 4.8%.<\/p>\n
The last categorised climb is 7.8km at 3.8%.<\/p>\n
The final climb is uncategorised, 1.7km at 5.4%. I don\u2019t have a reliable graphic for this as my Veloviewer isn\u2019t liking this part of the world! The crest comes with 24.4km to go, most of which is downhill.<\/p>\n
Finale<\/p>\n
Tricky section with 900m to go and the finishing straight is headwind.<\/p>\n
Tactics<\/p>\n
164km and 2680m of climbing, this isn\u2019t as straightforward as the opening three sprint stages, but will it still end in a sprint? Decathlon and QuickStep should be the main teams looking to control the stage, but they\u2019ll need to get some help. As Fretin and Biesterbos have won stages this week, I\u2019d expect Cofidis and Picnic to also help out. The problem will be if the puncheur teams get on the front on the climbs and start to drill it, that\u2019s when sprinters and domestiques could end up in trouble.<\/p>\n
The problem for those wanting to upset the sprinters is the placement of the climbs, 1500m of the climbing comes in the opening 80km, leaving just 1180m in the rest of the stage. The final categorised climb doesn\u2019t look that hard, but there are two kickers which will likely see some action. The first of these comes with 38km to go and there\u2019s a bonus sprint which could interest the GC riders but there\u2019s a chance the break is still away. This climb is 1.7km at 5.1% and I\u2019ve already mentioned the final kicker, 1.7km at 5.4%. If you look at different sites, the gradients are not the same, that\u2019s due to measurement issues in this part of the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n
If the bonus seconds are up for grabs, this is a danger point for the sprint teams. The GC riders will go for it, which will create a gap to the peloton, but will they continue after? With 36km to go, they might not bother, but if a strong group of 4 or 5 start working together, it could be a tough chase for the sprint teams. It\u2019s the type of stage which suits Jhonatan Narv\u00e1ez, but UAE don\u2019t have the team to make this a really hard day, most of their squad at this race aren\u2019t the best climbers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
For the sprint teams, making sure the right break escapes it\u2019s vital. There\u2019s a few climbs in the opening phase of the stage, they\u2019ll need to work hard in the opening kilometres to ensure they don\u2019t have to work too hard during the rest of the day. The good news for these teams is the long downhill in the final 24km, a fast-moving peloton will be confident of chasing down any attackers who are still up the road.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Contenders<\/p>\n
Paul Magnier\u00a0\u2013 was unlucky today, but I\u2019m not sure he would have beaten Fretin. Magnier climbs well for a sprinter, he should be confident about surviving the hills in this stage and going for another stage win. The big pressure will be on the shoulders of his teammates, they need to make sure the attackers don\u2019t win, having Cras and Van Wilder is good, they can help on the climbs and hopefully save the sprint train for the final kilometres.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Olav Kooij\u00a0\u2013 another poor showing today, I actually went back and tried to find out what happened to him. It looked like Decathlon were going for a late surge, but the train lost contact with each other. By the time they found each other again, there simply wasn\u2019t enough road left to get Kooij to the front. That\u2019s three days in a row things haven\u2019t gone according to plan; I sense a growing frustration within the team. The climbing in this stage shouldn\u2019t scare Kooij, he\u2019s another who climbs well. A reduced group in the finale will help him, it reduces the chances of a poor position.<\/p>\n
Milan Fretin\u00a0\u2013 great win today, he\u2019ll hope this is another chance. Getting his first world tour win was huge, the pressure is now off his shoulders, but he\u2019ll want more. Fretin is a decent climber, I think he should survive and be in the mix for the sprint.<\/p>\n
Max Kanter\u00a0\u2013 probably not as good a climber as the three already mentioned, but he\u2019s not as bad as some think. Today wasn\u2019t great, he finished 20th\u00a0and got a yellow card, now he\u2019s got to watch himself during the rest of the race.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Frits Biesterbos\u00a0\u2013 he\u2019s flying just now, hopefully he can survive the climbs and go for another win, it would certainly help my fantasy team!<\/p>\n
Jordi Meeus\u00a0\u2013 3rd\u00a0today, he continues to improve. He\u2019s a bit heavier than the other sprinters but can cope with short climbs.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Luke Lamperti\u00a0\u2013 it\u2019s not clicked yet for EF, this will be their best chance yet. A smaller group will be good news, it increases the chances of their short lead out getting it right.<\/p>\n
Jhonatan Narv\u00e1ez\u00a0\u2013 how small does the group have to be for him to win the sprint? I\u2019d say around 20 riders and I just don\u2019t see this stage being that selective.<\/p>\n
Prediction Time<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all to do with the profile you are looking at. La Flamme Rouge have the final kicker as 1.7km at 8.5%, I\u2019m seeing 1.7km at 5.4%. They have the final 2km of the last categorised climb as 2km at 7%, I have 2.4km at 5.8%. If the figures I have are right, I see a sprint finish, but who\u2019ll take the win? I\u2019m going Olav Kooij.<\/p>\n
Betting Corner\u00a0<\/p>\n
Apologies folks, I had a sneaky bet before telling you. The market opened with Narv\u00e1ez as the 4\/1 favourite, Magnier 5\/1 and Kooij at 14\/1. After losing on in him in the first two stages, I couldn\u2019t resist another bet on Kooij. The bookies had clearly priced it off the PCS profile, they use La Flamme Rouge, hence making Narv\u00e1ez the favourite. The market has now settled, but it now looks impossible to take both Magnier and Kooij, which was my initial plan. I can\u2019t help being attracted by Kooij, even though he\u2019s now only 6\/1.<\/p>\n
2027 Previews<\/p>\n
The early bird offer to sign up for \u00a360 ends on Sunday, it then moves to the normal price of \u00a380. Sign up using the below link.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bama > Tian\u2019e 165km Big win today for Milan Fretin, his first at world tour level, in what…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":804306,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[4985,101,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-804305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-cycling","tag-cycling","tag-sports","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/804305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=804305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/804305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/804306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=804305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=804305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=804305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}