If hockey is the ultimate team game as is so often suggested, Macklin Celebrini is throwing that concept on its side, breaking its ankles with a sick deke and blasting by it to lead the San Jose Sharks to another shocking victory.
Celebrini has become hockey’s ultimate one-man show, a personal wrecking ball that’s carried an otherwise underwhelming Sharks team to shocking heights: A playoff spot. No player is doing this much with this little, a fact that’s propelled Celebrini into the thick of the Hart Trophy race — deservingly so.
For the season, the box score numbers are getting ridiculous relative to his teammates. In 48 games, Celebrini has 72 points. The next closest Shark, Alex Wennberg, has 33 — or 45.8 percent of Celebrini’s output. Only one other team, Pittsburgh at 69.8 percent, has its second-place scorer below 70 percent of its top scorer.
Celebrini’s 72 points also mean he’s had a hand in 49.3 percent of San Jose’s goal output this year, a mark only bested by Connor McDavid at 50 percent. Looking at just primary points, though, gives Celebrini an edge of 39.7 percent to McDavid’s 36.5 percent. Celebrini’s primary production ratio has only been beaten three other times in the analytics era: McDavid in 2020-21 (45.4 percent), McDavid in 2018-19 (42.8 percent) and Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08 (42.4 percent).
Naturally, that all extends to Celebrini’s influence on San Jose’s goal differential. At five-on-five, the Sharks are up 47-33 in Celebrini’s minutes. They’re down 78-45 (!) otherwise. For context, the worst player five-on-five goal differential in the league is minus-33. And for the xG crowd, Celebrini has been a rock star of late after a slow start. Over his last 20 games, he’s at 55 percent on a team that’s at 42 percent without him on the ice.
What Celebrini is doing to carry San Jose this year is already in rarefied air, no matter what way you look at it, but when you put all the pieces together it starts to look even more special.
Celebrini entered Monday’s game against Florida with a Net Rating of plus-13.5, the fifth-highest mark in the league. The next closest Shark, Tyler Toffoli, sits at plus-3.3, which ranks 163rd. That’s a 10.2-goal margin that is the league’s widest by a respectable amount and arguably made more impressive by who the second player is. McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon also have a healthy lead on their sidekick (7.3 and 6.4 goals respectively), but there’s a difference between the sidekick being Leon Draisaitl or Cale Makar as opposed to Toffoli.
What Celebrini is on pace to do is almost unprecedented in the analytics era. Since 2007-08, there have been 20 seasons where a team’s top player was worth 10 more goals than their second-best player. The highest margin was Ovechkin in 2007-08, who was up 15.4 goals on Mike Green. A lot can change between now and the rest of the season, but a 10.2 goal margin over 47 games puts Celebrini on pace to eclipse that mark.
Considering the names on the list, the ability to carry a team to this degree is not only worthy of MVP discussion, it’s a special gift reserved for only the best of the best. That’s a group Celebrini is proving in real-time he’s a part of. Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla and Joe Thornton from one era followed by Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov in another is a direct testament to the level Celebrini has reached. Not to mention some of the other guys in between.
It’s Crosby who Celebrini’s game is often compared to and while his presence on the list is on the lighter side, that has a lot more to do with the amount of time he missed during his peak from 2010 to 2013. In 2010-11, for example, Crosby was on pace to beat the next best Penguin by 17.1 goals, a mark made even more impressive by the era.
As incredible as Celebrini is, the big thing that list above and everything leading up to it underscores is the need for a sidekick to help elevate Celebrini’s — and San Jose’s — game further. He needs his Malkin or his Draisaitl to help reach the next level. As much as we can control for teammate effects, it’s impossible to ignore the impact elite players have on each other to raise the bar and there’s likely a limit to how much value a player can add given his supporting cast.
Celebrini is testing that limit this year with a superb season without much help that’s carrying the Sharks to an unlikely playoff spot. For personal goals, there’s a strong argument that what Celebrini is doing is Hart-worthy. For team goals, he still needs help, and the next step to contention can’t rest solely on his shoulders. Celebrini may be putting a wrench in the old adage that hockey is a team game, enough to drag his team toward the playoffs by delivering so much value on his own, it just only goes so far.
Wherever the Sharks do end up this season, it’ll be Celebrini’s personal doing that got them there. He’s been special and has entered a realm of value that’s lining up with the greats at the same age. Celebrini is putting up a teenager season for the ages that is practically singular in its one-man accomplishment.
No Malkin, no Draisaitl — no problem.