{"id":96167,"date":"2025-08-27T11:08:07","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T11:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/96167\/"},"modified":"2025-08-27T11:08:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T11:08:07","slug":"ai-investors-are-navigating-peak-ambiguity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/96167\/","title":{"rendered":"AI investors are navigating \u2018peak ambiguity\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since stepping up in 2021 to run General Catalyst, one of the US\u2019s largest and most active venture capital firms, chief executive Hemant Taneja has taken a wide-ranging and unusual approach to investment in artificial intelligence. <\/p>\n<p>The firm has backed some of the biggest start-ups in the sector, including Anthropic and Mistral. But it has also launched an \u201cAI roll-up\u201d strategy to buy mundane service businesses and inject them with AI, and acquired a hospital system last year that Taneja says can be revamped with technology. <\/p>\n<p>General Catalyst\u2019s backers have rewarded the voyage into uncharted territory, with the firm <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e5502f81-6d89-4a9c-8242-1a3f161de2ca\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">raising an $8bn fund<\/a> last year. <\/p>\n<p>In this conversation with the Financial Times\u2019 venture capital correspondent George Hammond, Taneja describes how the firm is investing that pot amid an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/artificial-intelligence\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">AI<\/a> investment bubble, and the risks if AI is not developed responsibly.<\/p>\n<p>George Hammond: Let\u2019s start with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/stream\/d31644a8-3cbc-388d-9d61-15e6b26df91d\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">General Catalyst<\/a>\u2019s approach. You describe the firm as \u201can investment and transformation company\u201d and I wanted to break down your approach to AI in both those regards. How does a firm like yours make money from AI?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Hemant Taneja:\u00a0Let\u2019s start with the idea that AI is a transformative force and the value really accrues to companies that have existing customers and data, because they can actually be beneficiaries of applied AI. Organisations that have the culture and courage to transform themselves will be strengthened by AI; organisations that don\u2019t will be left behind. It starts with that theory of change.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Then let\u2019s break down the transformation of a business into various components: one, does an enterprise have the infrastructure that can adopt AI? Second, do the language models work well enough for the industry at large or do you need to build small models on top that are required to address the needs of that particular business function?<\/p>\n<p>Third is the workforce transformation: are you going to have an organisation that can be highly productive, with human beings as well as AI agents working in concert with each other? <\/p>\n<p>GH: When you apply that AI framework, what are some of the opportunities that come out in a field such as healthcare, where you have done a lot of work?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: Let\u2019s take an operational example: you have a call centre, can you \u201cAI-enable\u201d that? One of the companies we\u2019re building, Crescendo, is working on that. The other example is Hippocratic: you train an AI nurse and make it be exceptionally smart, safe, empathetic and very affordable compared with what it costs to have a nurse on the phone. What that does is alleviate the workforce and, if it\u2019s cheap enough you can have a mindset of abundance rather than triage.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Think about taking AI and saying \u201ccan the call centre be more cost-effective so the company or the health system can have operational leverage and be more profitable\u201d. And can we rethink the value proposition to the consumer or the patient because our AI nurse is so cost-effective that we can afford to call everybody, with a much greater frequency and for a much longer period to take care of them?<\/p>\n<p>If you generalise what I just said, by applying AI to a customer experience, you can enable every business to think with that kind of depth and how to take it to the consumer. That\u2019s a transformative value proposition for the businesses that end up applying it. <\/p>\n<p>GH: Are we talking about a value proposition or reality at the moment? There\u2019s huge promise to applied AI, but there\u2019s also a lot of friction from patients using virtual agents, issues for existing employees, and quality and fidelity questions around AI tools as they are now. Is this gaining traction in a meaningful way?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: There\u2019s a nuanced answer to that. If you look at the traction that Hippocratic is having, they are making hundreds of thousands, if not millions of calls a month, that nurses would have been making. People are being taken care of and the customer support costs of a health centre are going down. That is real because we built it in collaboration with the health system.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If I take a normal call centre, if you look at the customer support companies that are going in and saying, \u201chey, let\u2019s apply AI\u201d, you will see mixed results. You have to update the infrastructure, add the models, transform the workforce, for AI to really take hold. That\u2019s a very hard problem.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Our theory of change was: the places where organisations have already decided to outsource, because of labour arbitrage, were the places to start. They were already comfortable saying \u201cthis call centre in the Philippines will make calls for us\u201d. To outsource from that to an AI agent making calls is a much lighter lift.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s where the bright spots and the challenges are. There\u2019s inertia. But again, those are great insertion points in the enterprise and that\u2019s why these AI roll-ups are an easy entry point.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: Could you capture in a nutshell what the AI roll-up strategy is?<\/p>\n<p>HT: Take any department in the enterprise, what we have done is partnered with a strong technology team and acquired service businesses in those departments. That includes customer experience, legal, accounting, finance in industries like insurance, healthcare and others. <\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re going to find those companies that were traditionally service and labour companies and transform them with AI.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/https:\/\/d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net\/production\/41b7b79b-d7fe-4eca-b3be-416149fa1eed.jpg\" alt=\"Hemant Taneja sitting at a conference in San Francisco, California in September 2016\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"2248\" height=\"1499\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>Hemant Taneja: \u2018The consequence is that we\u2019re essentially taking away [offshoring] jobs in emerging economies that made up their middle market. And we\u2019re transforming those jobs into AI productivity opportunities\u2019 \u00a9 Steve Jennings\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>GH: Going back to your point about offshoring to the Philippines and then that being a natural step to AI agents, what are the consequences of that?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: The places where we\u2019re seeing this happen really fast, the consequence is that we\u2019re essentially taking away the jobs in these emerging economies that made up their middle market. And we\u2019re transforming those jobs into AI productivity opportunities for these companies that we\u2019re building.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>We have to think about applying reskilling frameworks to what those people are going to be doing with urgency. That is something we\u2019re giving a lot of thought to because unlike the previous technology trends, AI is the zeitgeist all over the world: every CEO in every industry, in every country, is thinking about applying AI at the same time. <\/p>\n<p>That has never happened with any technology trend before. And we\u2019re seeing the early evidence of that in these companies.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: One of the things you\u2019ve spoken about a lot as a firm and individually is responsible AI. It\u2019s made you at times an outlier in Silicon Valley and I know there\u2019s been fights with rivals including Andreessen Horowitz. Why is it such an important issue and what happens to you as investors, and also to these AI companies, if they don\u2019t uphold that responsible approach?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>$40bn+<\/p>\n<p>General Catalyst\u2019s assets under management, as of June 30<\/p>\n<p>HT: If you think about the last technology cycle, with social media, we applied that technology to society in a pretty aggressive way. While it\u2019s had a lot of positive impact, for the business models to work, social media also preyed on polarisation which had big consequences in society. <\/p>\n<p>That is a global trend. You can go to every country and see polarisation and unrest, a lot of it caused by the fact that the technology cycle and the productivity gains that came from it were put in the hands of very few. It became a world of the haves and the have-nots. <\/p>\n<p>If you think about what AI does, it takes that productivity and further concentrates it, into the hands of the very few. And this time it upends the labour productivity equation. If we\u2019re not intentional about thinking about inclusive prosperity, then the people are going to be much unhappier than they were in this last cycle. <\/p>\n<p>Capitalism is a privilege: it has to work for society or we won\u2019t be allowed to practice it. Being careful about the role of applied AI in society is really important.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: What could cost you that licence to operate? If these AI companies are in business at the privilege of society, what could cause that to be retracted?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: If we eliminate jobs at scale, these service jobs, and we don\u2019t reskill people to create a different opportunity for them, I don\u2019t think that\u2019s going to be a sustainable trend. I don\u2019t see how that works.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: You recently launched the General Catalyst Institute and this has been a conversation between [General Catalyst] and governments in various countries. What\u2019s your sense of how the US administration is approaching the development of AI? Do you think Washington is taking it seriously and considering the ramifications?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: I think administrations around the world are beginning to take this seriously and understand it\u2019s an important issue. Businesses haven\u2019t fully grasped it yet because we\u2019re early in the applied AI cycle. We have to address this with urgency.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: In the context of a race between the US and China for AI supremacy, is there a realistic shot at policymakers or companies limiting themselves in the race before something goes wrong?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: The risk is that if we don\u2019t help people understand their opportunities on the other side of adopting AI, we\u2019re going to create friction, to create fear.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not just about \u201cis our AI going to win versus the Chinese AI\u201d, it\u2019s also: will we create the conditions to accelerate the diffusion of this technology through our business that creates benefits across the entire economy. For that to happen, you need societal co-operation, which means people need to see the opportunity that they\u2019re getting as a result of this as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: How would you articulate that opportunity? <\/p>\n<p>HT: The things that are important are how to make the work more interesting for people and, if AI is going to do functions x, y and z, what are we going to build on that to create further value? That mindset needs to be applied to every job function.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: Are you beginning to see glimpses of human-AI collaboration where AI is augmenting human work rather than supplanting it?<\/p>\n<p>HT: Absolutely. We\u2019re seeing a lot of new innovations, a lot of founders working on this problem. One company where I\u2019m very focused on this is Grammarly. Their purpose is to make humans more productive, to reimagine how AI can maximise human potential in the enterprise.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/https:\/\/d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net\/production\/245fc77d-c504-4fb8-87cd-f63933d006d6.jpg\" alt=\"Smartphone showing Grammarly app ready to be opened from a digital storefront\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"2158\" height=\"1439\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>Taneja says Grammarly\u2019s purpose is to make \u2018humans more productive, to reimagine how AI can maximise human potential in the enterprise\u2019 \u00a9 Alamy<\/p>\n<p>GH: There\u2019s a really interesting tension in this. On the one hand we\u2019re talking about responsible AI and a rollout that respects human dignity in the workforce. Then, on the other hand, we have a hotter investment market almost than we\u2019ve ever seen. OpenAI is leading the charge, but Anthropic, Mistral and other portfolio companies are a big part of that too. <\/p>\n<p>How as an investor do you retain sobriety in that kind of environment? How do you stick to your values while also backing the fastest-growing companies and ensuring they can compete?<\/p>\n<p>This is peak ambiguity and we\u2019re all figuring it out in real time<\/p>\n<p>HT: Let me just say this is peak ambiguity and we\u2019re all figuring it out in real time. It comes down to backing founders with a true north. We have the responsible AI framework \u2014 the intention behind that has always been, if the founders can build with intentionality and give due consideration to the long-term impact on all the stakeholders, it buys us time to not be forced to regulate based on worries about what the technology can do.<\/p>\n<p>It all goes back to: what is the responsible innovation playbook with which you\u2019re building these companies? And if we as the innovation diaspora get that right, then it takes the pressure off of being forced to regulate fast, and creates market leadership in a way that\u2019s sustainable and inclusive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: Is there a risk that a bubble is forming in the AI sector, particularly around the model companies?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: Of course there\u2019s a bubble. And by the way, bubbles are good. Bubbles align capital and talent in a new trend, and that creates some carnage, but it also creates enduring, new businesses that change the world. It happens in every bubble. <\/p>\n<p>The thing that makes it peak ambiguity right now is, in the previous trends, you sort of knew what those technology trends were invoking and what the role of the companies driving those trends was. That\u2019s what\u2019s really unclear in this world of intelligence. <\/p>\n<p>The trend is the models, then all this innovation gets built on top, both from an infrastructure perspective and also applications. But then the models get smarter and they gobble everything up, so which applications that get built on the models are going to be durable and what\u2019s going to be subsumed by these models? That\u2019s what makes it difficult to understand where to invest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If you think about some of the companies that got funded when [OpenAI\u2019s earlier model] GPT-3 was launched, some of those don\u2019t have a future any more because those functionalities got subsumed by GPT-4. <\/p>\n<p>That trend has continued and you can see that with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e75e3388-4700-413d-ab67-778410c2d977\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Anthropic and the great work<\/a> it\u2019s done in coding. So are we going to invest in companies that will fundamentally obsolesce because these models become more capable?\u00a0That we just don\u2019t know. We debate this every single day. <\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s why we\u2019re doing the roll-ups \u2014 we\u2019re in effect acquiring customers and helping them be the beneficiaries of technology, no matter how it gets developed and transforming them \u2014 because that role is always going to be needed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And we\u2019re also invested in companies like Anthropic and Mistral at the model layer where we think important companies need to be built.<\/p>\n<p>GH: It\u2019s an interesting question for start-ups in AI, whether their best outcome is getting acquired by an OpenAI, Anthropic, Cognition or Google, like Windsurf recently. There has been more consolidation for start-ups recently, does that change how you view valuations in these businesses, how you underwrite them, who you think can get off the ground? <\/p>\n<p>You want to follow the lead of your founders who are close to the bleeding edge, and ultimately back their intuition on this<\/p>\n<p>HT: It\u2019s incredibly hard. These companies are growing very fast, so the valuations are extraordinary to reward them for the extraordinary growth, but what you don\u2019t know is: is there durability or will they obsolesce? If you look at Windsurf, we were investors in that. I don\u2019t know if the founders of that company are right or wrong, but their conclusion was that they will have greater impact in that industry by being part of Google and aligning the company with its own models.<\/p>\n<p>Our belief always is, you want to follow the lead of your founders who are close to the bleeding edge, and ultimately back their intuition on this, so we were obviously supportive of that decision. <\/p>\n<p>But it\u2019s mind boggling. You would have never done that to a company like that in the previous cycles, you would be \u201cwow, we\u2019ve got a category winner\u201d, with the way it\u2019s growing and the way people use the product and how they love it. <\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the kind of challenge we and some of the best investors\u00a0and founders are feeling right now, in understanding what\u2019s to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: Well, it\u2019s anathema to venture capital, isn\u2019t it? If the best, fastest-growing companies decide that their best outcome is going to work at Google, that challenges the whole industry.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: The other company that faces this is Cursor and they\u2019re not doing that. They\u2019re going at it. That\u2019s why I said it\u2019s more nuanced, one company has one theory of change, the other has a different theory of change. They are both excellent companies. <\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t think the founders at these power law companies [the small number of investments that generate the majority of returns] are throwing in the towel. Look at Anthropic, OpenAI, some of these other businesses, that\u2019s not happening. They\u2019re all navigating ambiguity.<\/p>\n<p>GH: One of the other things I wanted to touch on was sovereign AI [a nation\u2019s own AI capabilities], particularly as you are a global investment firm. It\u2019s increasingly a theme, given concerns around privacy and data usage and reliance on Chinese tech, but US tech increasingly for Europe as well. How much opportunity does that create for a company like Mistral in Europe or others elsewhere to go and build a sovereign model? <\/p>\n<p>AI Exchange<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/https:\/\/d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net\/production\/2a8e285a-44e9-4097-975b-62b71bd1eacb.png\" alt=\"Illustrated portraits of four people \u2014 clockwise from top left: Madhumita Murgia, Demis Hassabis, Sam Liang and Elaine Moore \u2014 arranged in a square against a vibrant orange digital background featuring data and circuit-like patterns\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"700\" height=\"466\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>\u00a9 Leonie Woods<\/p>\n<p>This spin-off from our popular Tech Exchange series of dialogues examines the benefits, risks and ethics of using artificial intelligence, by talking to those at the centre of its development.<\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/ai-exchange\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rest of the interviews<\/a><\/p>\n<p>HT: Sovereign AI is not only a great opportunity for companies like Mistral, it\u2019s also a great responsibility. You don\u2019t want the service sector to melt into AI productivity for US companies, or Chinese companies. Figuring out a way to capture labour resources into AI productivity onshore is what will create the most resilient economies worldwide. <\/p>\n<p>We need to help every region figure out how to do that or we\u2019re going to hollow them out. Europe\u2019s in a precarious position because their manufacturing got hollowed out to China, and if they also hollow out their productivity to the US, then it\u2019s going to be very hard. <\/p>\n<p>GH: You are investors in Mistral and Anthropic, two of the big foundation model companies. Do you think there is room for a whole panoply of foundation model companies or, as some other investors think, that this is going to be winner takes all in each region?<\/p>\n<p>HT: In the end we\u2019re not going to have 10 large language model companies with market-leading models and viable business models. You may have a few. A lot of people say there will be six, I think it\u2019s going to be three or four. But then it comes down to where do they all specialise and focus? The sovereign AI opportunity will lead to local opportunities for AI models and infrastructure, given what\u2019s at stake for those regions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GH: How much is that sovereign race affected by the combination of very mobile talent and high wages for the best researchers sparked by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5a30cd25-90f9-41a4-924c-1e7c6772a47f\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Meta buying [49 per cent of] Scale AI<\/a> and throwing out nine-figure salaries for various people? If you can be anywhere and command that kind of salary as a top researcher, why would you not be in the US?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: This comes down to AI researchers. Some can be mercenaries chasing the biggest dollars, some can want to work on the most interesting problems that might be afforded by some of these larger US companies and some might be chasing the patriotic local opportunities. <\/p>\n<p>Some will not focus on making $100mn or $1bn or whatever the alleged rates are for the best researchers, but making a difference in their country or industry. <\/p>\n<p>GH: Given everything we\u2019ve spoken about \u2014 the money coming into the sector but also the ambiguity and the consolidation \u2014 where are you thinking about your potential exits in AI?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>HT: I really believe there\u2019s going to be a whole wave of public companies that get created because of AI. A lot of the most exciting ideas in 10 years are going to be companies that are low-margin service businesses today that got transformed with AI. You\u2019re going to see a lot of enduring businesses that get built there, you\u2019ll see a lot in the model and the infrastructure layer as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The M&amp;A market is going to be vibrant as well not only to acquire talent, but also because, if the larger companies get some of those decisions wrong, they\u2019re going to want to acquire the smaller ones to get back on track from a time-to-market perspective. It would be an interesting M&amp;A market.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Since stepping up in 2021 to run General Catalyst, one of the US\u2019s largest and most active venture&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96168,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[554,733,4308,86,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-96167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-technology","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96167\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}