{"id":805274,"date":"2026-10-17T06:04:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-17T06:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/805274\/"},"modified":"2026-10-17T06:04:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-17T06:04:30","slug":"the-importance-of-the-third-forward-spot-in-fpl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/805274\/","title":{"rendered":"The importance of the third forward spot in FPL"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tom Hadley \u2013\u00a0a one-time world number one in Fantasy Premier League (FPL)\u00a0<\/a>\u2013 is one of our regular contributors who has returned for 2026\/27.<\/p>\n

He\u2019ll again be providing data-driven articles regularly this season, usually around defensive contribution DefCon) points.<\/p>\n

In this piece, his focus is on the third forward spot.<\/p>\n

It is quite evident that defenders and midfielders have an abundance of value in every price bracket this season, and whilst Erling Haaland (\u00a315.6m) and Joao Pedro (\u00a37.8m) exist, why would you ever need a third forward? <\/p>\n

But I\u2019m here to dive into why forwards offer a unique type of value that is very much worth considering with the game in its current state.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Firstly, let\u2019s look at the top-scoring assets from last season (all the forwards have a ticked box)\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

and the current highest-scoring players this season\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s clear that over the course of the season, the defenders and midfielders will comfortably dominate the scoring charts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Picking any forward that isn\u2019t called Haaland or Pedro and playing them every week will likely not work out particularly well. But if you look at the number of blanks across the positions, the numbers are fairly consistent throughout. So it\u2019s not a case that forwards aren\u2019t reliable, it\u2019s more that the fluctuation of points that are more volatile.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Forwards will get a lot of two-pointers mixed in with hauls and single returns, whereas defenders will get a lot of varying point outcomes (often around 3-4 points), which will add up predictably higher across a whole year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s pretty clear that forwards who aren\u2019t Haaland or Pedro likely have more volatile points outcomes and fewer points across the season, but this doesn\u2019t necessarily mean they are not a significantly useful source of points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

ROTATING FORWARDS<\/p>\n

\"Scouting<\/p>\n

The key is to rotate the third forward spot in a way that not only targets the good fixtures, but complements the options in your squad. <\/p>\n

There is, of course, a lot of apprehension towards having a rotation plan in FPL, as points often come in an unpredictable manner. Whilst this appears to be true, there\u2019s reason to suggest that over the course of the season this will prove worthwhile. Not only that, but increasing the number of nailed-on options available to you also provides coverage for injuries.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look into the \u2018best fixtures on paper\u2019 so far this season and how forwards have fared compared to defensive assets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The fixtures I\u2019ve taken for the sample are:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fulham (home and away)<\/p>\n

Ipswich (home and away)<\/p>\n

Coventry (home and away)<\/p>\n

Hull (home and away)<\/p>\n

Crystal Palace (home and away)<\/p>\n

Newcastle (home only)<\/p>\n

Sunderland (home only)<\/p>\n

.. and the average points per position against these teams:<\/p>\n

Left-back: 4.5 points per game<\/p>\n

Centre-back: 3.8 points per game<\/p>\n

Right-back: 4.1 pts per game<\/p>\n

Forward: 5.8 pts per game<\/p>\n

As you can see, forwards so far have a significantly higher average points across these particular fixtures. Not only that, but centre-backs also have the lowest average points amongst the given positions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

51% of strikers have scored 6+ points across these matches, emphasising a fairly reliable spread against the weaker teams and not just hauls from Haaland and Pedro that skew the data.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s worth mentioning that we\u2019re taking a six-week period. It\u2019s a small sample size. I\u2019m not saying that you should suddenly start to bench your centre-back in the easier matches, of course. You will play them in those fixtures.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The point here is that when you\u2019re planning a rotation for easier matches, having a forward to come in could actually prove to be the most rewarding. The logic is there too: you\u2019d expect teams to create more chances in more favourable fixtures, and the correlation will almost always mean that the forward yields a higher expected goals (xG) in the process.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Just take Thierno Barry (\u00a35.7m), for example. He might miss a lot of chances, but so far his three goals have come in three fixtures from the above list. Eventually, the high xG accumulation will pay off, and it\u2019s these types of fixtures that are most likely to do so.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There are also a lot of talismanic forward options for a budget price. Barry and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (\u00a36.0m) are my particular favourites, as they are both 90-minute men, on penalties and have a huge share of the team\u2019s total xG involvement. Nicolas Jackson at \u00a36.6m is another example of a brilliant budget option, in great form, with great fixtures to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n

CALVERT-LEWIN APPEAL<\/p>\n

Calvert-Lewin just edges it for me ahead of all the options. Leeds have started the season brilliantly and have no other competitions to contend with.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Leeds are also superb at home, and he has a run of incredible home games from Gameweek 10 onwards, with a playable fixture every other week. For rotation purposes, he rotates excellently with Spurs and could be ideal to have alongside the likes of Jan Paul van Hecke (\u00a34.9m) or Savinho (\u00a36.5m).\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The common argument is, why would you spend \u00a36m on Calvert-Lewin when you can get James Tarkowski for \u00a36.2m?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think the question should be that you have Calvert-Lewin instead of Tarkowski; it\u2019s that you should actually try to get him as well as Tarkowski!<\/p>\n

It seems to be only Haaland who takes the bulk of the budget at the minute, so it\u2019s more than manageable to spread the funds right throughout the squad in this manner and bench \u00a36m assets. I think we are past the era of having dead spots on the bench personally. Bench points will happen, but they\u2019re also fine; it\u2019s great to have those options at your disposal, and the value across every position is simply worth having in the current game state (in my opinion)!\u00a0<\/p>\n

Whilst it is possible to roll to five free transfers, having a deep squad is only an advantageous play. It allows for more patience, provides coverage for injuries and suspensions, whilst in general offering a reliable minutes option that you can count on any given week if need be.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With someone like Calvert-Lewin or Barry, you could very easily just stick with them and not touch that spot unless they pick up an injury. They\u2019re both great holds all the way through to Christmas and you know that they\u2019re always going to play.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tom Hadley \u2013\u00a0a one-time world number one in Fantasy Premier League (FPL)\u00a0\u2013 is one of our regular contributors…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":805275,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[264346,264347,218,101,264348,237939,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-805274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-football","tag-best-forwards-fpl","tag-best-third-forward","tag-football","tag-sports","tag-third-forward","tag-tom-hadley","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/805274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=805274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/805274\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/805275"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=805274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=805274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=805274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}