It can be caused by a multitude of factors, including geographic features such as mountains \u2013 the top 10 most turbulent routes<\/a> are all over either the Andes or the Himalayas. Some forms, such as the type caused by mountains<\/a> and wake turbulence, which is caused by other aircraft, are fairly well understood and avoided. Pilots have always had to contend with the sky\u2019s speed bumps as part of the job.<\/p>\n double quotation markThere\u2019s more energy in a typical thunderstorm than there is in a nuclear weaponRichard Woodward, former RAAF and Qantas pilot<\/p>\n But the threat of turbulence across the world is increasing due to the climate crisis. Not only will pilots need to contend with the frequency and severity of these episodes rising, they\u2019re facing a future that includes a large surge in clear-air turbulence \u2013 an invisible, largely undetectable turbulence that comes, quite literally, out of the blue.<\/p>\n Flying over the top of a cyclone<\/p>\n Richard Woodward is a former Royal Australian Air Force test pilot and Qantas<\/a> A380 captain who served the airline for 32 years. He has flown routes all around the world and has seen more than his fair share of difficult conditions, including flying over a cyclone (it was surprisingly smooth and the radar \u201cpainted it beautifully\u201d).<\/p>\n But Woodward says airlines and the aviation industry are increasingly aware of the threat posed by global heating.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019ll be an increase in the severity of thunderstorms and storms in general because, as the planet warms, the amount of energy inputting into these events will become massively greater,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Thunderstorm or convective turbulence \u2013 the cause of the SQ321 incident \u2013 creates strong updrafts, then strong downdrafts as the air and water vapour cool. It may be encountered several thousand feet above clouds and as far as 20 miles (more than 30km) on either side. This can be particularly dangerous, Woodward says, given that \u201cthere\u2019s more energy in a typical thunderstorm than there is in a nuclear weapon\u201d.<\/p>\n That massive amount of energy can be seen in lightning \u2013 which sometimes even reaches into space, Woodward says \u2013 but it also manifests in turbulence. More heat, and greater differences between hot and cold areas, will supercharge already powerful thunderstorms.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a problem that pilots and passengers have encountered in Australia. In the same month as the SQ321 episode, a Qantas Boeing 737 encountered severe turbulence<\/a> while on approach to Brisbane airport after entering a storm cloud at 11,400ft. Three cabin crew, who were not seated at the time, were injured; one was left with a broken ankle. Another crew member with an undiagnosed concussion returned to work on several subsequent flights without medical attention. The Australian Transport Safety Board report was highly critical of the airline\u2019s response, saying the crew member \u201creturning to work with an undiagnosed concussion likely compromised [their] ability to perform safety-critical tasks\u201d. Qantas has since overhauled its safety protocols for crew injuries.<\/p>\n \u201cIn eastern Australia in a typical warm season we get lots of thunderstorms \u2013 warm air below, cooler air above, gives you the instability,\u201d says Dr Milton Speer, a forecasting meteorologist and a fellow in the school of mathematical and physical sciences at the University of Technology Sydney. He has conducted research that found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly resulting in stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts that can be hard to predict.<\/p>\n Brisbane to Sydney consistently ranks as the most turbulent route in Australia due to these fast-developing and dynamic storm systems.<\/p>\n \u2018The fuel of thunderstorms\u2019<\/p>\n The physical science behind the rise in atmospheric turbulence from global heating is both simple and incredibly complex.<\/p>\n \u201cThe science is pretty clear on this: for every degree of warming, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapour,\u201d says Todd Lane, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Melbourne. \u201cAnd water vapour is the fuel of thunderstorms.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n There\u2019s also a strong relationship between the severity of the thunderstorm and the amount of turbulence inside. \u201cSo if we have more severe thunderstorms, we expect more turbulence within them,\u201d he says. \u201cAnd also that leads to more turbulence around the storms as well.\u201d<\/p>\n Most onboard injuries caused by turbulence<\/a> are linked to thunderstorms but storms and bad weather are at least to some extent visible via radar and can be forecast.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not true for invisible turbulence. Clear-air turbulence is usually found in the upper atmosphere, at cruising altitude, often at the edges of jet streams. While it can be modelled or reported by other aircraft, it can\u2019t be detected in advance using radar.<\/p>\n An analysis by scientists at the University of Reading<\/a> of four decades of atmospheric data collected between 1979 and 2020 found that severe clear-air turbulence increased by 55% and moderate and light turbulence had increased 37% and 17% over the same period.<\/p>\n Clear-air turbulence will increase even under the most optimistic scenarios of global heating \u2013 a 1.5C increase above preindustrial levels will lead to a 27% increase<\/a>; with a 2.75C increase in global temperatures that figure jumps to 56%.<\/p>\n Lane, who has worked on problems associated with clear-air turbulence for 25 years, calls it a \u201cparticular hazard for commercial aircraft\u201d and says it occurs when there\u2019s an increase in wind shear \u2013 a change in wind speed or direction over a relatively short distance, often at the edge of jet streams, the fast-moving air currents that flow around the Earth.<\/p>\n With global heating, changes in temperature differences between the equator and the poles can intensify the wind shear from jet streams, Lane says.<\/p>\n In 2017 Ignacio Gallego-Marcos was sitting on a plane on the tarmac awaiting takeoff for a flight from Madrid to Stockholm. It was a calm day but the engineer searched for a forecast out of curiosity and realised there was nothing available for the public. It prompted Gallego-Marcos \u2013 who has a PhD in fluid dynamics, the study of how liquids (or gases) move and respond to physical forces \u2013 to build turbli.com<\/a>, a publicly accessible turbulence forecasting site.\n <\/p>\n Anyone can use Turbli to get a read on an upcoming flight. Aviation enthusiasts are among the 300,000 monthly users of the site, alongside nervous flyers. <\/p>\n Gallego-Marcos says turbulence is, to some extent, predictable. And even though global heating may increase its frequency and severity, some types are easier to model than others.<\/p>\n \u201cClear air turbulence can be very easily predicted when it comes to the jet stream, which are very large flowing masses, so the resolution of the current forecasts can predict them,\u201d Gallego-Marcos says. \u201cBut clear turbulence is also found in the vicinity of thunderstorm clouds and there it becomes difficult to predict because a thunderstorm is very small \u2013 it has a lot of features that you cannot predict in weather models.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018The ones you\u2019re going to drive into the ceiling\u2019<\/p>\n Stuart Fox, IATA\u2019s director of flight and technical operations, says the traditional approach of pilots relying on reports from other pilots and weather advisories to help avoid turbulence has some limitations given \u201cinformation may not be available at the right time and can vary in quality\u201d.<\/p>\n In 2018 IATA began collecting turbulence observations from about 30 airlines running more than 3,700 aircraft and sharing them with participating airlines, which include United Airlines, Qatar, Etihad, ANA and Lufthansa.<\/p>\n The project uses onboard sensors to record turbulence information and share that instantaneously. The data, modelled using AI tools, is now providing near-time predictions of turbulence.<\/p>\n double quotation markStructurally, the aircraft are built to withstand far more than they would ever be expected to encounter Steve Lieb, aviation lecturer<\/p>\n![\"\u2018Going](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1792290609_514_1920.jpg\")
\u2018Going completely horizontal\u2019: passengers on Singapore Airlines flight hit by turbulence \u2013 video<\/p>\n![\"Passengers](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1792290610_304_1920.jpg\")
Passengers carried off Singapore Airlines plane after severe turbulence \u2013 video report<\/p>\n