The McLaren drivers have collided once, and come close to crashing twice more, but for now at least, they remain good friends. Yet the orange team\u2019s success has stifled the hope that 2025 would be a campaign for the ages, with many squads in the title hunt. McLaren can even seal a second successive constructors\u2019 crown as early as Baku in late September.<\/p>\n
Behind, there has been midfield magic and misery galore, with Lewis Hamilton\u2019s Ferrari switch turning from dream to distress. And there are the highs and lows of a bumper rookie crop, too.<\/p>\n
After all that, we\u2019re reviewing our predictions made ahead of the season<\/a>. In a shocking twist, most missed the mark. Our panel have therefore been granted two mulligans as they reassess this summer, as well as the traditional double-down, when thinking ahead to the season run-in.<\/p>\n Measure these against your own expectations for 2025, while I get to bask in the smug glow that only joining The Athletic in April means I can be 100 percent not wrong in all this, until we come to predict next season, anyway.<\/p>\n Alex Kalinauckas<\/p>\n Panel: Michael Bailey, Madeline Coleman, Luke Smith and Patrick Iversen<\/p>\n Constructors\u2019 podium Where things stand: McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes<\/p>\n Drivers\u2019 podium Where things stand: Piastri, Norris, Verstappen<\/p>\n Coleman: I weighed up swapping my best young driver to Isack Hadjar, but I\u2019ll use my first mulligan on overhauling my drivers\u2019 podium. I believe Piastri will win the drivers\u2019 world championship, Norris will finish second, and George Russell will overtake Verstappen for third. Piastri has been the cleaner driver in the McLaren, and if Mercedes can find a more consistent car performance window, Russell will continue being competitive for podium finishes. It\u2019ll be close between Verstappen and Russell, but I\u2019m feeling bold here, just because of the car differential. Verstappen remains the stronger driver.<\/p>\n Alex Albon matched his best finish of 2025 (fifth) from Miami with this drive at Imola. (Malcolm Griffiths \/ Formula 1 \/ Getty Images)Best of the rest Where things stand: Williams<\/p>\n Coleman: Talk about a swing and a miss from us on this one. I\u2019m taking a mulligan for \u2018best of the rest,\u2019 but I do want to point out that despite Alpine\u2019s car issues, Pierre Gasly has kept the team in regular points contention. It may be last in the standings and miles off of fifth, but Alpine already has the most points for any team that has finished last in the constructors\u2019 standings in the modern era (from the points format change in 2010). That being said, Alpine sits 50 points off of fifth-place Williams. There are still three sprint races and 10 grands prix to go, but I believe Williams will hold on. I have a feeling this\u2019ll be a close battle to the end, so keep an eye on the midfield.<\/p>\n Smith: I think I also need to take a mulligan on this one. Alpine has been nowhere near the level of performance I anticipated from 2024, its cause not helped by the struggles in the second car for Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan. Williams has been impressive and, despite its early end on development for 2025, I think it\u2019ll end up holding on to P5.<\/p>\n Surprise pole Where things stand: None<\/p>\n Iversen: At the time, I said, \u201cI will take no further questions about this incredibly safe pick.\u201d You fool. You absolute silly goose. I\u2019m using a mulligan here. Please. Lawson\u2019s hopes of a pole ended when Red Bull demoted him after two race weekends. Not only was this not a \u201csurprise,\u201d it\u2019s turned out to be a statistical improbability. In hindsight, calling this a \u201csafe pick\u201d was like voting an acorn as \u201cMost Likely to Survive Re-entry into Earth\u2019s Atmosphere.\u201d <\/p>\n For my mulligan, I\u2019ll take Hamilton for my surprise pole. I never would have considered him back in March for this category. After 14 races at Ferrari? Yeah, it\u2019d be surprising now that Saturdays have become \u201cHamilton Despondency Day\u201d with increasing frequency. A pole would go a long way toward rebuilding his confidence and making everyone forget my original pick here.<\/p>\n Kalinauckas: Luke and Madeline should take half a point given Antonelli\u2019s stunning Miami sprint qualifying result<\/a>, but then I believe no sprint event should ever count for points (well, either events all must have them or, even better, none), so a moot point overall. Back to my smug cave.<\/p>\n Surprise podium Where things stand: Antonelli finished third in Canada<\/p>\n Iversen: I\u2019m doubling down on Antonelli getting a podium this year. I think that\u2019s a free two points for me, no? What do you mean we\u2019re not scoring this?<\/p>\n Kalinauckas: Now you tell me there\u2019s no points to award\u2026<\/p>\n Antonelli celebrates his Canada podium, with a heckle from race winner Russell (Stefano Facchin\/Alessio Morgese\/NurPhoto\/Getty Images)Most improved team Where things stand: Williams, adding 53 points and moving from 9th to 5th<\/p>\n Coleman: I\u2019m doubling down on this one. Considering how quickly Williams shifted its focus to designing its 2026 car, I don\u2019t believe anyone assumed it would have improved on its 2024 performance this significantly. Adding 53 points across three sprints and 14 grands prix to last season\u2019s total, all while competitors continued developing their cars and Williams experienced reliability issues, is impressive. It\u2019s gone from once being considered a backmarker to the \u2018best of the rest\u2019 frontrunner, and even if the other midfield teams close the gap and overtake for fifth-place, it won\u2019t negate that Williams arguably is the most improved team of 2025.<\/p>\n Most improved driver Where things stand: Alex Albon (+42 points)<\/p>\n Smith: I\u2019m definitely taking a mulligan on this one\u2026 I really thought that Lawson would make good on the promise we\u2019d seen flashes of through his time at Racing Bulls in 2023 and 2024. He seemed so full of confidence. But there wasn\u2019t a moment in his two-race stint at Red Bull that delivered, leading to the ruthless switch pre-Japan. I\u2019ll change my pick to Albon on this, anticipating he\u2019ll keep up his form through the rest of the season.<\/p>\n Best young driver Where things stand: Hadjar (arguably)<\/p>\n Smith: This will be my double down for the rest of the season. There was a bit of me that considered mulligan-ing, as I\u2019ve been increasingly impressed by Gabriel Bortoleto\u2019s performances and I think he\u2019s actually been the best rookie so far this season, accounting for Antonelli\u2019s recent dip. But if we can get back to the Antonelli we saw pre-Imola, taking the Miami sprint pole and with growing confidence, I think he\u2019ll end the year being regarded as top young driver. Mercedes reverting to its older-spec rear suspension helped bring the \u2018old Kimi\u2019 back in Hungary, even if we didn\u2019t see that reproduced in the results. Now it\u2019s for him to kick on and end the year strong.<\/p>\n Kalinauckas: Another win for Michael, but only because I\u2019ve overruled and selected Hadjar, given Luke and Madeline have him ahead of the other rookies in our mid-season driver rankings<\/a>. And driver rankings are sacred in my book, even though everyone disagrees with all of them\u2026<\/p>\n Imagine a moment we\u2019ll remember from this season<\/p>\n Smith: First contact between Norris and Piastri Where things stand: Hamilton\u2019s Shanghai sprint win, Verstappen colliding with Russell in Spain, Norris\/Piastri contact<\/p>\n Iversen: I\u2019m taking my second mulligan here. My original pick was based on the premise that Ferrari would have a championship-worthy car, leading to existential questions if one driver were performing better than the other. Instead, it\u2019s been a tough car for either driver to tame.\u00a0<\/p>\n For my mulligan, I\u2019ll go with a twist on Luke\u2019s pick: The last contact of the season between Norris and Piastri will be the moment we remember the most from 2025, as it could very well decide who wins the championship.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kalinauckas: I\u2019m being generous and highlighting Madeline\u2019s Hamilton win pick, as even he acknowledged in China that a sprint victory means nothing compared to a pukka grand prix triumph. But Hamilton is still searching for this with Ferrari, and his quest to tick it off will be one of the major storylines to follow as 2025 resumes next week<\/a>. Also, Pat is being harsh on his call. There was plenty of angst around the intra-Ferrari results as early as one month into the season<\/a>.<\/p>\n (Top image: Erwin Scheriau\/APA\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2025 Formula One season is heading towards the end of its summer break. 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\nLuke Smith: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull
\nMadeline Coleman: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull
\nPatrick Iversen: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull
\nMichael Bailey: Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Norris, Verstappen, Piastri
\nColeman: Norris, Charles Leclerc, Verstappen
\nIversen: Verstappen, Norris, Leclerc
\nBailey: Hamilton, Norris, Verstappen<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/GettyImages-2215574547-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Alpine
\nColeman: Alpine
\nIversen: Aston Martin
\nBailey: Alpine<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Kimi Antonelli
\nColeman: Antonelli
\nIversen: Liam Lawson
\nBailey: Gasly<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Esteban Ocon
\nColeman: Carlos Sainz
\nIversen: Antonelli
\nBailey: Albon<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/GettyImages-2219679850-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Mercedes
\nColeman: Williams
\nIversen: Williams
\nBailey: Williams<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Verstappen\u2019s teammate
\nColeman: Hamilton
\nIversen: Gasly
\nBailey: Albon<\/p>\n
\nSmith: Antonelli
\nColeman: Ollie Bearman
\nIversen: Antonelli
\nBailey: Hadjar<\/p>\n
Coleman: Hamilton\u2019s first win as a Ferrari driver
Iversen: The questions and angst around Hamilton as Leclerc starts out-performing him by mid-season.
Bailey: Verstappen and another driver getting wildly upset with his driving<\/p>\n