The good news: Arrests among Orange County’s kids have dropped dramatically over the past decade.
The not-so-good news: Much of that is due to changes in the law. Also, over the past few years, the trend is reversing.
Violent crime arrests more than doubled between 2022 and 2024, according to data from the California Department of Justice. Property offense arrests were up nearly 55%.
Overall, during that recent window, felony arrests of juveniles for serious crimes were up 64%, while less-serious misdemeanor arrests were up 78%.
What’s going on?
It may be as simple as recent statistics being distorted by the pandemic, said Richard D. McCleary, Ph.D., a professor of criminology, law and society at UC Irvine. Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer is inclined to agree.
“Orange County juvenile crime numbers are consistent with the statewide trend of returning to pre-COVID 19 pandemic levels as law enforcement agencies have returned to proactive enforcement and children are beginning to return to in person school,” said Spitzer by email.
“Many crimes committed by juveniles have a natural nexus to school, and interacting with other children results in assaults, theft and other crimes, interactions which simply were not happening as children were doing at home learning during the pandemic.”
Officials at Orange County Probation also concur. The data “strongly suggests a rebalancing following the COVID-19 period, rather than a sustained increase in youth crime. Felony, violent, and other offense categories appear to be stabilizing closer to pre-pandemic levels after the artificial lows of 2020–2021. The 2020-2021 period does not represent a stable baseline, but a period of suppressed system activity,” said spokesperson Aashi Patel by email.
But Ryan Flaco Rising, a critical criminologist working on his doctorate at UCI, sees much more at work.
“Importantly, this increase is not driven by drug offenses, which have plummeted due to policy changes, nor by status offenses, which have nearly disappeared,” Rising said. “This suggests that what we are seeing is not moral decay or lawlessness, but rather unmet developmental and relational needs manifesting as harm.”
The pandemic hangover has included increased family instability, housing insecurity and economic stresses for a lot of kids, Rising added. And that has consequences.
Upstream, downstream
“While it is true that juvenile crime is down overall compared to a decade ago, the recent post-2021 increases in violent, property, felony and misdemeanor offenses should not be understood primarily as a failure of enforcement, prosecution or deterrence,” Rising said by email.
The Lady of Justice statue stands in silhouette against the clouds outside the Riverside Historic Courthouse in Riverside on Friday, Nov. 24, 2023. (Photo by Watchara Phomicinda, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)
“Rather, they reflect a systemic collapse of youth development infrastructure, compounded by the near-total absence of ‘Credible Messenger–led’ interventions and empowerment pathways for young people who are not already criminalized.”
The core issue, he said, is that struggling kids aren’t getting the support they need until after they break the law. The things that could help them avoid trouble — resources, attention, mentorship, jobs — overwhelmingly flow through probation and diversion programs, juvenile halls and court-mandated services.
“This creates a perverse and dangerous policy architecture,” he said. “Youth who are struggling but not yet arrested receive little to no meaningful support. Youth who commit low-level offenses suddenly gain access to wraparound services that should have been available upstream. The system unintentionally incentivizes crisis and criminalization as gateways to care. In short, we have built a downstream response system and dismantled the upstream prevention ecosystem.”
A big missing piece in Orange County’s youth violence prevention strategy is a lack of community-based adults who’ve been through what the kids are going through, and can share their wisdom. Institutions can’t replicate that.
“Young people are far more responsive to guidance from adults who have ‘been there’ than from distant authority figures,” Rising said. “Yet Orange County has largely failed to institutionalize Credible Messengers as a core public safety and youth development strategy.”
Orange County Condition of Children report
As a result, he added, youth experiencing alienation, trauma or economic insecurity are left to navigate identity, conflict and survival without mentorship that resonates with them. Decades of research in sociology, criminology and public health demonstrate that youth behavior is deeply shaped by peer networks, identity formation and perceived future horizons. Trust, not surveillance, is the primary currency of influence.
There has been a shift from “youth development” to “youth risk management.”
“This managerial approach misunderstands adolescence as a problem to be controlled rather than a developmental stage requiring belonging, purpose, and agency,” Rising said.
When young people lack access to meaningful employment, creative outlets, leadership opportunities and a collective identity they seek often seek them in informal economies, peer groups or conflict-driven spaces that can escalate into violence. The data don’t tell a story of youth becoming more dangerous, but of institutions withdrawing from their nurturing.
“Juvenile violence is not a mystery — it is a mirror. It reflects what we have chosen not to fund, not to prioritize, and not to imagine as possible,” Rising said.
What to do?
If Orange County is serious about reversing these trends, it must invest more in programs that build youth leadership, political education, employment opportunities and “collective efficacy” — before kids get arrested.
“Youth should not need a case number to access mentorship, therapy or opportunity,” Rising said. “Safety emerges when young people feel seen, invested in, and accountable to trusted community figures.”
Orange County Probation said it’s doing those things; investing in evidence-based strategies while promoting positive youth development, Patel said. The department partners with schools, community organizations and local agencies to expand prevention and early intervention efforts.
Programs and nonprofits such as Project Kinship, Waymakers, Neutral Ground, Boys & Girls Clubs, Orange County Department of Education initiatives, and OC GRIP are engaging youth earlier and addressing issues through restorative practices and family and community-based services, reducing reliance on court intervention, Patel said. Meanwhile, the department’s Core Correctional Practices program helps kids make constructive choices, build strong relationships and gain essential life skills.
“(T)hese approaches provide the tools youth need to solve problems and stay focused on their goals to build a safe, healthy, and victim-free future,” Patel said.
Orange County DA Spitzer points out that, over the decade of data we’re looking at, there have been huge changes to the law, reducing many (drug-related) felonies to misdemeanors. There also have been new programs that allow juveniles to have their cases diverted “in the interest of rehabilitation,” which Spitzer said is “the very spirit and goal of the juvenile system.”
Officials have been able to divert cases without ever forwarding them to the District Attorney’s Office for review, but the availability of those diversion programs has varied widely, Spitzer said. A theft case diverted by one police agency might be submitted to the D.A. for criminal review by another.
The county Probation Department recently received an $8 million, four-year grant to expand access to diversion programs for kids countywide. Spitzer said his office will continue working with Juvenile Court, law enforcement, Probation and community partners to reduce juvenile crime and the number of kids who commit repeat offenses. The broader goal, Spitzer said, is “to make Orange County safer for all our residents.”
All well and good, but perhaps still too far downstream for many struggling kids? Rising, the UCI researcher who champions earlier intervention, is a member of the county’s Juvenile Justice Commission. He also teaches “Credible Messengers Creative Arts Programming” inside Juvenile Hall.
The voices missing here are from the kids themselves. We’ll be hearing from them in coming weeks, and look forward to what they can teach us. Stay tuned.