{"id":813078,"date":"2026-10-25T04:00:28","date_gmt":"2026-10-25T04:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/813078\/"},"modified":"2026-10-25T04:00:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T04:00:28","slug":"can-millions-of-people-live-on-the-moon-these-scientists-say-yes-but-not-for-very-long","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/813078\/","title":{"rendered":"Can millions of people live on the moon? These scientists say yes \u2014 but not for very long"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">Humans have long dreamed about reaching out and exploring space. Most science fiction, more often than not, portrays cities on the dusty lunar surface and Mars.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">And if you listen to some billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, cities on the moon are coming soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">In fact, in February, SpaceX CEO <a class=\"link-_o8iA html-anchor\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/elonmusk\/status\/2020640004628742577?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Musk posted on social media<\/a> that the company was shifting its focus away from settling on Mars \u2014 something Musk has been passionate about for the past decade.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">\u201cFor those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<p>For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. <\/p>\n<p>The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars. <\/p>\n<p>It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.<\/p>\n<p>That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/elonmusk\/status\/2020640004628742577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">elonmusk<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">This statement \u2014 and those of Blue Origin CEO Bezos, who has claimed<a class=\"link-_o8iA html-anchor\" href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/article\/amazon-founder-jeff-bezos-says-millions-of-people-will-be-living-in-space-by-2045-and-robots-will-commute-on-our-behalf-to-the-moon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"> \u201cmillions of people\u201d will be living in space by 2045<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 intrigued Martin Elvis, senior astrophysicist at Harvard University\u2019s Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">He, along with astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, honorary professor at the Durham University Space Research Centre in England, decided to take a look at the numbers. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">But their findings, it turns out, aren&#8217;t great for a lunar civilization, so don\u2019t start packing just yet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">In <a class=\"link-_o8iA html-anchor\" href=\"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/journals\/space-technologies\/articles\/10.3389\/frspt.2026.1894104\/full\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">their paper<\/a>, published in the journal Frontiers in Space Technologies, the pair decided to examine power and water needed to sustain humans on the moon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">When it comes to power, they found that solar and nuclear would be enough to sustain one million people on the lunar surface.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">But then there&#8217;s water. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">It may be surprising to some, but there is water on the moon. It\u2019s believed that most of it is contained in permanently shadowed regions (PSR), areas at the poles that never see sunlight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">But in this study, they found that there\u2019s not enough on the moon to sustain a large human presence on the lunar surface.<\/p>\n<p>WATCH | NASA shares plans for Moon Base:<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1792900827_650_default.jpg\"  alt=\"\" class=\"thumbnail\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"video-item-title\">NASA shares plans for moon base<\/p>\n<p>NASA has outlined its plans to build a base on the moon that will first be occupied by rovers and drones, but the longer-term goal is human habitation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">\u201cOur work shows that, yeah, if you want to have an Antarctic base on the moon for the next few hundred years, no problem. If you want to have a small town, that&#8217;s doable. If you want to cover the face of the moon with cities, like in the best science fiction, then you have to find a way to get the water there, because it&#8217;s not there right now,\u201d McDowell said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">Assuming that there is roughly one billion tonnes of water on the moon, which is in line with current estimates, they found that a civilization of one million people would only be able to live on the moon for roughly 100 years. And that\u2019s only if we can recycle 98 per cent of the water, which is what is done on the International Space Station.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8216;A small lake&#8217;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">Elvis said that while one billion tonnes of water sounds like a lot, you have to put it in perspective.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">\u201cIf you had a huge aquarium the size of Central Park in Manhattan, you could fill it up to where the Statue of Liberty was just underwater and that&#8217;s the amount of water you&#8217;ve got. So it&#8217;s huge in one way, but \u2026 it&#8217;s a small lake. And a small lake is not going to supply a big city for very long.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">That\u2019s not to say that humans can\u2019t ever live on the moon. If it were a town of 10,000, they found that would be sustainable for centuries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">However, that&#8217;s assuming that the one billion tonnes of water is an accurate estimate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">&#8220;Very likely a billion is way overestimating. It&#8217;s probably 20 or 30 times too big,&#8221; Elvis said.<\/p>\n<p>WATCH | How Artemis II is setting up the next stage of space exploration:<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1792900828_533_default.jpg\"  alt=\"\" class=\"thumbnail\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"video-item-title\">How Artemis II is setting up the next stage of space exploration<\/p>\n<p>Jacob Bleacher, NASA&#8217;s chief exploration scientist, says the first two Artemis missions have set the stage for the next moon landing, a moon base and eventually, human exploration of Mars, missions so challenging that only international co-operation makes them possible. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">He also said that it&#8217;s unlikely that we&#8217;d be able to recover all the water that&#8217;s available. Instead, it would be more like one-third to half of what is present.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">&#8220;So my best guess is the real amount of water available that we can be fairly confident about is one per cent of what we said before. So instead of 100 years, it&#8217;s one year.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">And there&#8217;s one other thing: We don&#8217;t know in what form that water exists. And we need to figure that out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">&#8220;It&#8217;s one thing to detect it from satellites, but &#8230; there are uncertainties in those measurements,&#8221; said Gordon Osinski, a professor in planetary geology at Western University in London, Ont.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">&#8220;I think it is there, but let&#8217;s go and ground-truth that and confirm it. And then there&#8217;s the bigger unknowns of what form it&#8217;s in\u2026. Is it more like the permafrost up in the Arctic, where it&#8217;s basically soil with, you know, sub-millimetre size ice crystals, which are hard to get out of?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">While this may sound like pessimistic news for humanity&#8217;s plans to explore the cosmos, McDowell said it&#8217;s best to know what you&#8217;re dealing with.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-b3GxD html-paragraph\">&#8220;The truth is never negative,&#8221; he said. &#8220;What&#8217;s negative is to actually go and try and do something that isn&#8217;t going to work.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Humans have long dreamed about reaching out and exploring space. Most science fiction, more often than not, portrays&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":813079,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[90,416,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-813078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-space","tag-science","tag-space","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/813078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=813078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/813078\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/813079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=813078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=813078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=813078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}