Favourable dairy economics have encouraged year-on-year growth in deliveries since September. The\u00a0milk to feed price ratio<\/a>\u00a0(MFPR) remains firmly in the expansion zone.<\/p>\n The latest data from\u00a0Promar Milkminder dairy costings<\/a>\u00a0(May) show that concentrate feed costs had fallen by 5.3% versus levels a year ago. Over the same period, it was recorded that concentrate feed usage increased by 6.1%. This may be due in part to challenging weather conditions for some farmers pressuring forage demand, but also a reflection of a strong MFPR incentivising greater feed use to boost milk yields. As an early harvest is well underway, farmers will be keeping an eye on progress and what that might mean for feed prices and availability come winter.\u00a0<\/p>\n July was the UK’s fifth warmest on record, according to provisional figures from the\u00a0Met Office<\/a>. Grass-growth has been regionally divided depending on rainfall but is a concern for many. Data collected by\u00a0AHDB Forage for Knowledge<\/a>\u00a0showed total recorded grass growth in July was well below the long term average. As the season progresses fears grow in some places for availability of winter forage.\u00a0<\/p>\n Despite this, the latest BCMS data shows that births to dairy dams in Q2 2025<\/a> increased year-on-year by 3.6% to total 309,000 head, the highest number recorded for this period since 2019.<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Global<\/p>\n The latest global production data<\/a> shows global milk flows now picking up.\u00a0 Global milk deliveries averaged 830.5 million litres per day in May, an increase of 9.6 million litres per day (+1.2%) across the selected regions, compared to the same period last year. All regions recorded year-on-year volume increases except for Australia and the EU.<\/p>\n US production was up 1.6% year-on-year, with a bigger herd and better margins. New Zealand deliveries were up by a substantial 2.2 million litres per day (7.6%) supported by better milk prices. Argentina\u2019s production also increased in May, up 3.6 million litres per day (14.1%) year-on-year.<\/p>\n Milk deliveries in the EU averaged 420.4 million litres per day in May, a small decline of 2.3 million litres per day (-0.5%) with year-on-year decline from Italy, down by 62 million litres (-5.4%), Germany, down 49 million litres (-1.8%), year-on-year but Irish milk production up by 76 million litres (6.8%)<\/a>.\u00a0 The short term outlook for the EU<\/a> is for relative stability at 0.15% growth for 2025 year-on year.<\/p>\n Australia also declined (-3.8%) due to challenging weather conditions.<\/p>\n Longer term, we published the outlook to 2030 for dairy milk supplies globally<\/a>.\u00a0 This points to high regionality \u2013 global milk production is forecast to grow but driven by developing markets.\u00a0 Will this growth be sufficient to meet burgeoning global demand?\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n Wholesale markets: July<\/p>\n As the summer holiday period kicks in across the UK and Europe, market activity was universally noted to be quiet<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Bulk cream\u00a0rose by \u00a3120\/t although saw some easing through the month starting at \u00a32.80\/kg to around \u00a32.70\/kg. Hot sunny weather and a bumper strawberry crop coinciding with the Wimbledon Tennis Championship helped boost demand for cream.\u00a0<\/p>\n Butter\u00a0prices were relatively stable month on month, easing by just \u00a310\/t, and remaining within a tight range. Prices in Europe are recorded to be declining, putting some pressure onto UK butter as it now trades at a premium. Trading is being done on a hand to mouth basis with some stock balance still tight.<\/p>\n SMP\u00a0remained stable, average prices eased just \u00a310, back to where they sat in May. Demand was very quiet in line with the time of year. Some stock is starting to build with production gaining from higher milk solids.<\/p>\n Mild cheddar\u00a0also saw little change month on month, with the average price easing by just \u00a310\/t. Demand was seasonally quiet with little volume traded.<\/p>\n This took AMPE down slightly to 42.5ppl whilst MCVE also reduiced slightly to 42.1ppl.\u00a0 Both remain up year-on-year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Farmgate milk prices\u00a0<\/p>\n The Fair Dealing Obligations Milk (FDOM) regulations<\/a> came into force on 9th July and all milk contracts must be compliant by this date.\u00a0 The\u00a0Agriculture Supply Chain Adjudicator (ASCA)<\/a>\u00a0are the body which has been set up to police the new milk purchase contract rules and have set up a mailbox to raise concerns about milk contracts.<\/p>\n Contact ASCA:\u00a0asca@defra.gov.uk<\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The\u00a0latest published farmgate price<\/a>\u00a0was for June with a UK average milk price announced by Defra as being 43.55, up 0.36 pence on the previous month.\u00a0<\/p>\n Latest announced\u00a0farmgate prices<\/a>\u00a0were fairly steady for August.<\/p>\n Price announcements stabilised for\u00a0retail aligned liquid contracts\u00a0by most of the producers. Sainsbury\u2019s saw a decline of 0.13ppl following two months of increases, while M&S have held on to their price for the last four months. Co-op Dairy Group increased their price by 0.01ppl and Tesco have held their price for the last three months.<\/p>\n Non-aligned liquid contracts\u00a0were also stable overall month-on-month. Crediton Dairy has held steady for the last eight months after continuous increases over the previous year. No changes have been reported for Muller since December last year. Paynes Dairies, Freshways and Yew Tree announced no change to their milk price this month. Pembrokeshire Creamery announced a price decline of 0.04ppl.<\/p>\n Cheese contracts\u00a0showed stability as all participants on the league table made no change to their price in August (Barbers, First Milk, Saputo, Leprino, Lactalis, Wyke, Wensleydale, Belton Cheese and South Caernarfon Creameries).<\/p>\n Similarly to cheese,\u00a0manufacturing contracts\u00a0also remained stable. Pattemores Dairy has held on to their price for the last nine months. UK Arla and Meadow also announced no changes.<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0 Trade<\/p>\n Total export volumes of dairy products from the UK for Q2 2025 increased 9.8% year-on-year at 370,400 tonnes fuelled by cheese, milk and cream, powders, whey and whey products.\u00a0 Total UK dairy export value for Q2 2025 edged up 20.5% year-on-year at \u00a3588mn.\u00a0<\/p>\n Total import volumes increased by 11,800t (3.5%) at 349,400t in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year. The increase was reported from EU nations (12,700t), who are our major providers. Major EU nations contributing to the UK\u2019s increase in imports are Greece (+6,600t), Ireland (+4600t), France (+1900t), Poland (+1800t), Austria (+900t) and Spain (+700t). Increase in imports was capped by decline from Germany and Netherlands. Imports declined from non-EU nations during the period by a marginal 900t. Imports from New Zealand declined year-on-year after seeing a remarkable increase during the last one year. Cheese and curd imports declined by 4,700t at 1,700t in Q2 2025 year-on-year.<\/p>\n Imports of yoghurt saw the biggest increase of 7,300t (9.6%), followed by powders by 2,200t (10.4%). Cheese and curd and milk and cream imports nudged up by 1,700t (1.4%) and 400t (0.5%) respectively. The latest dairy retail data echoes increasing consumer demand for yoghurt, cheese and cream in the domestic market. Whey and whey products in the import basket, witnessed a marginal decline of 500t (-2.4%) during the period compared to year ago levels.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Retail performance<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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