{"id":806718,"date":"2026-10-18T16:02:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T16:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/806718\/"},"modified":"2026-10-18T16:02:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T16:02:24","slug":"scientists-say-doomsday-glacier-melting-aggressively","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/806718\/","title":{"rendered":"Scientists say Doomsday Glacier melting \u2018aggressively\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n The planet\u2019s widest glacier<\/a> is melting \u201cmore aggressively\u201d than previously projected, meaning its impacts on global sea level rise could be double current estimates, according to new research<\/a> by a team of glaciologists.\n <\/p>\n

\n Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica \u2014 nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier because of the catastrophe<\/a> its collapse would trigger \u2014 is a huge wildcard when it comes to forecasting global sea level rise.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Florida-sized glacier, which lies in one of the least accessible places on Earth, has been retreating for decades and its melting ice currently contributes around 4%<\/a> to global sea level rise.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the mechanisms behind its retreat are exceptionally complex, making it tricky to precisely map out its future.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s a vital task, however, as Thwaites holds enough water to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet<\/a> if it were to collapse. Because it also acts as a cork holding back the vast Antarctic ice sheet, it could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise, devastating coastal communities from Miami to Manila.\n <\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\n Glaciologists from the University of California, Irvine and NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have developed a new ice sheet model they say better reflects what\u2019s happening underneath this ice giant.\n <\/p>\n

\n Thwaites\u2019 rapid retreat<\/a> is driven by processes at its \u201cgrounding line\u201d \u2014 the point at which the ice rises up from the seabed and starts to float on the ocean as an ice shelf.\n <\/p>\n

\n But while typical ice sheet models have tended to view the grounding line as something fixed and mostly stable, \u201cwe have come to acknowledge a different arrangement beneath Earth\u2019s major ocean-terminating glaciers,\u201d said the report\u2019s lead author Mattia Poinelli, a project scientist at UCLA who was an Earth system science researcher at UC Irvine at the time of the study.\n <\/p>\n

\u26c5 Get CNN Weather in your inbox<\/p>\n

The forecast is just the beginning. We\u2019ll\u202fsend you expert coverage and the stories behind the weather \u2014 so you always know more than just the number. Sign up for the newsletter<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Satellite data reveals the grounding line is actually a \u201cgrounding zone,\u201d sometimes miles wide, where seawater constantly flushes in and out with the tides, lifting and lowering the thick ice in a process known as \u201ctidal pumping.\u201d This allows relatively warm ocean water to penetrate \u201cdeep underneath the ice sheets and causing vigorous melting,\u201d Poinelli said.\n <\/p>\n

\n When the scientists adjusted models to include the concept of a grounding zone, they found Thwaites could contribute up to 1.2 inches of sea level rise by 2100 \u2014 twice previous estimates \u2014 even without further global warming, according to the findings<\/a> published Monday in the journal Nature Communications.\n <\/p>\n

\n The land on which Thwaites sits slopes downward, meaning as the glacier melts, more ice is exposed to warm ocean water. The topography is complicated, however, by two key underwater ridges, which \u201cpin\u201d the ice, holding it back from flowing into the ocean more rapidly.\n <\/p>\n

\n The melting processes at Thwaites\u2019 grounding zone are accelerating the \u201cunpinning\u201d of ice from a large ridge called the Mouginot Ridge, the study found. There is a 60% chance that it will be unpinned by the end of the century, the study found, after which the glacier is likely to retreat quickly down the sloping bedrock toward the next major ridge.\n <\/p>\n

\n The findings suggest the impacts of losing Thwaites might have been underestimated. A sea level rise of 1.2 inches may not sound much but it\u2019s enough to greatly magnify dangers to coastal populations.\n <\/p>\n

\n The results \u201cpredict greater risk of and exposure for coastal flooding than anticipated in the coming decades,\u201d said Eric Rignot, a report author and professor of Earth system science at UC Irvine.\n <\/p>\n

\"An<\/p>\n

\n Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist for the Earth Science and Observation Center at the University of Colorado Boulder, who was not involved in the research, said the findings could be \u201ca real gamechanger for sea level forecasting from Thwaites.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n But he and other experts caution that more research is needed to understand the impacts of different grounding zone melting processes, not least by getting direct data from underneath the glacier.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe reality is that there is a lot we still need to find out about grounding zone processes to be able to make confident predictions about how fast ice will be lost,\u201d said Robert Larter, a marine geophysicist at British Antarctic Survey, who was also not involved in the study. The environment beneath Thwaites, which is very difficult to access, is even more complex than the paper describes, he added.\n <\/p>\n

\n Getting observational data from Thwaites\u2019 grounding line is the next step, Rignot said. The scientists are planning to travel there in 2028 to deploy instruments able to document the flushing in and out of seawater.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWe have been aware of the impacts of climate change on our planet\u2019s sensitive ice sheets for decades,\u201d Rignot said, \u201cbut a mounting realization gained in recent years of what is really happening on the undersides of glaciers like Thwaites is leading to an even greater sense of alarm.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n He said the world must cut planet-heating pollution now to limit the impacts but warned, \u201ceven if we do, we can expect higher sea levels in the future resulting from the damage that has already been done.\u201d\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The planet\u2019s widest glacier is melting \u201cmore aggressively\u201d than previously projected, meaning its impacts on global sea level…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":806719,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[59,90,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-806718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-science","tag-gb","tag-science","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/806718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=806718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/806718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/806719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=806718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=806718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=806718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}