Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 7’s London game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Rams.
Wembley draws theater, and this one arrives with high drama baked in. The Los Angeles experiment will push the limits of body clocks and routine: the Rams practiced all week at Camden Yards, then chose a Saturday flight to London, trusting continuity over circadian comfort. The Jacksonville counter is classic London muscle memory; the Jaguars landed Tuesday and set up at The Grove, embracing the early acclimation they’ve mastered for years. Liam Coen, head coach, once carried a headset under Sean McVay; the teacher-pupil familiarity seasons this chess match with an extra pinch of tells. Wembley itself will roar; last year’s Jaguars-Patriots tilt set a UK regular-season attendance record and turned that end of London into a second home. The building is not a stranger to these Rams either, who blanked Arizona in 2017 and handled Cincinnati in 2019 on prior UK trips. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 7’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Los Angeles has a rather impressive +1.5 yards-per-play differential, while Jacksonville sits at −0.5, and the spread mirrors that edge (Jags +3). Jacksonville’s defense counters with 17.4 defensive yards per point allowed, a profile that bends without breaking and squeezes red zone possessions. The top-line form backs it up. Los Angeles scores 23.3 points per game and stacks 375.0 yards, with 269.2 through the air and 105.8 on the ground. Jacksonville answers with 23.3 points and 331.0 yards, balanced by 207.0 passing and 124.0 rushing. The Rams suffocate better, allowing 18.3 points and 306.8 yards, with 199.0 passing yards and 107.8 rushing yards permitted. The Jaguars hang at 20.0 points allowed and 347.8 yards, but their pass defense bleeds at 256.3 per game, ranked 29th, while the run front steadies at 91.5 per game.
An interesting wrinkle from the bunch: he coaching web adds spice. Liam Coen knows Sean McVay’s rhythm and verbiage from his season running Los Angeles’ offense in 2022, a familiarity that trims the guesswork in a neutral-site chess match.
Personnel tilt still sways under the arches. Matthew Stafford enters with 1,684 yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 66.5% completion rate. He has steered two lower-octane wins by scores of 14–9 and 17–3, comfortable grinding tempo. Puka Nacua and Rob Havenstein are ruled out, so the pass game funnels more to Davante Adams while Kyren Williams carries the ballast. Williams owns 418 rushing yards at 4.4 per carry with two scores, plus 18 catches and three receiving touchdowns. Those absences matter in a travel-tightened week, especially against a defense that lives off tips and steals. Jacksonville’s coverage has sprung leaks, but its hands stay sticky; the group ranks tied first in turnover differential at +8 and has six different players with interceptions, a beehive that punishes hesitation. Travis Etienne swings the heartbeat with 470 rushing yards, 5.3 per carry, and two touchdowns, and he adds 13 catches for 69 yards and another score. Trevor Lawrence sits at 1,324 yards with eight touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 61.1% completion rate, plus 95 rushing yards and two more touchdowns.
The fronts will dictate how the air war breathes. Byron Young leads Los Angeles with 7.5 sacks, and Jared Verse adds three; that pair threatens to collapse launch points and force hot throws. Nathan Landman cleans up with 58 tackles. Jacksonville can steal downs with Foyesade Oluokun, who has 53 tackles and a sack, and Devin Lloyd, who has four interceptions and two tackles for loss. Jourdan Lewis stacks four tackles for loss and two picks, while Andrew Wingard adds a theft and 34 tackles. That turnover web fits Jacksonville’s identity, but the pressure math matters more on third down, and Los Angeles’ defense sits at 36.5% allowed while Jacksonville’s sits at 41%.
History beats like a drum beneath the surface. Los Angeles handled London last time out, beating Cincinnati at Wembley in 2019, and thumped Arizona 33–0 on the 2017 trip, proof this operation can travel when the details sing. Now the variables tighten again: one side embedded all week, one side pin-pricking jet lag with a last-minute hop, one side down a target hog and a bookend, the other riding a turnover windfall. The stat spine still points slightly toward Los Angeles on baseline efficiency, but the setting, the arrivals, and the injury ledger tilt the opening movements toward Jacksonville before the math reasserts itself.
Rams vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
The deeper efficiency sketch still leans blue and gold. Los Angeles brings 19 sacks and a defense that ranks fourth in yards allowed per pass at 5.7, which pairs cleanly against a Jacksonville pass game that plays shorter and invites rallies. Jacksonville counters with 10 interceptions and an eighth-ranked rushing defense by yardage, but that profile coexists with a bottom-four yardage allowance through the air. The Rams have also permitted only two rushing touchdowns all season, the best figure in the league, which tightens the end-zone valves on Etienne’s explosiveness and forces a finish through contested windows.
Context keeps whispering under the noise. Neutral-site totals have sunk for both teams, and London has rewarded patience more than pyrotechnics. Trends from the dossier nudge the same direction: seven of Jacksonville’s last eight after a loss have slid under, and each of Los Angeles’ last five at neutral sites has ended beneath the number. The market has already respected that tempo by shading the total down, and the underlying split stats support a game built on punts that bite and drives that gasp near the 30.
So what breaks it? Tempo discipline and first-read decisiveness. Los Angeles wins when Stafford marries quick game with shot-play restraint and trusts the ground to sand the clock. Jacksonville stays inside the number when Lawrence avoids the bait throws that this defense manufactures with late-rotating safeties and five-man looks. Early, the embedded team may feel sharper, but the longer the game stretches, the more Los Angeles’ situational edges and defensive red-zone rate matter.
I project a tight LA victory—Rams 22, Jaguars 20. That keeps us two and a half points under the number and true to the tempo this trip prescribes. My best bet is u44.5, and I ride it with conviction through the London shadows and the late-arriving legs.
Best bet: Jaguars vs. Rams u44.5 total points (-105)
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For a prop lean, ’ll braid two angles that harmonize with the script: Kyren Williams over 69.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown at +170. The portfolio supports it. Los Angeles ranks first in PFF run-block grade and 12% in run-block win rate, while Jacksonville sits 27% in run-stop win rate and 16th in schedule-adjusted run defense. Jacksonville also ranks 14th in both yards and EPA allowed per rush, which pushes the grind rather than a brick wall. Williams’ usage sings near paint, with 22 red-zone rushes and targets through six weeks, and he has found the end zone in 16 of 22 games dating to last season. The personnel picture boosts the volume case, too; with Nacua sidelined, Los Angeles tilts more run-centric to steady protection and protect the possession margin. The parlay taps a London-friendly shape: handoffs that thrum, a red-zone tote that cashes, and a clock that keeps breathing shallow.
Best prop lean: Kyren Williams o69.5 rushing yards + anytime TD (+170)
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