College football’s busy bowl slate for Saturday, Dec. 27 in the 2025-26 season continues with North Texas and San Diego State meeting in the New Mexico Bowl. With a combined 20-5 record, the Mean Green and Aztecs were among the top Group of 5 teams in the nation this season.
After a 3-9 debut last season, second-year coach Sean Lewis guided San Diego State to massive improvement in ‘25. En route to a 9-3 record, the Aztecs crushed California (34-0), blanked Fresno State (23-0), and defeated eventual Mountain West champion Boise State (17-7). A 23-17 defeat to New Mexico on Dec. 28 knocked San Diego State out of the Mountain West title game, as Lewis’ team lost on four-way computer tiebreakers to Boise State and UNLV.
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North Texas (five) nearly matched San Diego State (six) in win total improvement from ‘24 to this season. The Mean Green used a prolific offense under coach Eric Morris to make the jump from bowl team to American Conference title contender. A 34-21 loss in the conference championship ended North Texas’ hopes of a playoff trip, but the 11 wins marked a single-season best mark for the program. Morris departed to be the head coach at Oklahoma State after the loss to Tulane in the American Conference title game, with assistant Drew Svoboda working as the team’s interim coach.
San Diego State holds a 6-1 series edge over North Texas. However, these two teams have not played since 1975. The Mean Green are 1-4 in their last five bowl trips. The Aztecs are 2-3 in that span.
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State Odds, Details
Location: University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M.
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 27 at 5:45 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: North Texas -3.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Announcers: Lowell Galindo, Aaron Murray, Lauren Sisler
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North Texas vs. San Diego State: Keys to Victory
Jan 3, 2025; Dallas, TX, USA; North Texas Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Texas State Bobcats at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images© Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
Why North Texas Will Win The New Mexico Bowl
Despite Morris’ departure to Oklahoma State, and barring any last-minute opt outs, the Mean Green are expected to be largely at full strength on Dec. 27. Included in the projected starting lineup remains standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. That duo was instrumental in the offense leading the nation in scoring (44.8 points a game) and ranking second in yards per play (7.3).
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Mestemaker was a breakout star for North Texas in ‘25 and leads the nation in passing yards per game (317.6). The redshirt freshmen threw for 4,129 yards, connected on 70.2 percent of his throws, and passed for 31 touchdowns to only seven picks. Top targets in Wyatt Young (63 catches for 1,209 yards), Cameron Dorner (845 yards), Miles Coleman (46 catches), and Landon Sides (29) are also all listed on the depth chart and expected to play. In addition to his prowess on the ground, Hawkins (1,236 yards) was a key safety valve (29 catches) for Mestemaker out of the backfield.
Although San Diego State’s defense is one of the best in the nation, stopping Mestemaker, Hawkins, and a deep group of playmakers is going to be a massive challenge. With injuries limiting the Aztecs offensively, the Mean Green can simply jump ahead on the scoreboard early and force SDSU out of its comfort zone.
Why San Diego State Will Win The New Mexico Bowl
San Diego State’s hopes of a victory on Saturday took a hit when quarterback Jayden Denegal was ruled out due to shoulder surgery. The Michigan transfer threw for 1,807 yards and nine scores and added four more on the ground in the regular season. With Denegal sidelined, Lewis is expected to turn to Bert Emanuel Jr. under center. Emanuel Jr. has struggled with consistency in the passing game, but as showcased in small stints this year and at Central Michigan (2022-24), he’s a dynamic option on the ground.
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With Emanuel’s ability as a runner, along with a deep stable of backs headlined by Lucky Sutton (1,237 yards), Lewis is likely to lean heavily on the ground game to control the pace of this game. Add in running backs Christian Washington (486 yards) and Byron Cardwell (261) on the ground, and it’s clear the Aztecs have plenty of options to turn this game into a slog and keep North Texas’ high-powered offense on the sidelines. The Mean Green struggled against the run in the regular season, surrendering 207.2 yards a contest and 22 runs of 20-plus yards.
In addition to a rushing attack averaging 188.1 yards a game, defense was also a major strength for Lewis’ team in ‘25. The Aztecs ranked No. 6 nationally in success rate and held opponents to 4.1 yards a snap. Barring any late opt outs, this unit is slated to be largely at full strength. However, there’s turnover at the top. Coordinator Rob Aurich departed to take over the play-calling duties at Nebraska, with assistant Demetrius Sumler promoted into the coordinator role. Sumler faces a significant test in his first game with North Texas’ offensive talent and overall firepower.
New Mexico Bowl Prediction: North Texas 31, San Diego State 24
Which style wins out on Saturday? Is it Mestemaker and Hawkins leading North Texas’ high-profile offense one more time? Or can the Aztecs lean on their ground game to chew up the clock and limit Mestemaker’s touches against their standout defense? The contrasting styles should make for an entertaining battle.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 26, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.