California’s peak electricity demand will rise by roughly half by 2045, driven by increases in electric vehicles, data centers and building electrification, regulators predicted Wednesday.
What happened: The California Energy Commission predicted in its California Energy Demand Forecast from 2025 to 2045 that on the low end, peak energy demand in the California Independent System Operator system will rise from about 46,500 megawatts to 66,000 MW, a 42 percent jump. The midrange estimate is 53 percent, while the high end estimate predicts an increase of about 74,900 MW, a 61 percent spike.
Why it matters: The forecast, which shows electricity use soaring after decades of relatively stable demand, underpins state regulators’ long-term energy planning. The CEC, California Public Utilities Commission and CAISO draw from its figures when determining how much energy generation to require utilities to purchase, where to upgrade power lines and how to prevent future blackouts.
Driving factors: Despite the Trump administration’s elimination of electric vehicle incentives, California energy regulators still expect widespread EV adoption to be the top driver of peak energy demand growth.