How an ugly 49ers loss will shape a much more grueling playoff path

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During a season in which nearly every 49ers star suffered a serious injury, Christian McCaffrey was the team’s lone constant.

McCaffrey rushed for more than 1,200 yards, added more than 900 yards as a receiver, and simply willed the team through some of the most brutal stretches of the season. So with a chance to engineer one last regular-season comeback, it was downright shocking to see McCaffrey bobble a pass from Brock Purdy that ultimately landed in the hands of linebacker Drake Thomas inside the Seahawks 5-yard line.

The 49ers wouldn’t have been in position to win the NFC West, to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff field, and potentially secure a first-round bye entering Week 18 without McCaffrey’s brilliance, but his fourth-quarter drop effectively sealed the outcome of a 13-3 loss that will send San Francisco on the road to open the postseason next weekend. 

Instead of needing to play two games at Levi’s Stadium to advance to Super Bowl 60, the 49ers must win three games (all likely to come on the road) to have a shot at returning to Santa Clara in February. The loss to the Seahawks will keep the 49ers waiting until Sunday to find out their playoff fate, as outcomes of games involving the Rams, Bears, Eagles, and Falcons will dictate where San Francisco will travel for next weekend’s wild-card matchup. 

To make matters worse for the 49ers, Purdy suffered a stinger on the team’s final offensive snap, as he was crunched by Seattle defenders while heaving a desperation throw downfield. The defense also lost two starting linebackers, Tatum Bethune (groin) and Dee Winters (ankle) to injuries that put their status for the 49ers’ playoff opener in jeopardy.

In Week 18, it was the Seahawks’ defense, not the 49ers’ unit, that came up with the crucial second-half turnover when the ball was up for grabs.

Late in the third quarter, Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold put the ball on the ground, Yetur Gross-Matos lunged toward it, and the 49ers had a potentially game-changing takeaway within their grasp. 

Gross-Matos’ inability to corral a Seahawks fumble late in the third quarter didn’t cost the 49ers Saturday’s game, but it preceded a disastrous series of events. 

Two plays after Seattle running back Zach Charbonnet beat the 49ers’ defense to the loose ball, running back Kenneth Walker took a pitch on 3rd down and 17 on a play that signaled the Seahawks were waving the white flag on the possession and happy to punt the ball away. Instead, Walker scampered through a 49ers defense for 19 yards on a crushing run that extended a drive that ended with Jason Myers’ 31-yard field goal. 

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Seattle took a 13-3 lead, and a San Francisco team that scored at least 37 points in all three of its December victories and entered 2026 riding a six-game win streak was toast. 

No matter what Purdy, coach Kyle Shanahan, and a 49ers’ offense that played without starting left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall tried, a Seahawks team coached by Mike Macdonald had answers. 

Seahawks quarterbacker Sam Darnold motions to his team at the line of scrimmage against the 49ers during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. | Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard

After riding a dominant offensive performance to a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears in Week 17, Purdy and the 49ers looked completely overmatched throughout the first half of Saturday’s game. 

San Francisco scored four first-half touchdowns against Chicago, but was limited to just three first downs and three points in a shaky first-half showing against Seattle. 

Seattle so thoroughly dominated the first half that it was fairly remarkable San Francisco opened the third quarter with an opportunity to tie the game. The Seahawks outgained the 49ers by 127 yards (196-69) yards, ran 14 more plays (34-20), and possessed the ball for nearly nine extra minutes (19:20-10:40). 

The 49ers were only able to stay within striking distance thanks to a few self-inflicted mistakes from the Seahawks. 

Seattle botched an easy scoring opportunity on its first possession as Darnold took a 10-yard sack on a passing play on 1st and goal from the 1-yard line before throwing an incompletion on 4th and goal from the 4-yard line. Macdonald’s choice to forego a field goal opportunity ultimately paid dividends when the Seahawks’ defense forced the 49ers to go three-and-out on their first possession, which was followed shortly thereafter by Charbonnet’s 27-yard touchdown run.

On Seattle’s first drive of the second quarter, Walker caught a pass in the flat on 3rd and 14 and appeared to have ample running room to shorten the length of Jason Myers’ upcoming field goal attempt. Instead, Walker was stopped in his tracks by 49ers rookie cornerback Upton Stout, who shed a block and dropped the Seahawks’ ball carrier to the grass. 

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde embrace after the game at Levi’s Stadium on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. | Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard

Myers’ ensuing 47-yard field goal attempt sailed wide of the uprights, keeping the 49ers within one possession.

The teams traded field goals later in the quarter as Myers connected from 45 yards before Eddy Piñeiro hit from 48 yards out, but Shanahan opted not to use his timeouts after Sam Okuayinonu sacked Darnold with a minute to play in the first half. 

Shanahan is often ultra-aggressive in end-of-half situations, but on Saturday, his offense didn’t give him much reason to see what it could do.

Inside Shanahan’s approach

When the 49ers ruled Pearsall out 90 minutes before the game, it was clear they’d face a battle as steep as the San Francisco hills that Colton McKivitz trains on in the offseason.

They obviously don’t have Brandon Aiyuk. No Pearsall means massive separation issues for the 49ers downfield — and that lined up to be trouble against an elite Seattle defense that also wasn’t allowing much room in the run game.

Shanahan called the game from a somewhat desperate lens that was reflective of the 49ers’ disadvantages downfield. He called a deep-shot play-action on an early 4th-and-1. Seattle didn’t bite, so Purdy had to go underneath on a last-resort read to fullback Kyle Juszczyk — and the throw was broken up. Then, the 49ers tried a double-pitch trick play that — because the Seahawks again stayed home without biting on the fake — netted only a few yards.

Even when neither of those ultra-aggressive play calls worked, the 49ers had a chance to make this truly competitive when Purdy uncorked several sweet throws on a long fourth-quarter drive. But then Seattle defensive end Boye Mafe tipped a Purdy pass to McCaffrey, who dropped perhaps the worst pass of his career near the goal line. It caromed right to Thomas.

That snuffed out any hopes of another 49ers’ miracle on a night that saw Seattle dominate them statistically.

The Seahawks did leave windows of opportunity open for the 49ers, especially with two missed field goals on the night. But the 49ers capitalized on essentially none of them. The defense, in particular, failed with two golden opportunities: