Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.
Levi’s turns into a pressure chamber when the one-seed sits on the table. Seattle walks in at 13–3 with the bye in reach, and San Francisco arrives at 12–4 needing a win. A Seattle win or tie locks the NFC West, the No. 1 seed, and the lone bye. A Seattle loss drops it straight into the No. 5 seed and a road Wild Card weekend. San Francisco’s math is brutal: win and it takes the one-seed, lose and it becomes a wild card. If the Rams beat Arizona, a 49ers loss can even slide to the No. 6 seed. The whole week, the league argued about rest, caution, and coaches hiding cards. Nobody hides in this building, and nobody coasts in this rivalry. This game feels like January football wearing a Week 18 label. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
San Francisco sits at +0.089 EPA/play on 1,040 snaps, while Seattle sits at +0.015 on 948. The defenses flip it hard, because Seattle allows -0.112 EPA/play on 1,023, while San Francisco allows +0.067 on 961. Over the last five weeks, the 49ers surge to +0.144 EPA/play, and Seattle stays near neutral at +0.021. Seattle’s defense keeps its teeth at -0.126 EPA/play allowed lately, and San Francisco’s defense stabilizes at -0.055. That sets the thesis cleanly: Brock Purdy (QB) has the better machine, but Seattle brings the better eraser. With Trent Williams (T) not expected, that eraser matters more, because the pocket loses its best brace.
Now the matchup becomes about stress, not talent. Purdy lives at 0.271 EPA/dropback, and Sam Darnold (QB) sits at 0.113. Purdy dominates the money downs at 0.630 EPA/dropback on third down, while Darnold sits at -0.115. Purdy cashes the red zone at 0.486 EPA/dropback, while Darnold sits at -0.014. Seattle’s defense creates pressure on 43.1% of dropbacks with 44 sacks and 17 interceptions, and it still blitzes only 21.3%. San Francisco pressures at 31.8% with 18 sacks and six interceptions, so the Cross absence hurts less than it should. The Seahawks can still play with a steady run diet, because Zach Charbonnet (RB) has produced +0.240 EPA per rush with a 50.0% success rate over the last six weeks. Kenneth Walker (RB) has carried similar volume with a -0.172 EPA per rush, so the handoffs need to find the hotter lane. The Seahawks’ passing volume flows through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), who owns 48 targets with +0.727 EPA per target, and Cooper Kupp (WR) has seven red-zone targets with only one touchdown. San Francisco’s pass game hits like a sequence of clean cuts, because George Kittle (TE) sits at 22 targets, 270 yards, and +0.959 EPA per target, while Jauan Jennings (WR) has eight red-zone targets and five touchdowns with +1.283 EPA per target. Ricky Pearsall (WR) adds +1.149 EPA per target, so Seattle’s zone has to tackle, rally, and survive the spacing.
This is the NFL’s top table, and the margins get weaponized when the bye is the prize. One week, one seed, one extra home game, and one less game of attrition is the difference between a parade and a postmortem. Seattle’s recent shape feels sturdier, because its defense hasn’t wobbled while the offense has learned how to win ugly. San Francisco’s surge is real, but it’s also carrying more friction tonight, because the protection ecosystem is thinner and every early negative play turns the crowd from joy into anxiety. This is the kind of game where one sack, one tipped ball, or one special-teams swing rewrites the entire fourth quarter.
Seahawks vs. 49ers pick, best bet
The 49ers case is obvious, and it deserves respect. Over the last six weeks, that offense posts 0.223 EPA/play with 0.414 pass EPA/play, plus a 72.7% red-zone touchdown rate and a 64.2% third-down conversion rate. Purdy also survives pressure better than Darnold, sitting at -0.063 EPA/dropback under heat while Darnold sinks to -0.305. If San Francisco stays on schedule, the drive ends in points, and the home crowd can tilt the cadence. I still come back to the trench reality and the scoring choke points. Seattle’s defense has allowed only 5.7 yards per attempt and a 59.4% completion rate over the last six weeks, with eight interceptions in that span. Seattle also turns pressure into takeaways, and that matters more when the 49ers cannot lean on their cleanest protection answers. If this game lives in third-and-long, Seattle owns the leverage.
So I’m playing Seattle -2.5, and I’m comfortable with the logic even in a high-variance spot. San Francisco has been more disciplined with 18 penalties to Seattle’s 35, and it owns a better field position differential at +6.6 yards versus +2.7. San Francisco also goes for it more often on fourth down, and it has converted every try in this stretch. Seattle answers with hidden points of its own, because the kicking game sits perfect at 18-for-18 on field goals and special teams EPA stacks up at 27.0 versus 15.7. The turnover profile also leans Seattle over the last six weeks, at +4 differential versus -1. That combination supports a road favorite winning a tight game without needing an offensive masterpiece. Seattle clinches the bye with a win, and that urgency fits how this defense travels.
This is also a tone game for the postseason, because the one-seed isn’t just rest, it’s narrative control. Seattle has the feel of a team that trusts its spine, because it keeps winning games that look uncomfortable on paper. San Francisco can absolutely land the big punches, but Seattle’s defense has been living in other teams’ kitchens for weeks, and that travels in January. When the league shrinks into single possessions, I want the unit that can steal two drives and keep its pulse.
My projected final is Seahawks 24, 49ers 20.
Best bet: Seahawks -2.5 (-120) at 49ers
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
I’m riding Jauan Jennings anytime TD at +195. The role is too loud to price like a coin flip. Over the last six weeks he has eight red-zone targets and five touchdowns, and he’s been a pure points-conversion piece at +1.283 EPA per target. San Francisco has lived on leverage downs lately, scoring touchdowns on 72.7% of red-zone trips and converting 64.2% on third down. Seattle’s coverage menu leans zone and Cover 3, which still invites those glance routes and inside breakers near the goal line. With protection a little thinner, the ball should come out fast, and that’s where Jennings lives. Touchdowns are noisy, but this one is usage, spacing, and deliberate high-leverage reads from Purdy.
Best prop lean: Jauan Jennings anytime TD (+195)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!